Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Short Pick: Beware Of Cashless Earnings.............again


Summary
Titan Machinery sales and profits are down dramatically from 2013.
Margins are too small for A 3rd Party Retailer to compete with Manufacturers like Caterpillar and Deere.
Lowered International Revenue Assumptions from up 10 to 15% to merely up 2 to 5%.
Beware of Cashless Earnings! Negative Operating cash for 6 months  FY2021 Negative -($14 million).
Titan Machinery entire growth model through the years has simply been a roll up of mom and pops. The Consolidation story here has ended as the company has closed locations over the last 5 years.  Titan is simply a cyclical stock that should only deserve maybe a PE of 6 to 10 and not trade as a teenager any longer above $13 with a PE in a range of nearly 30X.
Another Year with Insiders selling ahead of this morning's miss.
Well the good news is that CNHI has a dealership like Titan that they can ship machinery to and boost CNHI's sales. Titan doesn't mind as their assets go up on the balance sheet and most of the inventory is carried at ZERO Interest on the FloorPlan Debt. Win Win. (or is it, wink, wink)
The History of this Wall Street game can be found here https://newsgrade.blogspot.com/2018/06/titan-machinery-co-founder-is-companys.html

Sunday, August 11, 2019

United States Stock Market Capitalization of the 50 Largest American Companies - iWeblists

Index     Dec 31, 2018  July 31, 2019    %
SP500          2506                 2980         +19%
DJIA           23,327              26,864        +15%
United States Stock Market Capitalization of the 50 Largest American Companies - iWeblists
Closing Market Capitalization as of July31,2019
with Percentage increase since Dec 31, 2018

Closing Market Cap on December 31, 2018





Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Hedgeye Shines Light on Farm Machinery & Equipment MFG


One of the top research firms on Wall Street is Hedgeye.
Yesterday on twitter a post by Jay Van Sciver included charts referencing Farm Machinery Equipment Manufacturers, John Deere Equipment Sales Price Realizations and Dealer Inventories.



HEDGEYE China Warning in 2017




Equities Research is Bearish the third party CNHI retailer Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN).
Titan has seen annual sales fall from $2.2 Billion to $1.2 Billion in 4 years and the company has lost over $130 million (aggregate) over that period. Titan has seen 6 directors resign including its co-founder who suddenly resigned as president after suspicious trading was done in the stock prior to a new release. 
Titan trades at over $15 a share with a $350 million market capitalization and the company is at RISK of defaulting on the Wells Fargo Indenture due May 1, 2019.
To Read the Titan Machinery Red Flags see links below. 

Titan Machinery Files 10Q Sending Stock to New YTD Low


Sunday, November 22, 2015

Jim Cramer Says Google’s Stock Is Heading to $800 a Share



Cramer Bullish : GOOGLE (GOOG), Sketchers (SKX), Walgreens, AT and T (T), Intel (INTC), AGN

JIM CRAMER recently filed a Form 4 with Securities and Exchange Commission to report he has added to his position the THESTREET (TST) where he is the founder and a director.
Shares of the TheStreet have gained 10% since his purchase on November 6,2015.



FOLLOW THESTREETTV AT TWITTER



Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Alert: TheStreet Reports Q3 Profit

After the close , TheStreet (NASDAQ: TST $1.44) reported 3rd quarter profit for the period ending September 30,2015.
TheStreet was expected to report a Q3 loss of ($0.03).

The stock average daily volume over the last 3 months was 34.000, today the stock traded above average volume of 349,000.
The stock has been trading at a 52 week low over the last several weeks. The stock pays a $0.10 a share dividend paid quarterly. At current levels the shares are yielding 6.9%.

Equities Research continues to rate TheStreet TST a Strong Buy.

34 million shares outstanding with $1.44 share price, the total market capitalization is $50 million.
TheStreet has zero debt and Subtracting the $30 million cash from the  $50 million market capitalization, the entire underlying business is currently being valued at $20 million.

Analyst at B. Reilly has a price target of $4.00 on  the shares as of this morning.

NOTES FROM 8K filed after the close: 


TheStreet (TST): Q3 2015 Revenue Increases 14%

Third quarter revenue of $16.7 million, up 14% year-over-year.
GAAP Net Income of $0.4 million, representing EPS of $0.01 versus a loss of $0.5 million, representing EPS of ($0.02) year-over-year.
Subscription Revenue of $13.7 million, up 17% year-over-year.
Media Revenue of $3.0 million, up 2% year-over-year.
Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities of $30.3 million.
Confirms full-year revenue guidance: $68 to $69 million.
Confirms full-year Adjusted EBITDA(1) guidance: $2.8 to $3.2 million.

Friday, October 2, 2015

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

TITN | Stock Price Chart for Titan Machinery Inc

TITN | Stock Price Chart for Titan Machinery Inc


This Roll Up Story is ending.









Monday, September 28, 2015

Titan Machinery Closed Week @ $11.42, Where is it Headed Next?

My opinion for the stock is that it heads down below the $5 range. 

The underlying business is shrinking dramatically. IN FY2013 they earned $42 million in net income and FY2015 they reported a loss of $31.5 million.

For the 1st 6 most of FY2016 they have loss ($0.29) , over $ 6 million loss.
Their credit lines were reduced by over $100 million and the covenants of their $150 million Indenture with Wells Fargo has had 6 amendment, the last being made earlier this year "After the company" was non compliant with the terms of the note.

The company faces tighter restrictions on the $WFC note and may be in jeopardy of violating the net income covenant for FY2016 Q3 when they report in December.

Aside from the weak fundamentals crippling the stock , the management has some very suspicious dealings.
Management entered into a long term $100 million contract with an outside entity that Management has an equity interest in. 

A year ago the company filed a 10Q and inflated their assets and understated losses and never deemed it necessary to re file that 10Q.
(by over 50%)

In May of this year the company filed a DEF 14A disclosing that the Founder would continue as President and asked the shareholders for the president to vote their shares via a proxy. After the DEF 14A filing, 4 days later, the founder resigned as President. No DEF 14A was re filed.

Of the 8 directors of the company in May 2015 , 3 have now resigned, including the CEO of CONN who resigned a week ago , effective immediately.

There has been suspicious trading in the stock, specifically around the resignation of the company's original auditor resigned over the 4th of July weekend in 2013.

The company has also had some personal selling (insider selling) after some hyped guidance that pumped up the stock price significantly up at the $29 level. (including an appearance on Jim Cramer's Mad Money.)

In June 2014, after the company reported FY2015Q2 , gave guidance that for the FY2015 ending in less than 6 months, that they would earn close to $1.00 a share in net income for the year ending Jan. 31,2015. Well less than 6 months later they reported a LOSS ($1.51) eps. A huge miss, 

The company is not a growth company any longer and is not profitable any more and should not be trading with a fwd PE 160.

Friday, June 5, 2015

Berkshire Hathaway Technical Sell Signal

Berkshire Hathaway has traded in line with the overall market through the latest bull market. Technically the Stock has been flagged with this bearish signal and if this flag plays out to the downside the overall market may be headed lower as well.


Wednesday, April 29, 2015"Gold is Only Answer" Fred Hickey Tweets "Stock Market is Toast",

Making Money When the Market Heads Lower

Friday, May 29, 2015

CoFounder Resigns as President Without Any Replacement In Sight

5 Analysts Participate in Questions and Answer Session Of Conference Call
Yesterday TITAN MACHINERY issued a press release with FY2016 Q1 financials followed by the company's conference call.

Analyst at Feltl Doesn't Participate in Conference Call Q & A but Upgrades Stock Immediately
Local Minnesota Analyst Feltl and Company (Brent R. Rystrom, Director of Research) upgraded Titan Machinery shares with a $20.50 price target without knowing who the new president of the Company will be. The company still has not even filed a 10Q yet.
Felti Upgraded shares and gives a price target that is 46% higher from current levels. (According to Felti company's current market cap under $300 million will grow to over $400 million).
Felti says company will go from a ($1.51) loss in FY2015 to a profit of $0.36 for FY2016, but they don't know who the new president will be that will create this dramatic turnaround?????
Feltl and Company makes a market in the securities of Titan Machinery

A cofounder of Titan Machinery that sits on the Board of Directors who is also the brother of current president is the chairman of the underwriting firm for Titan that is located in Minnesota called Cherry Tree Investments. This same director was once disclosed as owner of the outside entity of Dealer Sites LLC who recently increased  lease agreements with TITAN from $50 million to over $100 million.

TITAN MACHINERY (NASDAQ: TITN) is one bizarre stock!

TITAN MACHINERY COFOUNDER, Peter Christenson, announced on May 11,2015 that as of June 4,2015  he will no longer be president of the company.

On May 7,2015 Titan Machinery filed a (proxy) DEF 14A with the Securities and Exchange Commission stating that Peter Christianson would be president of the company.

WHAT HAPPEN over a 4 Day period that the CO FOUNDER of the Company changed his mind?

Why would the President of the company resign as president without there being a replacement for his $500,000 a year position?

When interviewed by the press the President said he couldn't comment because the company was in a "Quiet Period" because the company would be reporting FY2016 Q1 financials and after the numbers were released on May 28,2015 (yesterday) the management would then be able to comment.

The company held their conference call yesterday and never commented on why the President decided to step down and the Management never mentioned Who would be replacing him. None of the Analysts on the call cared to ask and no reason was ever disclosed.

It is almost 3 weeks now and Titan Management still has not named a replacement and next Thursday they will have a vacant president seat.

The company reported annual  FY2015 financials for the period ending January 31,2015 last month disclosing a loss of ($1.51) per share for the year. 7 months earlier the company had given guidance that they would earn $1.00 per share in that period.

Yesterday FY2016 Q1 financials were disclosed in an 8k and the company reported a loss for the quarter of $(0.29) per share. (As of 11am this morning no 10Q has yet to be filed with SEC)

3 Mutual funds control 42% of shares outstanding and there has been barely any sellers in the stock recently. The month of May 2015 is the smallest average daily volume in the stock (at 100,000 average shares per day for the month) since June 2010.

The company has be closing stores and revenues have declined dramatically.

Why is this company trading at a $300 million market capitalization and why does Felti believe it is worth over $400 million?

Follow the bouncing ball of related party transactions here.

Will Securities and Exchange Commission Comment On Another Titan Proxy?




Wednesday, May 27, 2015

What is TITAN Machinery really?

What is TITAN really?

A January 2008 IPO raising approx $60 million

January 2011 2.4 Million Shares @ $28.75 

A Spring 2011 Underwriting approx $60 million.

November 20011 500,000 @ $21.68 

A Spring 2012 $150 million Indenture.


Management (& Family) Outside Entities make all the money:
  • on leasing property to TITN.
  • sales commissions
  • underwriting fees
  • mgmt sold stock annually
  • having expenses, maintenance and fees on their outside entities properties paid by TITAN.
  • Brother-in-law generating millions of dollars worth of construction fees (questionable if its even needed)


TITAN MISSED FY2015 EPS GUIDANCE BY $62 Million

 Gave FY2015 EPS GUIDANCE OF $1.00  (In June 2014)
vs.
Actual FY2015  LOSS ($1.51)  (less than 7 Months Later)

In June 2014, Titan Machinery reported FY2015 1st quarter financials and gave forward annual EPS guidance for the year ending January 31,2015 on the high end of $1.00 per share.
The Company expects adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders to be in the range of $14.8 million to $21.1 million, and adjusted earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $0.70 to $1.00 based on estimated weighted average diluted common shares outstanding of 21.1 million. 
 In April 2015, Titan Machinery reported FY2015 year end EPS LOSS of $31 million ($1.51 per share)  for the period ending January 31,2015.


Pattern of Poor Guidance/Insider Selling into Hyped Guidance

April 11,2014 Titan Machinery's guidance yesterday was laughable. Yesterday Titan Machinery shares went flying higher after the company announced they missed revenue guidance for the Q4 FY2014 quarter by 10%. It was just 8 weeks ago in December 2013 when the company lowered their 4th quarter guidance with only 8 weeks before the quarter ended and they still missed by a wide margin. 
* Excluding non-cash items, totaling $7.8 million (or $0.37 per share), adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders for fiscal 2014 was $0.41 per diluted share.

April 2013 the company made the following guidance:
Income forecast of $2 to $2.30 per share. It reiterated its revenue forecast of $2.35 billion to $2.55 billion.
The Next month, May 2013 guidance was changed:
 The company now anticipates earning $1.70 to $2 per share, down from its prior forecast of $2 to $2.30 per share. It reiterated its revenue forecast of $2.35 billion to $2.55 billion. "  
The Next Month, June 2013, guidance:
  For the full year ending January 31, 2014, the Company anticipates revenue in the range of $2.35 billion to $2.55 billion, net income attributable to common stockholders in the range of $36.4 million to $42.8 million, and earnings per diluted share in the range of $1.70 to $2.00
September 2013 they made the following Guidance: 
For the full year ending January 31, 2014, the Company now expects revenue to be in the range of $2.25 billion to $2.45 billion compared to the previous range of $2.35 billion to $2.55 billion. The Company expects net income attributable to common stockholders to be in the range of $25.4 million to $31.8 million, and earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $1.20 to $1.50 based on estimated weighted average diluted common shares outstanding of 21.2 million, primarily reflecting the lower expected equipment margins. This compares to previous net income attributable to common stockholders guidance in the range of $36.4 million to $42.8 million, and earnings per diluted share in the range of $1.70 to $2.00 based on estimated weighted average diluted common shares outstanding of 21.4 million. 

December 2013 the following guidance 
The Company is adjusting its annual guidance based on increased visibility of market conditions. For the full year ending January 31, 2014, the Company now expects revenue to be in the range of $2.15 billion to $2.35 billion compared to the previous range of $2.25 billion to $2.45 billion. The Company expects net income attributable to common stockholders to be in the range of $11.6 million to $15.8 million, and earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $0.55 to $0.75 based on estimated weighted average diluted common shares outstanding of 21.1 million, primarily reflecting the lower expected equipment sales and margins. This compares to previous net income attributable to common stockholders guidance in the range of $25.4 million to $31.8 million, and earnings per diluted share in the range of $1.20 to $1.50 based on estimated weighted average diluted common shares outstanding of 21.2 million.
The Actual Results for FY2014 that the above guidance refered to :
Fiscal 2014 Full Year Results

For the full year ended January 31, 2014, revenue increased 1.3% to $2.23 billion from $2.20 billion last year. Gross profit margin for fiscal 2014 was 15.6%, compared to 15.4% last year. Pre-tax income for the fiscal 2014 was $18.4 million. Excluding the aforementioned non-cash impairment charge of $10.0 million, adjusted pre-tax income was $28.4 million, for a pre-tax margin of 1.3%. This compares to pre-tax income of $70.7 million, or a pre-tax margin of 3.2%, last year. GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders for fiscal 2014 was $8.7 million, or $0.41 per diluted share. Adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders for fiscal 2014 was $16.5 million, or $0.78 per diluted share. This compares to $42.0 million, or $2.00 per diluted share, last year.


 In June 2012:
After giving a $2.55-$2.75 range guidance company reported $2.00 EPS for year ending January 31,2013.
Instead of earning $53.8million to $58  million for year the company only reported $42million.
But Management's Mission was accomplished by getting stock up to $30 so they could sell shares @ $30.
The underwriter Cherry Tree (owned by director Tony Christianson, the brother of CEO, was compensated for the $150 million indenture offering in April of 2012. In June 2012 TITAN gave the following guidance in a press release:   

  "Net income attributable to common stockholders is expected to be in the range of $53.8 million to $58.0 million, resulting in earnings per diluted share range of $2.55 to $2.75". In July 2012 director Tony Christianson and director Irwin James both sold shares of TITAN (TITN) in the market place above $30 per share. 

 7/13/2011

  INSIDER SELLING:
On June 9,2011 Chairman David Meyer appeared on Jim Cramer's MAD MONEY  and touted TITAN MACHINERY's future. 30 days later DAVID MEYER SOLD 300,000 shares @ $27.80 and received proceeds of $8,340.00.00 and CEO Peter Christianson sold 200,000 shares $27.80 for proceeds of $5.56 million. 

Friday, December 12, 2014

After the close: William Blair Analysts Lowers Price Target on Titan to $10

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at a new 5 year low @ $11.75.

Titan Machinery $150 million convertible note closed at an all time low @ $72.38 w 12.03% yield.


Since the Equities Research Warning on February 1,2013 shares of Titan @ $29.07, the stock has declined 60% while the Standard & Poors 500  Index has advanced 33%. (source: bigchart.com)



Titan filed their FY2015 3rd Quarter 10Q for the period ending October 31,2014 on Wednesday. Included in the SEC disclosure were two footnotes:

After the close yesterday William Blair Analyst lowered Price target on Titan from $12 to $10.
Pre-market yesterday analyst at Stephens lowered Price Target on Titan.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014


$TITN LOWERS FULL YEAR EPS GUIDANCE to Loss Per Share ($0.02) to ($0.23).

 

From 10Q
NOTE 4—LINES OF CREDIT / FLOORPLAN PAYABLE

Floorplan Lines of Credit

Floorplan payable balances reflect the amount owed for new equipment inventory purchased from a manufacturer and for used equipment inventory, which is primarily purchased through trade-in on equipment sales. Certain of the manufacturers from which the Company purchases new equipment inventory offer financing on these purchases, either offered directly from the manufacturer or through the manufacturers’ captive finance subsidiaries. CNH Industrial America LLC's captive finance subsidiary, CNH Industrial Capital America LLC ("CNH Industrial Capital"), also provides financing of used equipment inventory. The Company also has floorplan payable balances with non-manufacturer lenders for new and used equipment inventory. Changes in manufacturer floorplan payable are reported as operating cash flows and changes in non-manufacturer floorplan payable are reported as financing cash flows in the Company's consolidated statements of cash flows.

As of October 31, 2014, the Company had discretionary floorplan lines of credit for equipment inventory purchases totaling approximately $1.16 billion, which includes a $350.0 million Floorplan Payable Line with a group of banks led by Wells Fargo Bank, National Association ("Wells Fargo"), a $450.0 million credit facility with CNH Industrial Capital, a $225.0 million credit facility with Agricredit Acceptance LLC and the U.S. dollar equivalent of $135.0 million in credit facilities related to our foreign subsidiaries. Floorplan payables relating to these credit facilities totaled approximately $696.9 million of the total floorplan payable balance of $761.2 million outstanding as of October 31, 2014 and $692.8 million of the total floorplan payable balance of $750.5 million outstanding as of January 31, 2014. As of October 31, 2014, the Company had approximately $411.7 million in available borrowings remaining under these lines of credit (net of adjustments based on borrowing base calculations and standby letters of credit under the Wells Fargo credit agreement, and rental fleet financing and other acquisition-related financing arrangements under the CNH Industrial Capital credit agreement). The U.S. floorplan payables carried various interest rates primarily ranging from 2.78% to 4.98%, and the foreign floorplan payables carried various interest rates primarily ranging from 1.59% to 10.50%, as of October 31, 2014.

Effective October 31, 2014, the Company amended its credit facility with Wells Fargo. The amendment, among other things, replaced the consolidated net income financial covenant with a minimum consolidated income before income taxes

10


covenant, calculated as the income before income taxes for the last four quarters, adjusted for certain impairment charges, realignment charges, and foreign currency remeasurement losses resulting from a devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia. The minimum income before income tax covenant is $10.0 million for the four quarter period ended October 31, 2014, $5.0 million for the period ended January 31, 2015, $6.0 million for each of the two periods ended April 30, 2015 and July 31, 2015, $10.0 million for each of the two periods ended October 31, 2015 and January 31, 2016, and $15.0 million for each period thereafter. The amendment also modified certain borrowing base advance rates and changed the interest rate margin from 1.5% to 2.625% to 1.5% to 2.875% per annum.

Effective October 31, 2014, the Company also amended its credit facility with CNH Industrial Capital. The amendment, amongst other things, replaced the minimum debt service ratio financial covenant with a minimum fixed charge coverage ratio financial covenant of not less than 1.25:1.00, and added or modified related definitions.

Working Capital Line of Credit
As of October 31, 2014, the Company had a $112.5 million working capital line of credit under the credit facility with Wells Fargo. The Company had $75.6 million and $47.8 million outstanding on its working capital line of credit as of October 31, 2014 and January 31, 2014, respectively. Amounts outstanding are recorded as long-term debt, within long-term liabilities on the consolidated balance sheets, as the Company does not have an obligation to repay amounts borrowed within one year.


NOTE 5—SENIOR CONVERTIBLE NOTES
The Company’s 3.75% Senior Convertible Notes issued on April 24, 2012 (“Convertible Notes”) consisted of the following:









October 31, 2014
January 31, 2014
(in thousands except conversion
rate and conversion price)
Principal value
$
150,000

$
150,000

Unamortized debt discount
(18,544
)
(21,107
)
Carrying value of senior convertible notes
$
131,456

$
128,893

Carrying value of equity component, net of deferred taxes
$
15,546

$
15,546

Conversion rate (shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes)
23.1626

Conversion price (per share of common stock)
$
43.17

     
The Company recognized interest expense associated with its Senior Convertible Notes as follows:

















Three Months Ended October 31,
Nine Months Ended October 31,
2014
2013
2014
2013
(in thousands)
(in thousands)
Cash Interest Expense
Coupon interest expense
$
1,406

$
1,406

$
4,219

$
4,219

Noncash Interest Expense
Amortization of debt discount
864

806

2,563

2,392

Amortization of transaction costs
135

131

402

391

$
2,405

$
2,343

$
7,184

$
7,002


As of October 31, 2014, the unamortized debt discount will be amortized over a remaining period of approximately 4.5 years. As of October 31, 2014 and January 31, 2014, the if-converted value of the Senior Convertible Notes does not exceed the principal balance. The effective interest rate of the liability component was equal to 7.0% for each of the statements of operations periods presented.