Showing posts with label Bearish. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bearish. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Hedgeye Shines Light on Farm Machinery & Equipment MFG


One of the top research firms on Wall Street is Hedgeye.
Yesterday on twitter a post by Jay Van Sciver included charts referencing Farm Machinery Equipment Manufacturers, John Deere Equipment Sales Price Realizations and Dealer Inventories.



HEDGEYE China Warning in 2017




Equities Research is Bearish the third party CNHI retailer Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN).
Titan has seen annual sales fall from $2.2 Billion to $1.2 Billion in 4 years and the company has lost over $130 million (aggregate) over that period. Titan has seen 6 directors resign including its co-founder who suddenly resigned as president after suspicious trading was done in the stock prior to a new release. 
Titan trades at over $15 a share with a $350 million market capitalization and the company is at RISK of defaulting on the Wells Fargo Indenture due May 1, 2019.
To Read the Titan Machinery Red Flags see links below. 

Titan Machinery Files 10Q Sending Stock to New YTD Low


Monday, September 28, 2015

Titan Machinery Closed Week @ $11.42, Where is it Headed Next?

My opinion for the stock is that it heads down below the $5 range. 

The underlying business is shrinking dramatically. IN FY2013 they earned $42 million in net income and FY2015 they reported a loss of $31.5 million.

For the 1st 6 most of FY2016 they have loss ($0.29) , over $ 6 million loss.
Their credit lines were reduced by over $100 million and the covenants of their $150 million Indenture with Wells Fargo has had 6 amendment, the last being made earlier this year "After the company" was non compliant with the terms of the note.

The company faces tighter restrictions on the $WFC note and may be in jeopardy of violating the net income covenant for FY2016 Q3 when they report in December.

Aside from the weak fundamentals crippling the stock , the management has some very suspicious dealings.
Management entered into a long term $100 million contract with an outside entity that Management has an equity interest in. 

A year ago the company filed a 10Q and inflated their assets and understated losses and never deemed it necessary to re file that 10Q.
(by over 50%)

In May of this year the company filed a DEF 14A disclosing that the Founder would continue as President and asked the shareholders for the president to vote their shares via a proxy. After the DEF 14A filing, 4 days later, the founder resigned as President. No DEF 14A was re filed.

Of the 8 directors of the company in May 2015 , 3 have now resigned, including the CEO of CONN who resigned a week ago , effective immediately.

There has been suspicious trading in the stock, specifically around the resignation of the company's original auditor resigned over the 4th of July weekend in 2013.

The company has also had some personal selling (insider selling) after some hyped guidance that pumped up the stock price significantly up at the $29 level. (including an appearance on Jim Cramer's Mad Money.)

In June 2014, after the company reported FY2015Q2 , gave guidance that for the FY2015 ending in less than 6 months, that they would earn close to $1.00 a share in net income for the year ending Jan. 31,2015. Well less than 6 months later they reported a LOSS ($1.51) eps. A huge miss, 

The company is not a growth company any longer and is not profitable any more and should not be trading with a fwd PE 160.

Friday, September 4, 2015

Keep Your Eyes on the Numbers : Sales and Earnings

Titan Machinery closed at a new 5 year low yesterday $10.55

2nd Quarter financials are due out on September 9,2015 pre market.




$TITN revenue for ttm ending 4/30/2015 $1.7 billion vs $2.25 billion for ttm ending 4/30/2014 . $500 million decline. -20.9% lower




A look At Q2 Releases from FY2015, FY2014, FY2013



Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Monday, September 10, 2012


Tuesday, September 1, 2015

TITAN MACHINERY Reports Q2 on September 9th

According to Vanguard, Titan Machinery expects to earn $0.03 for FY2016 Q2 

At 8am this morning the following summary appeared on Vanguard Website. A look below this will show the changes made to this website summary as of 12:50pm today.
  • Earnings Estimates are expected to be $0.02 for Q2 2016, and $0.21 for Q3 2016 while Q4 2016 estimates are steadily falling to $0.02. TITN's next earnings announcement is scheduled for the week of 9/9."




AT 12:50pm today the summary read as follows:

  • "Earnings Estimates are expected to be $0.03 for Q2 2016, and $0.21 for Q3 2016 while Q4 2016 estimates are steadily falling to $0.02. TITN's next earnings announcement is scheduled for the week of 9/9."




A look At Q2 Releases from FY2015, FY2014, FY2013



Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Monday, September 10, 2012

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Thanks For Following !!! High Quality Followers

My handle on twitter is @stockpicker908 , my original handle was @GFNNstock

I don't have that many followers, but i really appreciate these bright folks that interact with me. Not only are they smart , but they are good guys/ladies on the up and up.

The Tweet and kind words in my post from Roddy Boyd is the greatest compliment that I ever received in my life! Thank You Roddy Boyd 

Everyone receiving this should visit and bookmark Roddy Boyd's site.





































Friday, September 12, 2014

TITAN MACHINERY Lowers FY2015 EPS Guidance: $0.00-$0.30

Titan Machinery reported a loss for their third consecutive quarter on Tuesday morning that sent shares down to a new 4 year low @ $11.85, a price that it had previously traded at in March 2010.
    
Aside from lowering their net income guidance dramatically, the company also lowered their cash flow and sales outlook as well.


chart source: (bigcharts.com) click chart to enlarge.


The stock has closed under $14 per share for 21 consecutive days and saw a brief spike yesterday after the CEO bought 90,000 shares @ 13.03. The trade in my opinion is insignificant in light of the most recent prior trade the CEO did when he  appeared on Jim Cramer's MAD MONEY  and touted TITAN MACHINERY's future. 30 days later DAVID MEYER SOLD 300,000 shares @ $27.80 and received proceeds of $8,340.00.00 and CEO Peter Christianson sold 200,000 shares $27.80 for proceeds of $5.56 million. (more on Hyping of Shares (Unrealistic Guidance) that Directors used to take advantage of Stock Sales can be found here)

 
In their FY2015 2nd quarter 10Q filed on Tuesday afternoon with the Securities and Exchange Commission the company stated that they realized that they had inflated their assets and understated their losses in their 1st quarter 10Q filed back in June. Although they previously reported an Earnings Per LOSS of ($0.20) for Q1, it came to their attention that had actually loss ($0.31) for the quarter. The company determined that the error on the loss of over 50% was immaterial and that they won't deem it necessary to Refile their FY2015 Q1 10Q. I am wondering if the SEC will think otherwise?
  •  "The incorrect classification of the VAT asset as a non-monetary asset coupled with the significant devaluation of the UAH resulted in an overstatement of the Company’s assets (Prepaid expenses and other) as of April 30, 2014 and an understatement of the Company’s loss (Interest income and other income (expense)) for the three months ended April 30, 2014. This correction increased the Company’s Net Loss Attributable to Titan Machinery Inc. by $2.3 million (from the previously reported $4.2 million to $6.5 million) and increased the diluted loss per share by $0.11 (from the previously reported $0.20 loss per share to a $0.31 loss per share). This correction is reflected in the accompanying unaudited Consolidated Statements of Operations for the six-month period ended July 31, 2014.

    Based on an evaluation of all relevant factors, the Company concluded that this correction was immaterial to the Company’s results for the three months ended April 30, 2014; therefore, the Company determined that an amendment of its previously filed Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended April 30, 2014 was not necessary, and the correction will be reflected in future 10-K and 10-Q filings."




Wall Street Money Mangers and Brokerages Are Looking the Other Way

The trailing twelve months ending July 31,2014 Titan has total net income of $690,000 and the stock @$13 a share values the company at $275 million. (or a PE of 398 on ttm basis)

With FY 2015 EPS Guidance now at $0.00 to $0.30 per share , if use the mid range of $0.15 eps, the shares are currently trading at PE of nearly 100!

Why is there such a disconnect with the fundamentals of this underlying business and the price of its stock market valuation? I am seriously thinking that these shares may be being manipulated. One director on the board who is also a founder of the company is the general partner of an underwriting firm for the company and may know more about why shares trade at such a huge premium. 

Management of Titan can blame price of corn, the weak construction & agricultural economy,  poor farming, the unrest with their footprint in the UKRAINE, but I blame The company's poor financial condition on GREED AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS



Thursday, August 21, 2014

Titan Machinery Bond (2019) Makes Third New YTD Low In 2 Weeks

 #bearish

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75%  Maturity:2019.
Closed Yesterday:  $81.13 w 8.73% yield.


Date of Offering : April 18,2012 
Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible




Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.50 on volume of 91,868 shares. The stock has closed below $14 for the sixth consecutive session.

Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .


  •  FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
  •  April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location.

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Titan Machinery Reports Q1 Loss of ($0.20)