Showing posts with label Under Armour. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Under Armour. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Under Armour Stock Down 36%
Under Armour (NYSE: UA $30.79) closed yesterday down 36% since closing @ $48.20 (adjusted for split) on November 2,2015. Over the Same 1 year period the S&P500 Index which closed yesterday @ 2097 is down a mere 7 points from November 2,2015 close @ 2097 (is flat.)
The company filed their 3rd quarter 10Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday.
Highlights from 10Q
- DEBT INCREASES to Over $1 Billion
- Related Party Transactions : CEO Kevin Plank entity Sagamore Development Holdings sold property for $70.3 million to Under Armour. According this news story the sale price was more than twice what Plank paid for the property in 2014.
- Allowance for Doubtful Accounts As of 9/30/16 $33.6 million, 12/31/15 $5.9 million 9/30/15 $6.3 million.
- Under Armour trailing 9 qtrs (aggregate) Negative -($280 Million) operational cashflow. $1 Billion/debt
- Company Improved EPS growth due to lower Q3 2016 (32.6%) tax rate vs Q3 2015 (38.8%)
- Company enjoys higher gross profit margins because they record shipping and handling fees as net revenue but expense the cost as selling and general administrative expenses vs cost of revenue. The $25.7 million in Q3 charged in SG&A helped gross profit increase from 45.7% to 47.5%.
- Company Recorded more than $65 Million of Net Revenue from shipping and handling fees for the first 9 months of 2016 up from $40 million attributed to net sales in first nine months of 2015
Equities Research Warning on Monday October 24th, the day prior to the 3rd Quarter Earning press release.
Below is the performance of the October Put Options from Monday the 24th to Friday October 28th.
Put Prices on Friday October 28
Monday, October 24, 2016
Short Pick: Under Armour Hype Will Take Back Seat To Weak Fundamentals This Week
Under Armour (NYSE: UA) will report 3rd quarter financials on Tuesday and Wall Street continues to be Bullish.
Equities Research continues to Warn Investors to stay away from this high flyer and focus on the weak fundamentals and not the Hype! At end of day the rising debt, high interest expenses and declining operational cash flow will be reflected into a lower stock price.
Trade Card from Capital Market Laboratory
Performance of Recent Short Picks from EQUITIES RESEARCH
Equities Research continues to Warn Investors to stay away from this high flyer and focus on the weak fundamentals and not the Hype! At end of day the rising debt, high interest expenses and declining operational cash flow will be reflected into a lower stock price.
Trade Card from Capital Market Laboratory
UNDER ARMOUR WARNING MARCH 2016
Equities Research Short Pick Under Armour August 2007 Short @ $68. Shares slid to $15
Equities Research Short Pick Under Armour August 2007 Short @ $68. Shares slid to $15
Performance of Recent Short Picks from EQUITIES RESEARCH
- Titan Machinery : More Related Party Transactions
- Titan Machinery: Directors Draining All Cash In Related Party Deals
Friday, August 12, 2016
Summer 2016 Newsletter
(issued on July 1,2016 to paid subscribers)
Long Picks :
Symbid (SBID) $0.17 (Equity Crowdfunding)
MeetMe,Inc (MEET) $5.33
Sabre Corporation (SABR) $26.79
Short Picks
Under Armour (UA) $40.13
Titan Machinery (TITN) $ $11.15
Fundamental Charts
Disclaimer.
All Newsletters, published by Equities Research, LLC , does not constitute a recommendation by Equities Research, LLC to buy, sell, hold any security, or to follow any particular trading or investment strategy. Also, the information provided should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. An investor's best course of action must be based upon individual circumstances. EquitiesResearch.com shall not be liable for any damages or costs of any type arising out of or in any way connected with your use of The Newsletters, or any of our services. EquitiesResearch.com, its officers and employees may buy and sell any position in the securities or companies mentioned |
| Content copyright 2010-2016. Equities Research LLC. All rights reserved |
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Under Armour Cash Flow Should Have Investors Running Away
"Stocklemon believes that StockDiagnostics.com is one of the best stock advisory sites on the web. It judges companies based on a proprietary OPS rating and covers both long and short positions."---------September 22,2003 Andrew Left founder of Citron Research
about Equities Research @stockpicker908 tweeter handle
(my former twitter handle was @GFNNStock)
"From time to time I'm asked about analysts, diggers whose work I really respect, who do things well. Tom Renna, @GFNNstock, is a must follow— Roddy Boyd (@BoydRoddy) September 7, 2013
Feb. 5,2015 -- Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank talks about why he's buying the MyFitnessPal and Endomondo apps for a total of about $560 million.
Equities Research Looks at Under Armour
*Negative Cash Flow (~goodwill $472 million)
*Class Action Lawsuit Settlement
*CEO New Stock Trading Plan
On Thursday morning Under Armour (NYSE: UA) reported FY2015 earnings sending the stock $20 higher from $65.58 to close the week @ $85.43. Up 30% in two days.Record Sales and earnings were super impressive, but a close look at the cash flow statement raises a RED FLAG.
note: As of Sunday (1/31/16) Under Armour has not yet filed their 10K annual report with the Securities and Exchange Commission as of this morning so we are not able to dig deep into footnotes and other exhibits at this time.
A look at the 8K filed on Thursday can be found here.
Before I jump to the FY2015 Negative $44 Million Operational Cash Flow, lets look at 2 recent SEC filings that should make investors wonder how many total shares are really outstanding when including Class A, Class B and Class C shares.
Shares Fall 8.5% in 1 day
On November 12,2015 Under Armour traded at $94.16 with volume of 3 million shares.
On November 13,2015 Under Armour traded at $86.08 with volume of 7 million shares.
What happened?
At 10am November 12th CEO Kevin Plank filed this SC 13D/A with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
"(Kevin Plank) entered into a pre-arranged stock trading plan to sell shares of the Issuer’s Class B Common Stock and, if and when issued, the Issuer’s Class C Common Stock."
"If the Reporting Person completes all the planned sales under this trading plan, he would beneficially own 35,700,000 shares of Class B Common Stock and Class A Common Stock, representing approximately 16.6% of the total shares of Class A and Class B Common Stock outstanding as of September 30, 2015 and representing approximately 66.5% of the combined voting power of the Issuer outstanding as of September 30, 2015".
- CEO Kevin Plank sold 450,000 shares November 23rd. Sold at an ave price of $91.99,( $41,395,500.00)
Consolidated Class Action Lawsuit
August 14,2015 this DEFA 14A filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission was filed.
"Under Armour ..is currently involved in a consolidated class action lawsuit brought against the Company and the members of the Company’s Board of Directors on behalf of purported stockholders of the Company in connection with the creation by the Company of a new class of common stock, referred to as the Class C common stock, par value $0.0003 1/3 per share"LAWSUIT SETTLEMENT OCTOBER 2015
Shares declined from an all time high above $100 in October to a 52 week low in January 2016
October 7,2015 8K Settlement
October 13,2015 8K COO/CFO Departure
Are You Still Long?
Operational Cash Flow for FY2015 was NEGATIVE $44 Million!
vs
Operational Cash Flow FY2014 of Positive $219 Million.
Year over Year Operational Cash Flow declined by $263 Million
Operational Cash Flow
FY2010: $50 million
FY2011: $15 million
Fy2012: $200million
FY2013: $120 million
FY2014: $219 million
FY2015: NEGATIVE ($44 Million)
Cash Flow used in 2 Acquisitions during 2015.
$475 million for MyPalFitness.com
$85 million for Endomondo
$560 Million total cost,
$472 million GOODWILL
Under Armour
Stock Price has had a History of Following Cash Flow.
November 18,2005 IPO
Under Writer: Goldman Sachs. 9.5 million shares @ $13 (adj for 2 (2 for 1)splits $3.25).
Shares went from $13 to $68 on August 21,2007.
Enter Equities Research
Equities Research went bearish (A-E) on UA at $68 to $15 before going Bullish.(F)
A Short $68 (70% profit in 15 months)
Hottest Stock with Weakest Cash FLow August 21,2007 $68
Hottest Stock with Weakest Cash FLow August 21,2007 $68
B.Short $48 (58% profit in 1 year)
Large Caps May Not Always Be Less Speculative
C. Short $ 45 (55% profit in 9 months)
Large Caps May Not Always Be Less Speculative
C. Short $ 45 (55% profit in 9 months)
Love Your Valentine, Not Your Stocks
D. Short $38 (47% profit in 3 months)
D. Short $38 (47% profit in 3 months)
Beware: Standard & Poors Adds A Poor Quality Stock to Index
E. Short $33 (40% profit in 3 months)
Easy Money : SHORT UNDER ARMOURE. Short $33 (40% profit in 3 months)
F. long $15 GFNN news story upgrade
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Renna Warning on Under Armour Mentioned on CNBC-TV (Herb Greenberg)
Monday, July 30, 2012
December 2012: Stockdiagnostics the Utility
Finding Stocks that Fall 30% to 99%
29 GFNN STOCKDIAGNOSTICS Portfolios created by Equities Research founder , Tom Renna
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Under Armour FY2015 Earnings Sends Stock Flying Up $15
Under Armour (NYSE: UA : $83.58 ) 2:06pm est.
Market Capitalization has increased by $3.3 Billion today to $19 Billion!
Shares of Under Armour are up 22% today on volume of 14 million.
The stock was down 15% year to date ($80.61 on December 31st close) as of yesterday's close @ $68.58.
As of 2pm this afternoon, the stock is up 3.6% year to date.
On September 17,2015 the stock hit an all time high of $105.89. and is off 21% over the past 4 months.
Operational Cash flow for the 4th quarter came in at $270 million up 35% compared to Operational Cash flow in the Fy2014 4th quarter of $199 million.
There is one Number that investors should be slightly concerned with though, 8k
Operational Cash Flow for FY2015 was NEGATIVE $44 Million!
vs
Operational Cash Flow FY2014 of Positive $219 Million.
Year over Year Operational Cash Flow declined by $263 Million
Operational Cash Flow
FY2010: $50 million
FY2011: $15 million
Fy2012: $200million
FY2013: $120 million
FY2014: $219 million
FY2015: NEGATIVE ($44 Million)
Market Capitalization has increased by $3.3 Billion today to $19 Billion!
Shares of Under Armour are up 22% today on volume of 14 million.
The stock was down 15% year to date ($80.61 on December 31st close) as of yesterday's close @ $68.58.
As of 2pm this afternoon, the stock is up 3.6% year to date.
On September 17,2015 the stock hit an all time high of $105.89. and is off 21% over the past 4 months.
Operational Cash flow for the 4th quarter came in at $270 million up 35% compared to Operational Cash flow in the Fy2014 4th quarter of $199 million.
There is one Number that investors should be slightly concerned with though, 8k
Operational Cash Flow for FY2015 was NEGATIVE $44 Million!
vs
Operational Cash Flow FY2014 of Positive $219 Million.
Year over Year Operational Cash Flow declined by $263 Million
Operational Cash Flow
FY2010: $50 million
FY2011: $15 million
Fy2012: $200million
FY2013: $120 million
FY2014: $219 million
FY2015: NEGATIVE ($44 Million)
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Under Armour Q1 Operational Cash Flow declines 100%
$UA Q1operational cash flow declined from Negative $74 mil to Negative $147 million. 100% decline. TTM OP CF is $50 mil. trading @ 200 X C/F
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) April 24, 2014
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
Under Armour, Disney, First Solar, Zillow, Papa Johns, Amgen & More
A look at Quarterly Cash Flow:
Disney (DIS),Under Armour (UA),Jazz Pharmaceutical(JAZZ), Zillow(Z),Amgen(AMGN),Papa John's (PZZA), DST Systems (DST), MercadoLibre (MELI), PDF Solutions (PDFS), First Solar (FSLR)
$Z Q2 2013 $6.2 million operational cash flow, a decline of $4.3 million vs Q2 2012 . 17% decline
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) August 7, 2013
$DIS Q3 2013 $3.4 Billion operational cash flow, an increase of $528 million vs Q3 2012 . 18% increase
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) August 7, 2013
$AMGN Q2 2013 $1.6 billion operational cash flow, a decline of $775 million vs Q2 2012 . 33% decline
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) August 7, 2013
$PZZA Q2 2013 $17.3 million operational cash flow, a decline of $3.7 million vs Q2 2012 . 18% decline
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) August 7, 2013
$JAZZ Q2 2013 $8.7 million operational cash flow, a decline of $68 million vs Q2 2012 . 89% decline
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) August 7, 2013
$DST Q2 2013 $201 million operational cash flow, an increase of $134 million vs Q2 2012 . 200% increase
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) August 7, 2013
$MELI Q2 2013 $29 million operational cash flow, a decline of $10 million vs Q2 2012 . 26% decline
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) August 7, 2013
$PDFS Q2 2013 $14 million operational cash flow, an increase of $7.1 million vs Q2 2012 . 103% higher
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) August 7, 2013
$FSLR Q2 2013 $222 million operational cash flow, a decline of $206 million vs Q2 2012 . 48% drop
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) August 7, 2013
Tuesday, July 16, 2013
Penny Stock Joe's Jeans Reports 4th Positive Operational Cash Flow Quarter
Joe's Jeans Inc. (NASDAQ: JOEZ) last night after the market close reported positive EPS for the 2nd quarter ending May 31,2013 of $0.02 per share but shares are trading down today off 18% on volume of 6 million shares.
Equities Research is initiating a Strong Buy on the stock @ $1.50 per share this afternoon after the company reported positive operational cash flow for the 4th consecutive quarter.
Operational Cash Flow for trailing twelve months ending May 31,2013 : $10.9 million.
@ $1.50 shares are trading almost 10 times TTM OPS of $0.16 per share.
Statisitics from MorningStar Industry Peers
Ralph Lauren (RL) 16 X OPS
PVH (PVH) 22 X OPS
VFC (VFC) 16 X OPS
Jones NY (JNY) 33 X OPS
Under Armour (UA) 32 X OPS
True Religion (TRLG) 13 X OPS
Joe's Jeans Inc. (NASDAQ: JOEZ). Stockdiagnostics upgraded JOEZ @ $0.62 on October 14,2011 after the company reported FY2011 3rd quarter financials for the period ending August 31,2011. In 22 months since the upgrade shares are up 150%.
<click to JOEZ Stockdiagnostics OP chart<
Equities Research is initiating a Strong Buy on the stock @ $1.50 per share this afternoon after the company reported positive operational cash flow for the 4th consecutive quarter.
Operational Cash Flow for trailing twelve months ending May 31,2013 : $10.9 million.
@ $1.50 shares are trading almost 10 times TTM OPS of $0.16 per share.
Statisitics from MorningStar Industry Peers
Ralph Lauren (RL) 16 X OPS
PVH (PVH) 22 X OPS
VFC (VFC) 16 X OPS
Jones NY (JNY) 33 X OPS
Under Armour (UA) 32 X OPS
True Religion (TRLG) 13 X OPS
Joe's Jeans Inc. (NASDAQ: JOEZ). Stockdiagnostics upgraded JOEZ @ $0.62 on October 14,2011 after the company reported FY2011 3rd quarter financials for the period ending August 31,2011. In 22 months since the upgrade shares are up 150%.
<click to JOEZ Stockdiagnostics OP chart<
$JOEZ Q2 operational cash flow truns positive $1.272,000 vs. Negative Operational cash flow ($2,079,000)Q2 2012. $3.2 million improvement
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) July 16, 2013
$JOEZ Strong Buy $1.50. $JOEZ upgraded to a 1 ranking at http://t.co/acszG4w2BT . 4th consecutive positive operational cash flow quarter
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) July 16, 2013
$JOEZ operational cash flow trailing twelve months ending May 31,2013 $10,914,000.00. Operational Cash flow of $0.16 per share. 10X OPS
— tom renna (@GFNNstock) July 16, 2013
Monday, March 11, 2013
Friday, February 1, 2013
October 2007 Peak Stock Pick (Acquired by Home Depot)
With the Markets Reaching 5 year highs I circled back today to find out what I said in October 2007.
In October 2007 I was able to find an undervalued stock at the market highs that I picked in my weekly newsletter. US HOMES Systems would get acquired in less than 4 years by Home Depot for an 80% return while the S&P 500 index declined 7.8% over the same period.
October 23,2007 Pick :U.S.Home Systems $6.93
October 12,2012 USHS Acquired by Home Depot for $12.50 cash
Equities Research Archives USHS
click to Equities Research favorite stock YAHOO (NASDAQ:YHOO)
Don't know what to do with Market at a 5 year high?
In October 2007 I was able to find an undervalued stock at the market highs that I picked in my weekly newsletter. US HOMES Systems would get acquired in less than 4 years by Home Depot for an 80% return while the S&P 500 index declined 7.8% over the same period.
October 23,2007 Pick :U.S.Home Systems $6.93
October 12,2012 USHS Acquired by Home Depot for $12.50 cash
Equities Research Archives USHS
click to Equities Research favorite stock YAHOO (NASDAQ:YHOO)
top 2012 Warnings:
Chipotle Mexican Grill decline 47%
Included in link below is a link to CNBC TV video of +Herb Greenberg
April 20,2012 Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG ) Warning $430
April 20,2012 Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG ) Warning $430
October 22,2012 low $236
click here to Read an article by Herb Greenberg discussing the importance of Cash Flow with legendary investor Bob Olstein
click here to Read an article by Herb Greenberg discussing the importance of Cash Flow with legendary investor Bob Olstein
Under Armour decline 14%
July 11,2012 low $45.27
APPLE 24% decline 3 months
January 25,2013 low $440
Don't know what to do with Market at a 5 year high?
My February 2012 Newsletter is
ready, subscribe now!
Take my
fundamental work and use your technical skills to build positions for the long
term.
Friday, August 24, 2012
Weakening Cash Flow at DICK'S & TITAN
Equities Research issued two new Warnings this week.
Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc (NYSE: DKS) filed their 2nd Quarter financials this morning with the Securities & Exchange Commision and reported an Operational Cash Flow decline of 46% for the first 6 months of FY2012 vs. same period FY2011.
Equities Research also believes that this weakness could negatively effect Under Armour (NYSE: UA).
Equities Research continues to recommend Under Armour as a STRONG SELL since June 11,2012.
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN).
Equities Research issued a Strong Sell on the stock earlier this week. TITN has generated negative $300 million in operational cash for it's trailing 14 quarters and trades at a $500 million market capitalization.
Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc (NYSE: DKS) filed their 2nd Quarter financials this morning with the Securities & Exchange Commision and reported an Operational Cash Flow decline of 46% for the first 6 months of FY2012 vs. same period FY2011.
Equities Research also believes that this weakness could negatively effect Under Armour (NYSE: UA).
Equities Research continues to recommend Under Armour as a STRONG SELL since June 11,2012.
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN).
Equities Research issued a Strong Sell on the stock earlier this week. TITN has generated negative $300 million in operational cash for it's trailing 14 quarters and trades at a $500 million market capitalization.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Follow Insiders At Under Armour and SELL
originally published at Equities Research
August 14,2012
Under Armour (NYSE: UA) traded less than 1 million shares for the second consecutive day and closed yesterday @ $56.42. Since the company reported 2nd quarter financials on July 24th the stock is 16.62% higher. Increasing its market capitalization by nearly $900 million to $5.89 Billion. (Under Armour traded at an all time high on August 7th @ $58.48.)
Below is a table from Yahoo finance showing daily volume with stock prices since company reported 2nd quarter financials on July 24th.
Use the below headlines from Dow Jones, Edgar Online, Flyonthewall and Knobias to see Insider Activity.
-----Tom Renna , Equities Research LLC. , tom@equitiesresearch.com ,908-477-4796
August 14,2012
Under Armour (NYSE: UA) traded less than 1 million shares for the second consecutive day and closed yesterday @ $56.42. Since the company reported 2nd quarter financials on July 24th the stock is 16.62% higher. Increasing its market capitalization by nearly $900 million to $5.89 Billion. (Under Armour traded at an all time high on August 7th @ $58.48.)
Under Armour is on my radar as a prime Short
Read : "Under Armour Special Effects" to learn more.
- The company reported an increase in sales of $78 million while only adding a mere $427,000 in net income
- For 6 months 2012 the company increased sales by $149 million and only increased comprehensive net income by less than $900,000.
- The company has generated NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW for its trailing twelve months
- Operational Cash Flow for the prior 3 years (2009,2010,2011) has declined from $119 million to $50 million to $15million,respectively.
- Accounts Payable increased by $50 million vs. 1st Quarter
- Accrued Expenses increased by $19 million vs. 1st Quarter
- Total Liabilities (all current) increased by $69 million vs. the 1st Quarter
- Stockholders Equity increased by only $15 million vs. the 1st Quarter
Read : "Under Armour Special Effects" to learn more.
- The dilemma that Under Armour faces is that it only has $143 million in cash. That is not enough to pay off its Accounts Payable of $146 million and its current portion due of $42 million of its long term debt that was moved to its Current Liabilities section of its Balance Sheet in its first quarter ended March 31, 2012.
Below is a table from Yahoo finance showing daily volume with stock prices since company reported 2nd quarter financials on July 24th.
| Prices |
|---|
|
Use the below headlines from Dow Jones, Edgar Online, Flyonthewall and Knobias to see Insider Activity.
-----Tom Renna , Equities Research LLC. , tom@equitiesresearch.com ,908-477-4796
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