Sunday, January 31, 2016

Under Armour Cash Flow Should Have Investors Running Away

"Stocklemon believes that is one of the best stock advisory sites on the web.  It judges companies based on a proprietary OPS rating and covers both long and short positions."---------September 22,2003 Andrew Left founder of Citron Research

(my former twitter handle was @GFNNStock)
"From time to time I'm asked about analysts, diggers whose work I really respect, who do things well. Tom Renna, @GFNNstock, is a must follow— Roddy Boyd (@BoydRoddy) September 7, 2013

Feb. 5,2015 -- Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank talks about why he's buying the MyFitnessPal and Endomondo apps for a total of about $560 million.
         Equities Research Looks at Under Armour

*Negative Cash Flow (~goodwill $472 million)
*Class Action Lawsuit Settlement
*CEO New Stock Trading Plan
*Series Class C Shares
CFO/COO Departure
*Morgan Stanley Downgrade $62 (1/30/16) 

On Thursday morning Under Armour (NYSE: UA) reported FY2015 earnings sending the stock $20 higher from $65.58 to close the week @ $85.43. Up 30% in two days.

Record Sales and earnings were super impressive, but a close look at the cash flow statement raises a RED FLAG.

note: As of Sunday (1/31/16) Under Armour has not yet filed their 10K annual report with the Securities and Exchange Commission as of this morning so we are not able to dig deep into footnotes and other exhibits at this time.

A look at the 8K filed on Thursday can be found here. 

Before I jump to the FY2015 Negative $44 Million Operational Cash Flow, lets look at 2 recent SEC filings that should make investors wonder how many total shares are really outstanding when including Class A, Class  B and Class C shares.

Shares Fall 8.5% in 1 day
On November 12,2015 Under Armour traded at $94.16 with volume of 3 million shares.
On November 13,2015 Under Armour traded at $86.08 with volume of 7 million shares.
What happened?
At 10am November 12th CEO Kevin Plank filed this SC 13D/A with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
"(Kevin Plank) entered into a pre-arranged stock trading plan to sell shares of the Issuer’s Class B Common Stock and, if and when issued, the Issuer’s Class C Common Stock."
"If the Reporting Person completes all the planned sales under this trading plan, he would beneficially own 35,700,000 shares of Class B Common Stock and Class A Common Stock, representing approximately 16.6% of the total shares of Class A and Class B Common Stock outstanding as of September 30, 2015 and representing approximately 66.5% of the combined voting power of the Issuer outstanding as of September 30, 2015". 

Consolidated Class Action Lawsuit
August 14,2015 this DEFA 14A filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission was filed.
"Under Armour currently involved in a consolidated class action lawsuit brought against the Company and the members of the Company’s Board of Directors on behalf of purported stockholders of the Company in connection with the creation by the Company of a new class of common stock, referred to as the Class C common stock, par value $0.0003 1/3 per share"
Shares declined from an all time high above $100 in October to a 52 week low in January 2016 

October 7,2015 8K Settlement

October 13,2015 8K COO/CFO Departure

Are You Still Long?
Operational Cash Flow for FY2015 was NEGATIVE $44 Million!
Operational Cash Flow FY2014 of Positive $219 Million.

Year over Year Operational Cash Flow declined by $263 Million

Operational Cash Flow
FY2010: $50 million
FY2011: $15 million
Fy2012: $200million
FY2013: $120 million
FY2014: $219 million
FY2015: NEGATIVE ($44 Million)

Cash Flow used in 2 Acquisitions during 2015.
$475 million for
$85 million for Endomondo
$560 Million total cost, 
$472 million GOODWILL 

Under Armour 
Stock Price has had a History of Following Cash Flow.
November 18,2005 IPO
 Under Writer: Goldman Sachs. 9.5 million shares @ $13 (adj for 2 (2 for 1)splits $3.25).

Shares went from $13 to $68 on August 21,2007.

Enter Equities Research

Equities Research went bearish (A-E) on UA at $68 to $15 before going Bullish.(F)

Short $68  (70% profit in 15 months)
Hottest Stock with Weakest Cash FLow August 21,2007 $68
B.Short $48  (58% profit in 1 year)
Large Caps May Not Always Be Less Speculative

C. Short $ 45 (55% profit in 9 months)
Love Your Valentine, Not Your Stocks

D. Short $38   (47% profit in 3 months)
Beware:  Standard & Poors Adds A Poor Quality Stock to Index

E. Short $33   (40% profit in 3 months)

F. long $15 GFNN news story upgrade

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

December 2012: Stockdiagnostics the Utility
Finding Stocks that Fall 30% to 99%

29 GFNN STOCKDIAGNOSTICS Portfolios created by Equities Research founder , Tom Renna

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Under Armour FY2015 Earnings Sends Stock Flying Up $15

Under Armour (NYSE: UA : $83.58 ) 2:06pm est.

Market Capitalization has increased by $3.3 Billion today to $19 Billion!

Shares of Under Armour are up 22% today on volume of 14 million.
The stock was down 15% year to date ($80.61 on December 31st close) as of yesterday's close @ $68.58.
As of 2pm this afternoon, the stock is up 3.6% year to date.

On September 17,2015 the stock hit an all time high of $105.89. and is off 21% over the past 4 months.

Operational Cash flow for the 4th quarter came in at $270 million up 35% compared to Operational Cash flow in the Fy2014 4th quarter of $199 million.

There is one Number that investors should be slightly concerned with though, 8k

Operational Cash Flow for FY2015 was NEGATIVE $44 Million!
Operational Cash Flow FY2014 of Positive $219 Million.

Year over Year Operational Cash Flow declined by $263 Million

Operational Cash Flow
FY2010: $50 million
FY2011: $15 million
Fy2012: $200million
FY2013: $120 million
FY2014: $219 million

FY2015: NEGATIVE ($44 Million)

Monday, January 25, 2016

The Year Ahead 

Forecast for January 2016 to January 2017

If You Were Born Today, January 22: 
You are highly intelligent, although your viewpoints are not always understood and your thinking is often far ahead of its time. Easily bored and quickly distracted, you can be impatient at times if others are not as quick or clever as you. While broad-minded overall, you can also be quite stubborn in your thinking. Work and daily routines need to change, even in small ways, in order to keep you interested and challenged. Many of you have a strong travel itch. Famous people born today: John Hurt, Graham Kerr, Francis Bacon, Diane Lane, Sam Cooke, Michael Hutchence, Linda Blair.
Your Birthday Year Forecast: 
This can be a year in which you are building faith and confidence in your personality, skills, and talents. You can experience a stronger desire to seek out meaning, wisdom, and mental stimulation in your life during this period. Others might frequently turn to you for guidance. You can have many projects and ideas on the table now. You are hungry for variety, knowledge, and mental excitement. You could have a pleasing way with words, whether spoken or written (or both), and a love for order in the world of ideas and problem solving.
Your will to put your projects into motion is strong this year. It's strong for confidently drawing upon your more creative instincts. This is also a good year for partnering up for activities. There can be a significant person in your life who fuels your ambition and/or builds your confidence, spurring you on to new heights. 
You can be especially committed and dedicated to learning or a personal interest this year, and you might pour a lot of energy into it. This can be a very fruitful period as a result. Your mind is working at top speed this year. This means you can get a whole lot done, but it also suggests that you may not be paying attention to important details. Others may not always jump on board right away when it comes to your ideas or opinions. Your senses are stimulated, and you could have sudden flashes of insight or fresh new ideas. You may very well find it challenging to deal with routine matters or monotonous tasks. Learning new things is your passion this year--not recycling old ideas or performing repetitive processes. 
There may be a project, idea, or person that demands much of your attention or occupies much of your thoughts. Your need to investigate and read between the lines is strong this year. It's best used for research and increased awareness of psychological motivations, both of others and yourself.
You are more inclined to act upon your intuition this year, and your creative impulses are potent. You have an influence with you that acts to soften your disposition, smoothing out some of the tension in your life. At times, you will have a "what will be, will be" attitude. Dancing, swimming, photography, arts, and entertainment are favored. If you are an artist, this could be an especially inspired, imaginative, and productive year. Pay attention to your gut feelings, which will, more often than not, give you valuable information. If you are involved in sales, you will be able to tune into your client's inner desires and motivations. 
Jupiter transits in harmony with your Sun in September and October, and you have a stronger than usual desire to improve, grow, and learn. This is a fortunate aspect that helps boost optimism and confidence, and you are able to attract fortunate circumstances into your life as a result. Problems are easier to resolve. Matters related to universities, higher education, organized religion, publishing, legal affairs, and foreign interests can be especially strong. It's a strong time to further your education. You are likely to enjoy a larger perspective on matters that keeps you from getting lost in details or overly frustrated by everyday stresses. 
This is a good year for cultivating friendships and romantic connections. There is a pleasant focus on nurture and support, and you may feel pleasantly attached. 
You can experience more popularity or a stronger interest in others and making connections. This is a year of general fortune through your relationships and meetings.  
You are motivated and confident this year, and a partnership may be behind this increased enthusiasm. This can be a year in which you are doing a lot of connecting and creating. The connections you make tend to be growth-oriented and encouraging. Learning, communicating, sharing, and teaching can be successful and in strong focus. People tend to easily see your intelligence or unique insight this year. The tendency to overdo things, however, should be watched, and you should try to avoid pushing yourself to do too much, particularly mentally.

2016 is a Number Five year for you. Ruled by Mercury. This is a year of exploration and freedom. It's a time when exploration and reaching out to others brings opportunities. It's a good time to advertise and sell. Surprises are in store, and the routine is broken. This is a year when exciting relationships can be formed, or, if you are already in a partnership, new life is breathed into the relationship. Advice - explore, look for adventure, keep your eyes open for opportunities, mingle.
2017 will be a Number Six year for you. Ruled by Venus. This is a year of relative contentment. It is a time when love is the easiest to attract, and partnerships formed under this vibration have a better chance for longevity. You are able to attract others, and material things as well, this year. This is a good year for establishing harmony in the family and in the home. Advice - develop existing relationships, be positive and receptive because these kinds of energies help you to attract what you desire.

If you know your birth time, you may be interested in a full Solar Return Yearly Forecast Report for $4.95 US. These lengthy, detailed, and comprehensive reports reveal the themes and circumstances you are likely to encounter in the coming year, and are based on your actual birth day, time, and place, as well as your current place of residence. This report also makes a great birthday present--for yourself or others. See a sample of one of these reports here, and find out more information about this personalized birthday forecast here. Please note: we only recommend this report if you know your birth time.

Apple's Record Breaking Holiday Will Highlight Q1 Report

APPLE closed Tuesday January 5,2016 @ $ 102.71.
On morning of January 6,2016 Apple made the following announcement.

Apple Press Release from Investor Page:
CUPERTINO, California January 6, 2016 (pre market)

Record-Breaking Holiday Season for the App Store


813-777-3529 Cell

Thursday, January 21, 2016

James Chanos from Kynikos Associates

James Chanos, Founder and Managing Partner of Kynikos Associates, explains his investment approach as a Short-Only Subadviser within the AB Multi-Manager Alternative Strategies Fund.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Memo from Howard Marks of Oak Tree Capital , "On The Couch"

January 14,2016
A Memo from Howard Marks of Oak Tree Capital sent to clients "On the Couch"

January 19,2016

Latest memo from Howard Marks: What Does the Market Know?

video: Howard Marks: Talks at Google
Warren Buffett said, "When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read." Howard is the co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. He is known in the investment community for his "Oaktree memos" to clients which detail investment strategies and insight into the economy. He treats investing as equal parts psychology and finance, and his book The Most Important Thing provides "uncommon sense for the thoughtful investor."
(Originally uploaded by Google on March 29, 2015)

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

MidasLetter: Jim Rogers Is Short S&P 500 (INX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

Midas Letter : 

Jim Rogers Is Short S&P 500 (INX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

" financial crisis of 2016 will be much worse than 2008." - Jim Rogers


The Specter of Risk in the Derivatives of Bond Mutual Funds - by Fabio Cortes 
"Investors in leveraged bond mutual funds, when faced with a rapid deterioration in the value of their investments, may rush to cash in, particularly if this results in greater than expected losses relative to benchmarks (and the historical performance of their investments). This could then reinforce a vicious cycle of fire sales by mutual fund managers, further investor losses and redemptions, and more volatility"

ValueWalk: Title III of JOBSACT

What Title III Of The JOBS Act Really Means

by George Gaprindashvili, PitchBook


Friday, January 15, 2016

SP500 Index Back to 1875 But Stocks Are HIGHER

On August 25,2015 the Standard & Poors 500 Index was at 1867.

Today the S&P500 is back to 1867 right now intraday , but..

Company      (TICKER)   August 25     January 15     Return
SP500           Index            1867.61           1867.61          0%
Facebook      FB                  $83.00            $94.36          13.7%
Google          GOOG           $582.06           $692.28          19%
Amazon        AMZN            $466.37           $569.75          22%%
LinkedIN       LNKD             $169.94          $192.08          13%
Priceline       PCLN             $1178.81        $1095.65         -7%
Disney           DIS                $95.28            $94.34             -1%
NetFlix           NFLX            $101.52           $102.96          1.4%

Thursday, January 14, 2016



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Check out this chart from for SSYS

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Check out this chart from for CONN

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Jim Cramer Says Watch FANG Stocks to Learn When Market Has Bottomed

FACEBOOK (FB) $98.37 52 week high/low $72/$110.65

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AMAZON (AMZN) $593 52 week high/low $285.25/$696.44

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NETFLIX (NFLX)$107.06 52 week high/low $45.84/$133.27

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ALPHABET (Google) (GOOG) $714.72 52 week high/low $496.40/$779.98

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Monday, January 11, 2016

RIP David Bowie - Heroes (live)

I, I will be king
And you, you will be queen
Though nothing, will drive them away
We can beat them, just for one day
We can be heroes, just for one day
And you, you can be mean
And I, I'll drink all the time
'Cause we're lovers, and that is a fact
Yes we're lovers, and that is that
Though nothing, will keep us together
We could steal time, just for one day
We can be heroes, forever and ever
What'd you say?
I, I wish you could swim
Like the dolphins, like dolphins can swim
Though nothing, nothing will keep us together
We can beat them, forever and ever
Oh we can be heroes, just for one day
I, I will be king
And you, you will be queen
Though nothing will drive them away
We can be heroes, just for one day
We can be us, just for one day

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Social Capital: Your Personal ‘Balance Sheet’-- Mae Chapman

Follow Mae Chapman on Twitter 

Friday, January 1, 2016

Forest Gump Invested in Apple Pre-IPO. Does Star Wars Give A Stock Tip?

July 6,1994 was the premier of the motion picture, "Forrest Gump". We learned in the movie that Lieutenant Dane had invested the fortune Forrest made in The Bubba Gump Shrimp Company into shares of a fruit company and that Forrest was set for life and would never have to work again.

I have concluded that Forrest's stock had to be purchased in the Apple Company (NASDAQ: AAPL) before the December 12,1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO).
  • Dec 12, 1980 Apple Co. IPO: 4.6 million at $22 per share ($0.39 split adj) 
  • July 6, 1994 Apple traded at $26.13 ($0.85 split adjusted)
If Forrest had simply invested in the IPO his investment would have only returned 118% over the 14 year period, so I am concluding that for his Apple shares to make him a fortune shares had to be bought pre-IPO.

12/12/1980 to 7/6/1994
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20th Anniversary
On December 12,2000 shares of Apple were $15.38 ($1.02 split adjusted) which saw a return of 161%  from the IPO investment. If you had purchased the shares at close on the day the shares went public @ $29 ($0.51 split adjusted) your total 20 year return would have been a mere 100%.

Steve Jobs returns as Interim CEO and shares Crashed 
On August 16,1997 Steve Jobs was appointed interim CEO and Apple shares traded @ $21.94 ($0.73 split adjusted).  Three months after Jobs returned, on December 23,1997 shares of Apple had fallen to $12.94 ($0.43 split adjusted), a decline of 41%.

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Apple Stock Fell 80% in 9 months
Prior to Apple's 20th anniversary of being public it's all time high was set on March 23,2000 @ $150 ($5.01 split adjusted). On June 21,2000 shares split 2 for 1 and by December 12,2000 (20th anniversary), 9 months after reaching its all time high, shares were trading at $15.38.  80% lower in 9 months.

3/23/2000 to 12/12/2000
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Forrest Gump disclosing he was long Apple Computer stock was the time to jump in.
Movie goers who had walked out the theatre on July 6, 1994 and purchased Apple stock have seen a 12,283% return through December 31,2015 year end close $105.26.  A 25% annual return for 21 years!

 Crowdfunding will be a game changer for mom and pop
Apple Computer's IPO was not Blue Sky in Massachusetts because it was too risky.