Showing posts with label Caterpillar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Caterpillar. Show all posts

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Short Pick: Beware Of Cashless Earnings.............again


Summary
Titan Machinery sales and profits are down dramatically from 2013.
Margins are too small for A 3rd Party Retailer to compete with Manufacturers like Caterpillar and Deere.
Lowered International Revenue Assumptions from up 10 to 15% to merely up 2 to 5%.
Beware of Cashless Earnings! Negative Operating cash for 6 months  FY2021 Negative -($14 million).
Titan Machinery entire growth model through the years has simply been a roll up of mom and pops. The Consolidation story here has ended as the company has closed locations over the last 5 years.  Titan is simply a cyclical stock that should only deserve maybe a PE of 6 to 10 and not trade as a teenager any longer above $13 with a PE in a range of nearly 30X.
Another Year with Insiders selling ahead of this morning's miss.
Well the good news is that CNHI has a dealership like Titan that they can ship machinery to and boost CNHI's sales. Titan doesn't mind as their assets go up on the balance sheet and most of the inventory is carried at ZERO Interest on the FloorPlan Debt. Win Win. (or is it, wink, wink)
The History of this Wall Street game can be found here https://newsgrade.blogspot.com/2018/06/titan-machinery-co-founder-is-companys.html

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Hedgeye Shines Light on Farm Machinery & Equipment MFG


One of the top research firms on Wall Street is Hedgeye.
Yesterday on twitter a post by Jay Van Sciver included charts referencing Farm Machinery Equipment Manufacturers, John Deere Equipment Sales Price Realizations and Dealer Inventories.



HEDGEYE China Warning in 2017




Equities Research is Bearish the third party CNHI retailer Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN).
Titan has seen annual sales fall from $2.2 Billion to $1.2 Billion in 4 years and the company has lost over $130 million (aggregate) over that period. Titan has seen 6 directors resign including its co-founder who suddenly resigned as president after suspicious trading was done in the stock prior to a new release. 
Titan trades at over $15 a share with a $350 million market capitalization and the company is at RISK of defaulting on the Wells Fargo Indenture due May 1, 2019.
To Read the Titan Machinery Red Flags see links below. 

Titan Machinery Files 10Q Sending Stock to New YTD Low


Friday, June 8, 2018

Titan Machinery Files 10Q Sending Stock to New YTD Low





Securities and Exchange Commission Division of Corporate Finance has commented on Titan Machinery's past Filings, IS it time for them to return? 
Is it Time for FINRA and SEC to start looking at the unusual trading ahead of news in the stock of Titan?
    Titan Machinery laid off 14% of their American workers and closed 15 locations in last year to cut costs. Why did they pay one landlord in April 2018 $3 million to terminate a lease? Would it not have been in the best interest of the shareholders to keep the location? Who was the landlord of that location? was it a related party transaction? who was responsible for signing that lease and when was it signed and what was the term of that lease?
Why didn't they sell the 15 locations? Were all 15 locations worthless? If one location cost $3 million to terminate a lease does that mean all 100 locations are worthless? The company has purchased over 50 acquisitions over last two decades and are closing the stores instead of selling the stores. The company only has $50 million in cash and $395 million in current liabilities as of April 30,2018. But with the Wells Fargo Indenture due May 1,2019, the $68 million note is now moved from long term debt and needs to be added to the current liability of $395 million.


          




 In the Annual Report (10K) there is no mention that the company is in risk of going bankrupt but instead says if they violate covenants that they "would work with lenders" 


 
In 2017 the CEO said company was closing 15 locations to cut cost and laid off a significant amount of employees. This is what Wall Street wanted to hear and the stock SkyRocketed. The CEO sold over $2 million worth of stock with some sales above $21. While the COO has sold 26% of his position at $24 a share. Makes one wonder if the real reason for the store closings was for the stock to go up so they could ring their personal cash registers. The CFO was granted 149% performance Bonus for FY2018 year end.
Also during FY2018 the co-founder of the company who abruptly resigned as the President received the balance of $700,000 of his severance package. (There was no mention whether he and his spouse will still have use of aircraft company has an ownership.)
   Titan Machinery disclosed in their 10Q yesterday for the first time that Equipment revenue is made up of NonCash Consideration of equipment trade ins. How did the NonCash Consideration values contribute to the improved profit margins on the equipment sales figure? Why didn't Deloitte want this disclosed in the past? Was all the Inventory recently liquidated at auctions for a fraction on the dollar originally booked as NonCash Consideration when it was originally accepted in trade ins? what values were given on the trade-ins and how over priced were those assets inflated?  How did the NonCash Considerations effect the BONUSES and Stock Grants that were received by the Officers of the company as reward for reaching Sales milestones over the years. Note: In most recent 10K, The officers received 149% Bonuses.
      TItan Machinery Current Liabilities increased from $320 to $390 million. The Wells Fargo Indenture due May 1,2019 is approximately $70 million and the company only has $50 million cash. Titan generated negative operational cash flow of Negative $27 million in Q1. a decrease of $68 million vs Fy2018 Q1 . with negative cash flow the co may need to Raise Capital via a Debt Underwriting or an equity raise. The interest from more debt will eat any chance of a profit and additional shares thru an issuance of more stock will dilute shareholders.
In its most recent 10Q Titan Machinery disclosed for the first time that they use non cash consideration to account for equipment revenue.
This practice has never been disclosed before.
The company prior to Q filing a week earlier made a press release touting their dramatically improved equipment profit margins.
I question whether the co used non cash consideration to account for equipment revenue in the past? If so, I question the accuracy of prior filings.  The company reported nearly $2 billion in equipment revenue in the past and now equipment rev is less than $1 billion annually.
In the last 18 months the company has had to LIQUIDATE USED EQUIPMENT inventory at a fraction on the dollar to generate enough cash to pay debt and pay off the severance agreement  to their co founder who abruptly resigned as president after a DEF14 A was filed.
If the Used Equipment in the past was accounted for as non cash consideration, is it possible that those trade in values were seriously inflated to record higher revenue at the time, only to have those trade ins eventually sold for discounts at auctions?
there are plenty of other questionable disclosures that i have found and I have included them in my report (there are many links within the report) https://newsgrade.blogspot.com/2018/06/titan-machinery-files-10q-sending-stock.html









Also note, the company admitted that they inflated assets and under reported losses by 50% in a 10Q, but never restated the 10Q.
There are many related party transactions in the disclosure through out the years. Specifically $100 million worth of leases with an outside entity that management has (had) an equity stake in.  
In the company's most recent DEF14A there is a new STOCK OWNERSHIP guideline for Officers and directors stating that the officers and directors NEED to increase their holdings in the stock based on the Price of the common stock as per its dollar value. 
Also in the most recent DEF 14 the Officers received bonuses based on the company's sales benchmarks. Is there a conflict with the non cash considerations values used to figure revenue numbers?
Deloitte Audited Related Fees increased from $25k to $61k  over last last FY. Meanwhile Company sales declined dramatically. 
A co founder of the company who sits on the board is also the underwriter of the public company and receives fees. Adam Smith Investments is an outside entity controlled by this Director and Adam Smith files with SEC as a Promotor.
Company closed 15 locations in last year to cut cost. In latest 10Q they disclosed that in April 2018 they paid $3 million to terminate one lease.  I want to know who owned that location? when was lease signed? what was the term? And what it not have been in the Best interest of shareholders to keep location open?  How did the company cut costs by closing the location when they paid $3 million to terminate the lease?
The company discloses their Used and New Equipment Inventories but don't disclose the breakdown of their USED and New Equipment revenues in their 10Q. They also claim to be in the equipment rental business but according to 10Q only rental revenue came in the USA construction business and almost nil for international and agriculture divisions.  Also note the revenue for the rental segment revenue line over each quarter and then notice how in most recent 10Q the rental profit and margins declined dramatically while sales barely slipped. More importantly the gross profit of the rental business all of a sudden made up significantly less of the gross profit of the four divisions.
International revenue are not broken down by construction and agriculture for some reason. never ever.
Company also has a history of Directors leaving. Six of Eight Directors left within a 2 year period.
Also a local minnesota penny stock brokerage firm called FELTL upgraded the stock a couple years ago stating that Titan would earn over $20 Million in Net Income and gave the stock a $40 plus price target. The company has not earned a profit in over 4 years and have lost over $130 million (aggregate) in that time frame.

There are so many notes I have that you can find in my link.







FY2019 Q1 10Q Highlights:




















Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN $17.34) reported FY2019 Q1 financials last week in a press release on Thursday May 31st pre-market followed by a brief Conference Call.  Titan stock traded volume over 900,000 shares and closed Thursday @ $18.09 down $2.93 (-14%) from Wednesday's close of $21.02.
Yesterday morning Titan Machinery filed FY2019 10Q with the Securities & Exchange Commission and shares hit a New intra day Year To Date low of $17.00 before closing the day @ $17.34, down $0.68  (-3.77%)  for the day.
Since Reaching a 52 week intra-day high on March 29th @ $25.09 the shares are now down $7.75 declining 31% in ten weeks. The S&P 500 Index has gained 5% over the same time frame.

Titan Machinery is a retailer of Agriculture and Construction Equipment based in Midwest USA with International locations in Europe. According to the company's disclosure the company leases their locations. At the current stock price the market capitalization is approximately $400 million.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PRESS RELEASE LAST WEEK prior to today's 10Q (CLICK HERE)

Cliff Notes









Thursday, May 10, 2018

Time to Short the Most OverPriced Stock in the Market

Titan Machinery has the fundamentals of a PennyStock but trades above $19 a share on NASDAQ.
Insiders Continue to Sell and Officers are getting paid bonuses while the company lays off hundreds of employees in the United States and close nearly 20% of their stores in America.
Company has spent the last years LIQUIDATING INVENTORY at AUCTIONS to generate enough cash to pay themselves and to afford to reward their co-founder and former president a handsome Severance Package after he abruptly resigned.
The Insiders have an equity interest in several outside entities that are being paid via lease agreements with properties that they own.
A CNBC Personality with a huge following who is from the state of Minnesota coincidently appears on twitter with bullish options calls touts on this thinly traded micro-stock that will send stock into a spike higher.
TheStreet website has another guru who also appears to have a crystal ball when predicting this stock's bullish moves is also helpful.
SEC Division of Corporate Finance has made some appearances in TITAN's disclosure filing requesting more transparency from time to time but the SEC and NASDAQ stock trading investigators never seem to take a look at the trading.














SEEKING ALPHA Writer Doesn't See Anything Criminal at Titan Machinery



Friday, November 10, 2017

Equities Research Long Stock Picks Up 84% in 10 Weeks!

November StockPicks are out. If you never subscribed, you should order picks today. Longs/Short Picks. email thomasrenna@gmail.com now!
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Equities Research Long Pick OverStock Up $30 in 10 weeks
Long Picks from Aug 25th

Short Picks From August 25th 

Equities  Research Back to School Picks
August 25, 2017


*Retail Investors $500
*(retail investors only receive Company Name, Ticker and Price Target)


Long Pick:   
Overstock (NASDAQ: OSTK) $19.50  
price target: $100.00+


Overstock the ICO “pure play”








Nathan's Famous (NASDAQ: NATH) $56.00
price target; $70.00




LONG PICK
MICROSOFT (MSFT) $73.00
Price Target L/T $125.00


Short Pick:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) $16.00
price target: $7.50




SHORT PICK
Caterpillar (NASDAQ: CAT) $115.00
price target: $86.00




SHORT PICK
CONN's (NASDAQ: CONN) $19.75
price target : $9.25 









Archives
In 28 years I have made many outstanding picks, here are some of top short ideas

December 2013: Short Conn $78
July 2016 : Short Noodles $10
February 2013: Short Stratasys $86
April 2015 : Short A. Schulman $48
February 2013 : Short Titan Machinery $28
April 2012 : 
Short Chipotle $440 on mentioned in CNBC clip





October 2014 
Long Recommendations (from Stone Interview)
Tom Renna: I’m bullish on social media and believe it will be the hottest sector for several years. The Global X Social Media ETF (SOCL), which consists of a basket of social media stocks such as Facebook, LinkedIn, Yelp, Zillow, Groupon, Pandora, Shutterfly and top sites like Google and Yahoo, is definitely a place to invest your money. It’s just under $20 a share and every investor should own it because it will be worth $100 a share in five years.