Showing posts with label Bear. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bear. Show all posts

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Short Pick: Beware Of Cashless Earnings.............again


Summary
Titan Machinery sales and profits are down dramatically from 2013.
Margins are too small for A 3rd Party Retailer to compete with Manufacturers like Caterpillar and Deere.
Lowered International Revenue Assumptions from up 10 to 15% to merely up 2 to 5%.
Beware of Cashless Earnings! Negative Operating cash for 6 months  FY2021 Negative -($14 million).
Titan Machinery entire growth model through the years has simply been a roll up of mom and pops. The Consolidation story here has ended as the company has closed locations over the last 5 years.  Titan is simply a cyclical stock that should only deserve maybe a PE of 6 to 10 and not trade as a teenager any longer above $13 with a PE in a range of nearly 30X.
Another Year with Insiders selling ahead of this morning's miss.
Well the good news is that CNHI has a dealership like Titan that they can ship machinery to and boost CNHI's sales. Titan doesn't mind as their assets go up on the balance sheet and most of the inventory is carried at ZERO Interest on the FloorPlan Debt. Win Win. (or is it, wink, wink)
The History of this Wall Street game can be found here https://newsgrade.blogspot.com/2018/06/titan-machinery-co-founder-is-companys.html

Friday, June 8, 2018

Titan Machinery Files 10Q Sending Stock to New YTD Low





Securities and Exchange Commission Division of Corporate Finance has commented on Titan Machinery's past Filings, IS it time for them to return? 
Is it Time for FINRA and SEC to start looking at the unusual trading ahead of news in the stock of Titan?
    Titan Machinery laid off 14% of their American workers and closed 15 locations in last year to cut costs. Why did they pay one landlord in April 2018 $3 million to terminate a lease? Would it not have been in the best interest of the shareholders to keep the location? Who was the landlord of that location? was it a related party transaction? who was responsible for signing that lease and when was it signed and what was the term of that lease?
Why didn't they sell the 15 locations? Were all 15 locations worthless? If one location cost $3 million to terminate a lease does that mean all 100 locations are worthless? The company has purchased over 50 acquisitions over last two decades and are closing the stores instead of selling the stores. The company only has $50 million in cash and $395 million in current liabilities as of April 30,2018. But with the Wells Fargo Indenture due May 1,2019, the $68 million note is now moved from long term debt and needs to be added to the current liability of $395 million.


          




 In the Annual Report (10K) there is no mention that the company is in risk of going bankrupt but instead says if they violate covenants that they "would work with lenders" 


 
In 2017 the CEO said company was closing 15 locations to cut cost and laid off a significant amount of employees. This is what Wall Street wanted to hear and the stock SkyRocketed. The CEO sold over $2 million worth of stock with some sales above $21. While the COO has sold 26% of his position at $24 a share. Makes one wonder if the real reason for the store closings was for the stock to go up so they could ring their personal cash registers. The CFO was granted 149% performance Bonus for FY2018 year end.
Also during FY2018 the co-founder of the company who abruptly resigned as the President received the balance of $700,000 of his severance package. (There was no mention whether he and his spouse will still have use of aircraft company has an ownership.)
   Titan Machinery disclosed in their 10Q yesterday for the first time that Equipment revenue is made up of NonCash Consideration of equipment trade ins. How did the NonCash Consideration values contribute to the improved profit margins on the equipment sales figure? Why didn't Deloitte want this disclosed in the past? Was all the Inventory recently liquidated at auctions for a fraction on the dollar originally booked as NonCash Consideration when it was originally accepted in trade ins? what values were given on the trade-ins and how over priced were those assets inflated?  How did the NonCash Considerations effect the BONUSES and Stock Grants that were received by the Officers of the company as reward for reaching Sales milestones over the years. Note: In most recent 10K, The officers received 149% Bonuses.
      TItan Machinery Current Liabilities increased from $320 to $390 million. The Wells Fargo Indenture due May 1,2019 is approximately $70 million and the company only has $50 million cash. Titan generated negative operational cash flow of Negative $27 million in Q1. a decrease of $68 million vs Fy2018 Q1 . with negative cash flow the co may need to Raise Capital via a Debt Underwriting or an equity raise. The interest from more debt will eat any chance of a profit and additional shares thru an issuance of more stock will dilute shareholders.
In its most recent 10Q Titan Machinery disclosed for the first time that they use non cash consideration to account for equipment revenue.
This practice has never been disclosed before.
The company prior to Q filing a week earlier made a press release touting their dramatically improved equipment profit margins.
I question whether the co used non cash consideration to account for equipment revenue in the past? If so, I question the accuracy of prior filings.  The company reported nearly $2 billion in equipment revenue in the past and now equipment rev is less than $1 billion annually.
In the last 18 months the company has had to LIQUIDATE USED EQUIPMENT inventory at a fraction on the dollar to generate enough cash to pay debt and pay off the severance agreement  to their co founder who abruptly resigned as president after a DEF14 A was filed.
If the Used Equipment in the past was accounted for as non cash consideration, is it possible that those trade in values were seriously inflated to record higher revenue at the time, only to have those trade ins eventually sold for discounts at auctions?
there are plenty of other questionable disclosures that i have found and I have included them in my report (there are many links within the report) https://newsgrade.blogspot.com/2018/06/titan-machinery-files-10q-sending-stock.html









Also note, the company admitted that they inflated assets and under reported losses by 50% in a 10Q, but never restated the 10Q.
There are many related party transactions in the disclosure through out the years. Specifically $100 million worth of leases with an outside entity that management has (had) an equity stake in.  
In the company's most recent DEF14A there is a new STOCK OWNERSHIP guideline for Officers and directors stating that the officers and directors NEED to increase their holdings in the stock based on the Price of the common stock as per its dollar value. 
Also in the most recent DEF 14 the Officers received bonuses based on the company's sales benchmarks. Is there a conflict with the non cash considerations values used to figure revenue numbers?
Deloitte Audited Related Fees increased from $25k to $61k  over last last FY. Meanwhile Company sales declined dramatically. 
A co founder of the company who sits on the board is also the underwriter of the public company and receives fees. Adam Smith Investments is an outside entity controlled by this Director and Adam Smith files with SEC as a Promotor.
Company closed 15 locations in last year to cut cost. In latest 10Q they disclosed that in April 2018 they paid $3 million to terminate one lease.  I want to know who owned that location? when was lease signed? what was the term? And what it not have been in the Best interest of shareholders to keep location open?  How did the company cut costs by closing the location when they paid $3 million to terminate the lease?
The company discloses their Used and New Equipment Inventories but don't disclose the breakdown of their USED and New Equipment revenues in their 10Q. They also claim to be in the equipment rental business but according to 10Q only rental revenue came in the USA construction business and almost nil for international and agriculture divisions.  Also note the revenue for the rental segment revenue line over each quarter and then notice how in most recent 10Q the rental profit and margins declined dramatically while sales barely slipped. More importantly the gross profit of the rental business all of a sudden made up significantly less of the gross profit of the four divisions.
International revenue are not broken down by construction and agriculture for some reason. never ever.
Company also has a history of Directors leaving. Six of Eight Directors left within a 2 year period.
Also a local minnesota penny stock brokerage firm called FELTL upgraded the stock a couple years ago stating that Titan would earn over $20 Million in Net Income and gave the stock a $40 plus price target. The company has not earned a profit in over 4 years and have lost over $130 million (aggregate) in that time frame.

There are so many notes I have that you can find in my link.







FY2019 Q1 10Q Highlights:




















Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN $17.34) reported FY2019 Q1 financials last week in a press release on Thursday May 31st pre-market followed by a brief Conference Call.  Titan stock traded volume over 900,000 shares and closed Thursday @ $18.09 down $2.93 (-14%) from Wednesday's close of $21.02.
Yesterday morning Titan Machinery filed FY2019 10Q with the Securities & Exchange Commission and shares hit a New intra day Year To Date low of $17.00 before closing the day @ $17.34, down $0.68  (-3.77%)  for the day.
Since Reaching a 52 week intra-day high on March 29th @ $25.09 the shares are now down $7.75 declining 31% in ten weeks. The S&P 500 Index has gained 5% over the same time frame.

Titan Machinery is a retailer of Agriculture and Construction Equipment based in Midwest USA with International locations in Europe. According to the company's disclosure the company leases their locations. At the current stock price the market capitalization is approximately $400 million.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PRESS RELEASE LAST WEEK prior to today's 10Q (CLICK HERE)

Cliff Notes









Monday, November 13, 2017

Equities Research Removes Overstock From Buy List: Drops Coverage

This Bull is Giving Up
Over the Summer I read an article about Overstock (NASDAQ OSTK: $56.30) at ZeroHedge.  I learned more about the ICO space after visiting the Securities and Exchange Commission web site and thought that Overstock was on to something and appeared to be a first mover in the blockchain technology space. In late August  Overstock reported their quarterly financials that were not that impressive and I didn't find the stock overvalued to be a short pick nor did I think it was so cheap that it was attractive to be a long pick. But after reading the Conference Call transcript and hearing more about the ICO space, I thought it would be a good idea for my subscribers to  speculate on and I added it to my August 25th Long Idea List for subscribers and wrote in my note that I thought shares could fetch over $100 if it could get caught up into the ICO euphoria.
Well within 3 months the shares have skyrocketed up nearly $37.00 for a 188% gain.

This past week on the World Wide Web, specifically Twitter, Overstock has erupted into a Bull/Bear battle. I avoid battle ground stocks and have decided to remove OSTK from my buy list and suggest my subscribers take profits and that I will no longer be covering this ticker.
I may be very wrong and the shares may go to $100+, but I would rather be conservative and safe, it would be horrible if the shares returned to the teens and subscribers end up not making a dime.

The company does not have that many shares outstanding and with a large short interest the shares can really fly but I would rather stick to fundamentals and avoid this hot story.
Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for OSTK

Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

Thursday, December 3, 2015

TITAN Reports Q3 , Misses on Revenue and EPS; Lowers Guidance

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) reported FY2016 3rd quarter financials this morning.

$TITN Reports Q3 Revenue $344 Million , Misses $416 Milllion Revenue Estimates by $72 Million -17%







Tuesday, November 3, 2015

TITN | Stock Price Chart for Titan Machinery Inc

TITN | Stock Price Chart for Titan Machinery Inc


This Roll Up Story is ending.









Saturday, September 19, 2015

#FridayNightDump , The Best Time to Hide

When Markets close on Friday nearly every market participant from brokers, analysts, investors, money managers and even the media flee their terminals and turn their attention to their personal lives until they boot up again on Monday morning. Monday is when everyone logs back on gets plugged back into the market pulse and are bombarded with the latest news of the morning.

Experienced management from public companies that are very crafty and slick who wish to hide SEC disclosure file any unfavorable news on Friday Nights when everyone is away knowing that when the new week starts, last week's news is buried. Michelle Leder of @Footnoted coined Friday Night Filings as the #FridayNightDump




Journal of Accounting and Economics published research by professors from Cornell University and Simon Fraser University unveiling statistics of Friday Night Filers.

"Abstract

Using combinations of weekdays and times of day (before, during, and after trading hours) of earnings announcements, we examine whether managers attempt to strategically time these announcements. We document that the worst earnings news is announced on Friday evening and find robust evidence that only Friday evening announcements represent managers’ rational opportunistic behavior. Friday evening announcements are followed by insider trading in the direction of earnings news and the largest post-earnings announcement drift. Managers also attempt to reduce interaction with investors and hide more than just earnings news by announcing on Friday evening. We find that Friday evening announcements occur later in the evening than announcements on other evenings, firms have a reduced propensity to hold conference calls, and major firm restructuring events are relatively more likely to occur after Friday evening announcements."
Michelle Leder of *Footnoted is one of the best follows on all

of Twitter. Every Friday night she posts about public 

companies who sneak in SEC filings before the 

weekend,.... sometimes to simply avoid being noticed. 


July 10,2015 report: 

When is the Best Time to Hide Earnings News?


Wednesday, September 9, 2015

TITAN Machinery Sales Decline 25%











Friday, August 28, 2015

Titan Machinery Closes at New 66 Month Low

February 2013 Warning TITN vs S&P 500 index
source : bigcharts.com









Friday, June 5, 2015

Berkshire Hathaway Technical Sell Signal

Berkshire Hathaway has traded in line with the overall market through the latest bull market. Technically the Stock has been flagged with this bearish signal and if this flag plays out to the downside the overall market may be headed lower as well.


Wednesday, April 29, 2015"Gold is Only Answer" Fred Hickey Tweets "Stock Market is Toast",

Making Money When the Market Heads Lower