Showing posts with label Bond. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bond. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Titan Needs Q3 Net Income to Increase 180% To Stay Compliant With Terms of Wells Fargo Bond

Pressure is on Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN $12.31) to report a stellar 3rd quarter financial report for the period ending October 31,2015.

Titan Machinery was on the brink of going out of business in April 2012 when Wells Fargo loaned the company $150 million  (3.75% May 1,2019 maturity) save the day.

Indenture

  • The Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of April 24, 2012 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as trustee.

    The Notes are general unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the Company, and interest will be payable semiannually at a rate of 3.75% per annum. The Notes mature on May 1, 2019, unless earlier converted, redeemed or purchased by the Company in accordance with their terms. The Notes will be convertible at the option of the holders of the Notes under certain conditions described below. Upon conversion, the Company will pay cash up to the aggregate principal amount of converted notes and pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, shares of Company common stock or a combination thereof, at the Company’s election, for any conversion obligation in excess thereof, subject to certain limitations described below.  The initial conversion rate for the Notes is 23.1626 shares of Company common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes, and is subject to certain adjustments as set forth in the Indenture.


On March 9,2015 shares of TITN were halted when the company pronounced  FY2015 numbers and Titan Chairman David Meyer announced earlier this year that the company was non-compliant with the terms of a Wells Fargo covenant on January 31,2015. Titan's corporate bond was at a low of $66.50 with a 14.88% yield.

Suspicious Trading on March 9,2015 during the day. The overall market was up that day and Titan shares traded down 6%. After the close is when the Company pronounced the FY2015 year end warning and announced store closings. I am thinking inside information was leaked to someone who capitalized on the privileged news.

According to the footnotes in the 10K filed on April 15,2015, on April 10,2015 Wells Fargo made a 6th Amendment (4th in 12 months) amending the Bond covenants and revised the terms of the January 31,2015 violation so that Titan would be compliant. Bonds gained 21% by May 17,2015 closing at $80.

Terms of the 6th Amendment states Titan Machinery needs to earn $1 million in net income for the 9 months of FY2016 ending October 31,2015. For the first six months of FY2016 ending July 31,2015, Titan has already reported a loss of -($5.7 million).
TITAN Q3 report is due out anytime within the next three weeks and the company will have to earn a minimum of $6.7 million net income just for the 3rd Quarter alone or else they will be NON-Compliant with the net income covenant terms of the Bond!

A year ago the company reported 3rd quarter net income of $2.4 million. Titan will need to report a net income increase for their most recent Q3, 180% higher than a year ago Q3.

This morning John Deere announce their most recent quarter and NET INCOME declined 46%.

Equities Research Remains Bearish Titan Machinery.

Titan has a $265 million market capitalization @ $12.50.

In an SEC filing On May 7, 2015 the founder of Titan Machinery was not on the ballot for re-election to the board of directors for the June shareholder meeting. No formal announcement or 8K filing was filed announcing his plans to step down from the board. I found out simply by seeing his name was not on the ballot.

On May 11,2015 the founder announced he was resigning as president. 

3 of 8 Titan directors have resigned since May.

 October 28,2015 8K Credit Agreement Amendment 

Exhibit 10.1 of 8k  the term "Bankruptcy" appears 15 times


Wednesday, May 27, 2015

What is TITAN Machinery really?

What is TITAN really?

A January 2008 IPO raising approx $60 million

January 2011 2.4 Million Shares @ $28.75 

A Spring 2011 Underwriting approx $60 million.

November 20011 500,000 @ $21.68 

A Spring 2012 $150 million Indenture.


Management (& Family) Outside Entities make all the money:
  • on leasing property to TITN.
  • sales commissions
  • underwriting fees
  • mgmt sold stock annually
  • having expenses, maintenance and fees on their outside entities properties paid by TITAN.
  • Brother-in-law generating millions of dollars worth of construction fees (questionable if its even needed)


Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Yahoo Message Board Won't Allow This Post

Every so often I read the Yahoo Finance message board on different stocks that I am following.
A handful of times over the years I have even posted my own comment under certain tickers.

A month ago I posted a comment in the message board for Titan Machinery regarding their bond disclosure and weak fundamentals and after 1 day the post was removed by the administrator.

Yesterday I added another comment to the Yahoo message under the Titan ticker and it was removed by last night. I didn't save the previous comment that I made a month ago, but I did save the comment that I posted yesterday.

April 20,2015 MY post that was removed on the yahoo message board under ticker TITN
The Definitive 14A proxy statement will be filed any day now. There you will find more disclosure than what is in the annual report.
Also Agricredit and Wells Fargo both reduced their available Floorplan lines of credit to TITN by a total of $100 million.  SO they will have less borrowing power in future.
With so much less inventory it will be harder for them to produce sales. They are already simply a reseller and are finding it nearly impossible to compete with the manufacturers CAT , DE and CNHI.
Also, don't lose track that this is just an all around horrible business.
ON $1.9 billion in sales the income from operations was $723,000.
 0.00038% operation income/total revenue) how horrible can you get?

Prior years they only paid interest on approx 50% of inventory now they pay interest on nearly 75%

the list goes on and on....the tricks wells fargo plays with the covenant amendments is out of hand. 6 amendments. 4 in last 12 months. Bondholders who sold those bonds under $70 must be fuming. Had those bondholders known that WFC was going to amend covenants after company was non-compliant they may not have sold so low.

last time i wrote a message like this it was flagged and deleted. I'll save this one and post it somewhere else just in case the yahoo police flag it again.

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Two Years Ago Today, A Warning That Has Been Cut In Half

NAME
TICKER
4/9/2015
4/9/2013
Perform
2/22/2013
Perform
Titan Machinery
TITN
$13.58
$26.12
-48%
$28.67
-53%
Standard & Poors 500 index
GSPC
$2,091
$1,568
33%
$1,502
39%



On April 9,2013, the day before Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) reported FY2013 annual financials, Equities Research Warned the public that the stock @ $26.12 was overpriced based on fundamental research.



On February 22,2013 Equities Research Newsletter Subscribers were given the Warning the Febrausry Newsletter @ $28.67

Today @ $13.58 I continue to Warn on Titan Machinery as the company prepares to release FY2015 Annual financials next Wednesday April 15th before the market opens.
 










March 9,2015 Warning preliminary FY2015 annual financials released






TITAN ANNOUNCED THEY EXPECT YEAR END LOSS OF $32 MILLION AND WARNS COMPANY IS IN NON COMPLIANCE WITH COVENANT OF WELLS FARGO NOTE, BUT CHAIRMAN SETTLES INVESTORS BY SAYING HE ANTICIPATES A 6TH AMENDMENT From the lender. 

The bond (2019) fell to an all time low that week to $66.50 yield 14.88% , but after the Chairman stating he anticipates the lender to amend the covenants, which would be for a 6th time and 4th tim in 1 year, BOND IS NOW TRADING UP 12% since the low less than a month ago.

What's very dangerous for stockholders and bondholders is THE RISK of default if Wells Fargo Does NOT Amend Covenant on the terms of the $150 million convertible Note for a 6th Time.
 The public disclosure that is due out in the 10K regarding how Wells Fargo will handle the company which is  expecting to be in noncompliance with the current minimum income before income tax covenant as of the end of its January 31, 2015 fiscal year.
  •  Chairman Meyer stated last month in a press release that "The Company anticipates amending this covenant associated with this credit facility effective as of the end of its January 31, 2015 fiscal year and for future periods, and therefore does not anticipate being in violation of any covenants as of January 31, 2015."

INVESTORS LONG THE STOCK AND BONDS NEED TO HOPE THAT WELLS FARGO MAKES A 6th Amendment like Chairman Meyer Anticipates.

Don't Trust Titan Machinery's Guidance


Friday, March 13, 2015

TITAN BONDS MAKES NEW ALL TIME LOW


Titan Bond (2019) Makes NEW ALL TIME LOW this morning  @ $66.50 yield 14.88% 

Recent 8K : Board Member to Resign 

  TITAN MACHINERY (NASDAQ: TITN) warned earlier this week that the company expects to be in non compliance of the covenants in the $150 million convertible note with Wells Fargo. The company says the terms of the note require the Company to earn a minimum net income for the FY2015 period that ended as of January 31,2015.
On Monday the company stated that they expect to lose nearly $32 million for FY2015 when the audited financials get reported on April 15,2015.  On July 2,2013 or July 8,2013 (read why date is important here) Deloitte & Touche LLP replaced Eide Bailly LLP, the company's long standing auditor  since the company's Initial Public Offering. 


A Review of Securities & Exchange Commission's Comments regarding Titan Machinery Disclosure

Technically " on way to Head and Shoulders target below", greg harmon








Friday, September 12, 2014

TITAN MACHINERY Lowers FY2015 EPS Guidance: $0.00-$0.30

Titan Machinery reported a loss for their third consecutive quarter on Tuesday morning that sent shares down to a new 4 year low @ $11.85, a price that it had previously traded at in March 2010.
    
Aside from lowering their net income guidance dramatically, the company also lowered their cash flow and sales outlook as well.


chart source: (bigcharts.com) click chart to enlarge.


The stock has closed under $14 per share for 21 consecutive days and saw a brief spike yesterday after the CEO bought 90,000 shares @ 13.03. The trade in my opinion is insignificant in light of the most recent prior trade the CEO did when he  appeared on Jim Cramer's MAD MONEY  and touted TITAN MACHINERY's future. 30 days later DAVID MEYER SOLD 300,000 shares @ $27.80 and received proceeds of $8,340.00.00 and CEO Peter Christianson sold 200,000 shares $27.80 for proceeds of $5.56 million. (more on Hyping of Shares (Unrealistic Guidance) that Directors used to take advantage of Stock Sales can be found here)

 
In their FY2015 2nd quarter 10Q filed on Tuesday afternoon with the Securities and Exchange Commission the company stated that they realized that they had inflated their assets and understated their losses in their 1st quarter 10Q filed back in June. Although they previously reported an Earnings Per LOSS of ($0.20) for Q1, it came to their attention that had actually loss ($0.31) for the quarter. The company determined that the error on the loss of over 50% was immaterial and that they won't deem it necessary to Refile their FY2015 Q1 10Q. I am wondering if the SEC will think otherwise?
  •  "The incorrect classification of the VAT asset as a non-monetary asset coupled with the significant devaluation of the UAH resulted in an overstatement of the Company’s assets (Prepaid expenses and other) as of April 30, 2014 and an understatement of the Company’s loss (Interest income and other income (expense)) for the three months ended April 30, 2014. This correction increased the Company’s Net Loss Attributable to Titan Machinery Inc. by $2.3 million (from the previously reported $4.2 million to $6.5 million) and increased the diluted loss per share by $0.11 (from the previously reported $0.20 loss per share to a $0.31 loss per share). This correction is reflected in the accompanying unaudited Consolidated Statements of Operations for the six-month period ended July 31, 2014.

    Based on an evaluation of all relevant factors, the Company concluded that this correction was immaterial to the Company’s results for the three months ended April 30, 2014; therefore, the Company determined that an amendment of its previously filed Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended April 30, 2014 was not necessary, and the correction will be reflected in future 10-K and 10-Q filings."




Wall Street Money Mangers and Brokerages Are Looking the Other Way

The trailing twelve months ending July 31,2014 Titan has total net income of $690,000 and the stock @$13 a share values the company at $275 million. (or a PE of 398 on ttm basis)

With FY 2015 EPS Guidance now at $0.00 to $0.30 per share , if use the mid range of $0.15 eps, the shares are currently trading at PE of nearly 100!

Why is there such a disconnect with the fundamentals of this underlying business and the price of its stock market valuation? I am seriously thinking that these shares may be being manipulated. One director on the board who is also a founder of the company is the general partner of an underwriting firm for the company and may know more about why shares trade at such a huge premium. 

Management of Titan can blame price of corn, the weak construction & agricultural economy,  poor farming, the unrest with their footprint in the UKRAINE, but I blame The company's poor financial condition on GREED AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS



Friday, September 5, 2014

TITAN MACHINERY Down 40% since April 14th 52 Week High


The above chart demonstrates how Equities Research llc  SEEKS ALPHA!
 (chart source: www.bigcharts.com)



After Titan Machinery reported disappointing  Fiscal Year 2014 annual financials on April 10,2014, shares went on a three day tear and traded up from $16 to $20.40.
In less than 5 months since hitting the 52 week high of $20.40 on April 14,2014, shares are now down 40%, closing yesterday @ $12.44. The S&P500 index is up 9% over the same period. (1830 to 1997).

Management of Titan can blame price of corn, the weak construction & agricultural economy,  poor farming, the unrest with their footprint in the UKRAINE, but I blame The company's poor financial condition on GREED AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS


Equities Research remains bearish Titan heading into the company's  2nd  quarter earnings release scheduled to be reported pre-market next Tuesday.

  • YEAR over Year Earnings are down (-79%) . 
  • Other Q1 2015 CC Highlights:
  • Agriculture Adjusted Pre-Tax Income Declined 50% in FY2015 Q1 vs FY2014Q
  •  
  •  "Used Equipment Prices Under Pressure due to Higher Industry Levels of Used Equipment"
  •  Q1 equipment margins declines. Gross profit margin was 16.3% in the Q1 fiscal 2015, compared to 16.7% in the first quarterQ1 last yr
  • inventory level was $1.12 bil as of April 30, 2014, compared to $1.08 billion as of January 31, 2014.Floorplan interest exp $4.6 mil
  •   FY15 Q1 Operational Cash FLow : (Negative $54 mil) vs (Neg $6 mil) in FY14 Q1. operational cash flow per share NEG ($2.44) per share


my former twitter handle was @GFNNSTOCK
 








Tuesday, August 26, 2014

DANGER: Titan Machinery Bond Hits ALL TIME LOW....****Alert

*****ALERT.....*****ALERT....the end of Titan Machinery is rapidly approaching.

Titan Machinery Convertible Indenture (2019) hit a NEW all time low yesterday @ $79.00 yield 9.39%

Titan Machinery will be reporting FY2015 2nd quarter financials for the period ending July 31,2014 withing the next month.


#bearish

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75%  Maturity:2019.
Closed Yesterday:  $79.00 w 9.39% yield.



Date of Offering : April 18,2012 
Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible




Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.65 on volume of 120,358 shares. The stock has closed below $14 for the ninth consecutive session.

Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .


  •  FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
  •  April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location

TITN 2 year chart vs. S&P500 (source: BigCharts )


Thursday, August 21, 2014

Titan Machinery Bond (2019) Makes Third New YTD Low In 2 Weeks

 #bearish

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75%  Maturity:2019.
Closed Yesterday:  $81.13 w 8.73% yield.


Date of Offering : April 18,2012 
Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible




Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.50 on volume of 91,868 shares. The stock has closed below $14 for the sixth consecutive session.

Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .


  •  FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
  •  April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location.

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Titan Machinery Bond Hits New YTD Low

Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.34 on volume of 140,000 shares. The last time the stock traded this low was on July 22,2010 when it closed @ $13.54.
Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .

  •  FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
  •  April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location.

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75%  Maturity:2019.
Closed Week:  $83.19 w 8.11% yield.

Date of Offering : April 18,2012 
Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible

** Recent Amendments To $150 million indenture

Amendment #3

In the Footnote Exhibit 10.53, terms of Titan Machinery's $150 million convertible note with Wells Fargo is disclosed with Amendments that were made on April 3,2014.





1.1.6    Effective as of the Third Amendment Effective Date, Section 6.12(a) of the Credit Agreement is hereby deleted in its entirety and the following is substituted therefor:
(a)    Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.25 : 1.00, and (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.00 : 1.00.
1.1.7    Section 6.12(b) of the Credit Agreement is hereby deleted in its entirety and the following is substituted therefor:

(b)    Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, as at the end of each Fiscal Period, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.25 : 1.00.

1.1.8    The following is hereby inserted in the Credit Agreement as Section 6.12(c):

(c)    Consolidated Net Income. Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, for the period consisting of the four consecutive Fiscal Periods ending on such date, a Consolidated Net Income of not less than $5,000,000.00, and (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, for the period consisting of the four consecutive Fiscal Periods ending on such date, a Consolidated Net Income of not less than $10,000,000.00. For purposes of this Section 6.12(c) only, (a) for all Fiscal Periods through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, the One-Time Impairment Charge (net of the tax benefit to the extent already included in the determination of Consolidated Net Income) shall be excluded from the calculation of Consolidated Net Income, and (b) for all Fiscal Periods through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014 for that portion of the One-Time Restructuring Charge incurred in the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014, and through the Fiscal Period January 31, 2015 for that portion of the One-Time Restructuring Charge incurred in the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014, the One-Time Restructuring Charge (net of the tax benefit to the extent already included in the determination of Consolidated Net Income) shall be excluded from the calculation of Consolidated Net Income.


Amendment #2





1.1.5       Effective as of October 31, 2013, Sections 6.12(a) and (b) of the Credit Agreement are hereby deleted in their entirety and the following are substituted therefor:

(a)           Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio.  Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2013, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.75 : 1.00, (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.50 : 1.00, (c) as at the end of the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.25 : 1.00, and (d) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2015, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.00 : 1.00.

(b)           Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio.  Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2013 through the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.15 : 1.00, (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.20 : 1.00, and (c) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.25 : 1.00.


Amendment #1
  • SECTION 6.12                            FINANCIAL COVENANTS.

    (a)           Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio.  Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2012 through the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.00 : 1.00, and (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 2.50 : 1.00.

    (b)           Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio.  Borrower shall maintain, as at the end of each Fiscal Period ending after the Closing Date, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.25 : 1.00 for the then trailing twelve month period.

    ******definitions from original indenture:


    Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio means, as of the last day of a fiscal quarter, for the period consisting of the four consecutive Fiscal Periods ending on such date, subject to Section 1.02(h), the ratio of:  (a) the sum for such period of (without duplication):  (i) Consolidated EBITDAR; minus (ii) all payments in cash for taxes related to income made by Borrower and its Subsidiaries; minus (iii) Capital Expenditures actually made in cash by Borrower and its Subsidiaries (net of any insurance proceeds, condemnation awards or proceeds relating to any financing with respect to such expenditures); minus (iv) Restricted Payments paid in cash by Borrower; to (b) of:  (i) Consolidated Interest Expense; plus (ii) Consolidated Rent Expense; plus (iii) without duplication, all current maturities of long-term Debt (including with respect to Debt that is a capital lease).

    Consolidated Interest Expense means, for any period, for Borrower and its Subsidiaries on a consolidated basis, the sum of (without duplication):  (a) all interest, premium payments, debt discount, fees, charges and related expenses in connection with borrowed money (including capitalized interest) or in connection with the deferred purchase price of assets during such period; plus (b) all payments made under interest rate Swap Contracts during such period to the extent not included in clause (a) of this definition; minus (c) all payments received under interest rate Swap Contracts during such period; plus (d) the portion of rent expense with respect to such period under capital leases that is treated as interest in accordance with GAAP.

    Consolidated Leverage Ratio means, as of any date of determination, the ratio of:  (a)  Consolidated Total Liabilities; to (b) Consolidated Tangible Net Worth.

    Consolidated Net Incomemeans for any period, the sum of net income (or loss) for such period of the Borrower and its Subsidiaries on a consolidated basis determined in accordance with GAAP, but excluding any income of any Person if such Person is not a Subsidiary, except that the Borrower’s direct or indirect equity in the net income of any such person for such period shall be included in such Consolidated Net Income in accordance with GAAP.

    Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio means, as of any date of determination, the ratio of:  (a) the sum of (i) Consolidated Total Liabilities, minus (ii) the amount by which Cash Equivalents held by Borrower and its Subsidiaries as of such date of determination exceed $30,000,000; to (b) Consolidated Tangible Net Worth.

    Consolidated Rent Expense means for such period, total rental expenses attributable to operating leases of the Borrower and its Subsidiaries for real property on a consolidated basis.