Thursday, August 29, 2019

Short Pick: Beware Of Cashless Earnings.............again


Summary
Titan Machinery sales and profits are down dramatically from 2013.
Margins are too small for A 3rd Party Retailer to compete with Manufacturers like Caterpillar and Deere.
Lowered International Revenue Assumptions from up 10 to 15% to merely up 2 to 5%.
Beware of Cashless Earnings! Negative Operating cash for 6 months  FY2021 Negative -($14 million).
Titan Machinery entire growth model through the years has simply been a roll up of mom and pops. The Consolidation story here has ended as the company has closed locations over the last 5 years.  Titan is simply a cyclical stock that should only deserve maybe a PE of 6 to 10 and not trade as a teenager any longer above $13 with a PE in a range of nearly 30X.
Another Year with Insiders selling ahead of this morning's miss.
Well the good news is that CNHI has a dealership like Titan that they can ship machinery to and boost CNHI's sales. Titan doesn't mind as their assets go up on the balance sheet and most of the inventory is carried at ZERO Interest on the FloorPlan Debt. Win Win. (or is it, wink, wink)
The History of this Wall Street game can be found here https://newsgrade.blogspot.com/2018/06/titan-machinery-co-founder-is-companys.html

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