Friday, June 30, 2017

The Positive Contribution of Short Sellers

This week the President, Tom Farley, from NYSE Group Inc said short selling "feels kind of icky and Un-American"

Famed Short Seller Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, was interviewed by Bloomberg later this week and took issue with Farley's comments.

Here is a  May 22, 2003 Presentation by David Rocker to the House of Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprise titled: 

"The Long and Short of Hedge Funds:  Effects of Strategies for Managing Market Risk" 

Included in the above link: 
March 1999 Barron's:"A CROWDED TRADE"
February 2001 Barron's: "Fantasy Accounting"

Monday, June 26, 2017

This Is Why You Must Watch 2,450 in the S&P 500

#FridayNightDump Where Companies Try to Hide Dirt in Plain Sight

When Markets close on Friday nearly every market participant from brokers, analysts, investors, money managers and even the media flee their terminals and turn their attention to their personal lives until they boot up again on Monday morning. Monday is when everyone logs back on gets plugged back into the market pulse and are bombarded with the latest news of the morning.

Experienced management from public companies that are very crafty and slick who wish to hide SEC disclosure file any unfavorable news on Friday Nights when everyone is away knowing that when the new week starts, last week's news is buried. Michelle Leder of @Footnoted coined Friday Night Filings as the #FridayNightDump

Journal of Accounting and Economics published research by professors from Cornell University and Simon Fraser University unveiling statistics of Friday Night Filers.


Using combinations of weekdays and times of day (before, during, and after trading hours) of earnings announcements, we examine whether managers attempt to strategically time these announcements. We document that the worst earnings news is announced on Friday evening and find robust evidence that only Friday evening announcements represent managers’ rational opportunistic behavior. Friday evening announcements are followed by insider trading in the direction of earnings news and the largest post-earnings announcement drift. Managers also attempt to reduce interaction with investors and hide more than just earnings news by announcing on Friday evening. We find that Friday evening announcements occur later in the evening than announcements on other evenings, firms have a reduced propensity to hold conference calls, and major firm restructuring events are relatively more likely to occur after Friday evening announcements."
Titan Machinery Visits #FridayNightDump for 2nd Time in JUNE
Friday Night a Form 4 was Filed by the CoFounder of Titan disclosing that 25,000 shares of stock from ASF LLC was distributed to two investors redeeming their interest in the LLC.

On Friday the stock traded sideways nearly all day all with the overall market but into the close while the overall market stayed sideways, TITAN MACHINERY traded an unusual amount of volume and the stock sold off 2 1/2% closing at $18.17.  The stock averages approximately  150,000 shares per day but on Friday traded over 330,000 shares (2X its norm).

Here is the Chart from Friday Prior the #FRIDAYNIGHTDUMP SEC disclosure:

On Thursday March 25th Titan Machinery in the premarket released their FY2018 1st quarter financials and reported another loss. (Over the last 13 quarters the company has reported an aggregate loss of over ($120 MILLION) although the stock has climbed from $170 million market capitalization to $400 million within the last 8 months. Over the prior 13 quarters SHAREHOLDER EQUITY HAS DECLINED FROM $411 Million to $317 Million!

Warren Buffett Explains this Difference Between Business Value and Book Value if you're buying this stock based on Book Value, think again.

The Company Also Announced :

  • US Sales Declined 17% in Q1 FY2018 vs Q1 FY2017
  • Announced Closing of 15 More Stores (20% of US locations
  • Scheduled Auction Liquidations of Inventories from at least 8 Locations in Q2
  • EPS for Q1 Missed Company's Guidance. Company gave the guidance on March 30th in a Conference Call when they were already 60 day into Q1.
  • Company on Conference Call  Hyped how they were able to pay down nearly $25 Million of an Indenture with Wells Fargo from Operational cash Flow.. But we would learn when the 10Q got filed weeks later that they Actually BORROWED $21 Million from a Credit line during the Quarter to end of the period with $50 million in cash.
  • Lowered FY2018 FULL YEAR EPS Guidance

So how did the stock MIRACULOUSLY  run up from $14.29 at the open on May 26th to above $18 within 24 hours?  A 30% JUMP.

BELOW IS CHART Starting on MAY 25th showing 30% Rise in 24 hours!
Check out this chart from for TITN

Visit to see more great charts.

On Wednesday May 24,2017 the day prior to the press release there was AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY IN the JUNE OUT OF THE MONEY $17.50 CALLS @ $0.10 with the common stock only trading at $15. What made this peculiar is that the stock had not traded above $16  in over 3 YEARS!
Below is a SNAP SHOT taken from Yahoo on that day. These Options that were bought for $0.10 climbed to over $2.75 as the stock peaked above $19 less than 3 weeks later, while the $15 Calls climbed above $4.00!
2700% PROFIT !

So Where We?
Oh, How did the Stock Get GOOSED UP with such Horrible Financials and Lower Guidance?

Leave it to the MAESTRO!
At 9:30 am on the morning of March 26 the Chairman of the Company was still on the Conference Call with the stock down @ $14.19 and talked about Growth Through Acquisitions.  So the Company is Closing  15 more locations after closing over a dozen less than 2 years ago and pitching Wall Street FINEST about strategic ACQUISITIONS sending the stock up 30% from Thursday morning to Friday close. The word  "ACQUISITION" WAS MENTIONED 13 TIMES on the Call that morning  

The Maestro wasn't Finished! the following week TITAN MACHINERY would file a FORM 4 disclosing that the CHAIRMAN, the Maestro himself, SOLD STOCK ON That Prior FRIDAY into the RAMP! up 30% from Thursday.

#FRIDAYNIGHTDUMP On Friday June 2nd at 5:27pm  TITAN FILED their 10Q

  •  disclosing additional monies they borrowed 
  •  Reduced Credit Lines
  • Footnotes  disclosing new SALES AND SERVICE AGREEMENTS with CNHI 
  • ***note CNHI Construction generated generated NET INCOME of $2 Million on $2 Billion in Revenue. How a third party retailer like TITAN MACHINERY can even think about making a profit when the Manufcaturer can't earn money.

#FRIDAYNIGHT DUMP  When you're really SAVY like the Co-Founder of this Company, who also happens to be the Chairman of the UNDERWRITER Firm,  you make the company File A DUMP on the FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND like when the origianl AUDITOR of the Company Resigned. Another WILDLY TRADING SESSION that was followed by the 8K over that holiday weekend. (From the AUDITOR CAROUSEL)

  • Has TITAN MACHINERY been able to Consistently Earn Profits on their Service and Parts Division by GENERATING PROFITS when Repairing their OWN INVENTORY?
  • prior Annual Reports and how the company valued USED and NEW EQUIPMENT
  • How Company Revenue Declined from over $2 Billion and Equipment Revenue declined to under $800 Million after closing nearly 20% of Locations and reducing the workforce by nearly 20% but he company STILL MANAGED TO MAINTAIN SERVICE AND PARTS PROFITS while reducing PARTS inventories via AUCTION LIQUIDATION?
If you are still reading and REALLY WANT TO Learn More about TITAN MACHINERY GAMES including:
  • SEC Division of Corporate Finance Comments regarding 4 FILINGS
  • Auditor FEES with Deloitte as Doubled while Company Sales have decline over 50%
  • the RECENT Resignation of a CoFounder as President and Director who is still listed on the Comapny's HOME PAGE AS PRESIDENT 
  • and so much more

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Harvard Professor, "We are Building Artificial Brains and Uploading Minds to Cloud right now"

On Twitter I follow @PainCapital and he shared this insightful video.

If you follow the Markets, I recommend that you follow 
@PainCapital on Twitter 

Friday, June 9, 2017

Thursday, June 8, 2017

California High School Sees $24 Million Return on Investment in SNAP

In 2012, St. Francis High School fund of Mountain View, California invested $15,000 (@ $0.007 per share) in Snapchat was worth $24 million in March 2017 after SNAP went public
The Fund  sold about 1.4 million shares of the 2.1 million shares it owned @ $17 each.
Barry Eggers, a founding partner of venture capital firm Lightspeed Venture Partners, learned about SNAP from his 2 children who were students at the St. Francis in 2012.  

We were formed in 2010 as Future Freshman, LLC, a California limited liability company, and changed our name to Toyopa Group, LLC in 2011. In 2012, we incorporated as Snapchat, Inc., a Delaware corporation, and changed our name to Snap Inc. in 2016.
we are an “emerging growth company” as defined in the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act of 2012, or the JOBS Act. We may take advantage of certain exemptions from various public company reporting requirements, including not being required to have our internal control over financial reporting audited by our independent registered public accounting firm under Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, or the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, reduced disclosure obligations regarding executive compensation in our periodic reports and proxy statements, and exemptions from the requirements of holding a nonbinding advisory vote on executive compensation and any golden parachute payments. We may take advantage of these exemptions for up to five years or until we are no longer an “emerging growth company,” whichever is earlier. In addition, the JOBS Act provides that an “emerging growth company” can delay adopting new or revised accounting standards until those standards apply to private companies. We have not elected to avail ourselves of this exemption and, therefore, we will be subject to the same new or revised accounting standards as other public companies that are not “emerging growth companies.”