Showing posts with label Stratasys. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stratasys. Show all posts

Thursday, January 14, 2016

TOP 4 SHORT PICKS HIT NEW LOWS

SHORT PICKS






Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for TITN

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Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for SHLM

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Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for SSYS

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Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for CONN

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Wednesday, April 29, 2015

"Gold is Only Answer" Fred Hickey Tweets "Stock Market is Toast",




Top Short Picks from Equities Research 

 Stratasys is now trading @ $42 this morning pre-market after the company announced last night after the close weak fundamentals.

Equities Research Warned on Shulman @$48 on April 7th and shares closed last night under $42.

Equities research Warned on Titan Machinery @ $30 and shares fell to a ytd low on March 10th @ $12.10. Shares have since gained 31% trading at a Market Capitalization of $310 million. Equities Research continues to warn on TITAN as it trades at a forward PE over 700.


Follow Fred Hickey on Twitter here

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Saturday, March 14, 2015

Thanks For Following !!! High Quality Followers

My handle on twitter is @stockpicker908 , my original handle was @GFNNstock

I don't have that many followers, but i really appreciate these bright folks that interact with me. Not only are they smart , but they are good guys/ladies on the up and up.

The Tweet and kind words in my post from Roddy Boyd is the greatest compliment that I ever received in my life! Thank You Roddy Boyd 

Everyone receiving this should visit and bookmark Roddy Boyd's site.





































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Thursday, February 5, 2015

TOP SHORT PICK STRATASYS GETTING FLATTENED

Stratasys (NASDAQ: SSYS $58.38) was top short pick here at Equities Research based on their poor fundamentals and low margins.
The Shares had a nice run higher after a September 2013 underwriting led by JP Morgan when the company received over $400 million.
After announcing poor quarterly results this week shares tumbled over $25 this week as investors lost nearly 30% since Monday.

BARRONs: 

Stratasys Plunges 27%: Q4, ’15 View Miss on MakerBot; Steps Up Spending























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Monday, May 13, 2013

After the Close: Stratasys Reports (Negative) Operational Cash Flow

Stratasys Ltd (NASDAQ: SSYS) released a 1st quarter 2013 press release this morning before the market opened, followed by an 60 minute conference call at 8:30am est.

 The Press Released focused on positive NON GAAP performance and attributed their weak GAAP performance due to merger expenses.
(from the press release:
  • "Non-GAAP net income of $17.6 million for the first quarter, or $0.43 per diluted share, represents a 40% increase over the pro forma non-GAAP $12.6 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, reported for the same period last year.
  • GAAP net income for the first quarter was a loss of $15.5 million, or ($0.40) per share, versus a pro forma loss of $8.4 million, or ($0.23) per share, for the same period last year."
The stock opened up @ $85.57, and after trading over 2.3 million shares closed the day @ $85.34. Shares are trading at 9 TIMES SALES! 

There was approximately 20 Bullish Press Releases made throughout the trading day from Investor's Business Daily, Motley Fool, TheStreet.com and SeekingAlpha.
All the headlines spoke about : "IS A BUY", "EARNINGS BEAT", "Unusually High Volume", "Price Target Increase", "ADVANCE",  "Upgrade", "Price Target Increase", "Unleash", "Craze", "Monster Volume", "Solid", Rally" to name a few..It sounded like the Internet Bubble Age when Wall Street was enamored with the DOT.COM Hype.

 What bothered me all day is that all the press releases and conference call made no mention of the company's statement of cash flow. A dozen analyst participated in the Q & A on the conference call and not one asked about cash flow.

 It wasn't until 6pm this evening that the statement of cash flow was disclosed, and oh boy, it was WEAK!

Operational Cash Flow for the 1st Quarter 2013 stayed negative for the third consecutive quarter. 
Q1 2012 + $6,878,000
Q1 2013 -$12,252,000 (-278%)

 Q4 2011  +$9,551,000
Q4 2012  -$815,000 (-109%)

 Q3 2011  +$5,935,000
Q3 2012  -$9,629,000 (-262%)

 Trailing Twelve months ending March 31,2012 : + $25,782,000
Trailing Twelve months ending March 31,2013   - $17,637,000 (-168%)



On April 13, 2012, the day prior to announcing the merger, shares of SSYS were under $35.00, with 21 million shares outstanding (for a $735 million market capitalization.)
 
So this is more than a stock going from $35 to $82 per share, this is about a company market capitalization going from $735 million to $3.2 billion in 1 year...when all they did was merge with another company to have the combined entity report $1.4 million Operating cash flow for 2012!



  • April 2012 : 21 million shares outstanding at $35 a share.

Market cap was $775 million


  • March 23,2013 38.5 million shares outstanding at $72 a share. Market cap was $2.7 billion


  • Today 41.1 million shares outstanding @ $84 a share. market cap is $3.4 billion


Carrying $822 million of GOODWILL is another great line item. and the HALF BILLION DOLLAR increase in INTANGIBLE assets

  • Company will add 4 million shares outstanding on January 1st 2014 for authorized issuance of stock to management.



Today's numbers included a $300,000 tax credit. no mention of it anywhere.
  • From March Year end SEC disclosure:Q1 will have this $300,000 tax credit,
    •  In January of 2013, the President of the U.S. signed into law The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, which contained provisions that retroactively extended the U.S. research and experimentation tax credit to 2012 and 2013. Because the extension did not occur by December 31, 2012, the Company’s effective income tax rate for 2012 did not include the benefit of the credit for 2012. However, because the credit was retroactively extended to include 2012, the Company expects to recognize the full benefit of the 2012 credit in the first quarter of 2013. The Company estimates that its credit for 2012 is approximately $300,000. That amount will be reported as a discrete income tax benefit in the first quarter of 2013.


(THe original deal of the combined entities was valued at $1.4 billion,  changed to $2.2 billion in Piper Merger disclosure during Q3 2013 in this DEF Proxy, and was changed again December (according to most recent 20F annual report, where Objet alone was valued at $1.4 billion:.

  •  
    As described in note 2, in December 2012, for accou
    nting purposes, Stratasys, Inc. was deemed to have
    acquired Objet for a purchase price of
    $1,341 million, and as a result, the Company recogn
    ized $797.1 million in goodwill.

Only problem now is OBJET shareholders will need to get liquid. 6 month period is June 1,2013 (December 3rd 2012 was close of deal). Expect 45% of shares outstanding to be registered within 3 weeks.
Older Posts:
Stratasys Reminds me of the Chanos breakdown of HPQ
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Monday, March 11, 2013

Take Our Warnings Seriously



Take Our Warnings seriously

This week's Warning

A look back: CMG, Apple, UA
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Monday, February 25, 2013

Stratasys makes YTD low under $61

Stratasys traded under $61 this morning making a new Year to Date low. SSYS was down $31 from it's 18 year high set in January at $92.30.

Stratasys is scheduled to report financials on March 4th for the period ending December 31,2012.

to read Equities Research Warnings click links below:

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Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Stratasys down $24 in 3 Weeks...now what?

Stratasys (SSYS) has traded down off it's all time (18 year) high 19 days ago at $92 to $68.

Now What?

Well I personally think the stock is fundamentally overvalued and I really can't see anyone buying stock until the December 31,2012 financials are reported on approx. March 4th and listen to the conference call.

The cash flow statement is very weak. The balance sheet is strong so I don't think the stock is going down forever.
I am concerned that the owners of OBJET will have their (15 plus million) shares being registered sometime this year, (next quarter?).

here is a technical chart from Greg Harmon of DragonFly. Harmon has nailed the stock time and time again like he does with so much of his work. To See a technical chart by Greg Harmon of DragonFly Capital,  click here

here is a NYTIMES BLOG from this weekend and a MorningStar report that is scary.

2013 Posts on Stratasys:
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Friday, February 15, 2013

Citron Research Raises Red Flag on 3-D Printing

Stratasys (SSYS) shares are trading below $70 a share this morning. Stratasys is down $18 since Equities Research Warning in January.
 (click here to view Citron Research's Published article yesterday regarding the 3-D space)


Readers of my column and newsletter subscribers are aware that Equities Research Warned on Stratasys in January @ $87 a share.
(click links below to visit 4 articles posted in January)

 


Update: 
  • The company hasn't filed a financial statement since November and postponed their February report to approx March 4th.
    Its too Opaque to buy this stock. They gave no guidance at the Needham conference.

    Need to see Numbers. even the March report will only be numbers through Dec 31, meanwhile 1st quarter will almost be over on March 4.

    There's approx 38 million shares out. Times $72 = approx $2.7 billion mkt cap.

    if this company was trading at a forward PE of 27 they would have to have 2013 net income of $100 million. I don't see it.

    At a fwd PE of 54 for 2013 they would have to have 2013 net income of $50million...i don't see it.

    Reality is ....all we know is htat for the first 9months of 2012 they generated $2 million in operational cash flow.

    $2 million...with a "M".....-----


  •  

     

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Thursday, January 17, 2013

The Most Overpriced Stock in the Market

Including A letter I wrote to a friend today. Stratasys Limited (SSYS) Nasdaq: $87.00 is trading near it's 18 year high of $87 set this past week. Q3 2012 operational cash flow= -($9million) -262% decline Q3 2011 operational cash flow+ $5million 9mos 2012 : $2million in operational, 9mos 2011: $12million in operational cash flow MARKET CAP : $3.4 billion shares outstanding : 41 million average volume this week : 350,000 shares a day company just acquired a private company for $1 billion the first week of December. Stock is Grossly overvalued. Here is a letter I wrote to a friend with links on my research. it may take some time to read it all but if I'm right, there would be a big pay day on the short side trade. My SSYS research has two issues, one is the wild valuation but the second point is the Transparency/Disclosures from the Company and the Online Financial Sites that are using old data but are not disclosing that it is old data. (in other words every mom & pop in the world is home reading old data and have no clue that it's old data). A. SSYS: The trouble I have with SSYS is that the company generated negative operational cash flow for the 3rd Quarter of 2012. Q3 Operational cash flow was Negatice $9.6 million down from positive $5million the prior year Q3. (over 250% decline.) 9mos ending Sept 2012 operational cash flow $2.3 million, $10million decline vs. 9mos ending Sept 2011. (82% DECLINE.) Poor EPS Quality The operational cash flow for the trailing twelve months ending Sept 2012 was a mere $11 million, down 42% from the prior year comparable ttm. For a business generating only generating $11 million operational cash flow to be trading at a $1.8 billion valuation is ridiculous. imo. (that's over 163X operational cash flow). I understand that sometimes small cap super growth companies have such high high multiples, but htis is a company that's been around over 18 years and has only grown these past two years primarily via acquisition, doesn't really excite me. B. On another note: "Be careful When you read any Number on Any Site" Morningstar data regarding SSYS is using November data. The acquisition of Objet was completed the 1st week of December. Since the first week of December the new company Stratasys Limited has 41 million shares outstanding. Therefore the current market capitalization is $3.4 billion. Motley Fool and other Analyst writing about the stock have put out estimates. Not sure where the EPS estimates come from, but are those estimates based on 21 million shares or 41 million shares outstanding? I've been trying to find out. I was on the Needham Conference call the other day and the Company gave NO GUIDANCE. NONE. they made a slight mention about the cash position of the 2 companies combined "as of the 1st Q last year 2012" was $140 million. (so what, right?) I contacted the Wall Street Journal yesterday to get some clarity on why data is unclear, here is there response. The Journal responded by saying that the data won't be updated until the company reports their Year end numbers which are expected in February. Last night I listened to the Needham Conference call and SSYS announced that their year end numbers have been postponed from Feb to approx March 4,2013. Until those figures are updated, the public only has the data available on ZACKS, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg & Morningstar, CNBC,TheStreet,. The problem is each of those sites are using old data that won't be updated till hopefully March. This leaves many unanswered questions: What is EPS? ball park? What is PE multiple? ballpark? To much uncertainty for anyone to speculate on. What I do know is that the two business valued themselves for the purpose of the merger at ($1 billion for Objet) & ($1.2 billion for SSYS) 45% & 55% Why the shares are hanging around a $3.4 billion market cap 40 days later is questionable imho And here's a nice lawsuit that shareholders in Minnesota brought against company to squash deal only to have SSYS settle with them Have a great day tom 908-477-4796 Disclaimer. All Newsletters, published by Equities Research, LLC , does not constitute a recommendation by Equities Research, LLC to buy, sell, hold any security, or to follow any particular trading or investment strategy. Also, the information provided should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. An investor's best course of action must be based upon individual circumstances. EquitiesResearch.com shall not be liable for any damages or costs of any type arising out of or in any way connected with your use of The Newsletters, or any of our services. EquitiesResearch.com, its officers and employees may buy and sell any position in the securities or companies mentioned herein.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2013

3 D Printer Stock Stratasys is Gonna Get Flattened

CLICK YouTube Video Created on January 14,2013 DDD & SSYS


To See a technical chart by Greg Harmon of DragonFly Capital,  click here:  

Click to Equities Research original post at my home page.  

After Reporting 2011 2nd quarter financials for the period ending June 30,2011, Stockdiagnostics upgraded SSYS from a 2 to 1 ranking (highest ranking) because the company reported it's 4th consecutive positive operational cash flow quarter. Shares have since climbed from $25 to over $80.

SSYS reported 2012 3rd quarter financials for the period ending September 30,2012 and the company reported Negative operational cash flow of -($9.6 million) a 262% decline vs. Q3 2011. hence the downgrade.


click image to enlarge:





  • ON December 3,2012 Stratasys announced the completed Merger of Objet Inc. 

    This acquisition brought the number of shares outstanding to 41 million.
    At $83 a share the company today has a market capitalization over $3.4 billion.

    The problem is if you go to the Company's investor relations page   .
    it states the company only has 21 million shares outstanding and  a $1.8 billion market cap. (40 days have passed since the share number has increased to 41.
    This error also appears at Yahoo Finance and Morningstar. 

    Motley Fool has published articles analyzing the stock using 21 million shares outstanding and not 41 million shares outstanding.

    ...and the Yahoo message boards have too many rumors to list about the company possibly being taken over by General Electric or Hewlett Packard.

    The Annual CES Show  last week added hype to the fire as well. 

    If these online financial websites have the wrong number of shares outstanding then it begs to ask the following questions:


    • I would think that with nearly twice as many shares outstanding that the EPS (Earning Per Share of $0.86 should probably need to be reduced (adjusted lower) or the PE multiple will need to be Ratched up.

    • Of course Objet numbers (earnings, if there are any) will need to be added to EPS  or subtracted).

    • The short interest % ratio should probably be looked at as well. if every other data point is adjusted I guess short interest is probably going to be lower %.

    • The daily volume of shares all of sudden is less in proportion to more shares outstanding as well. In other words, in November 600,000 share average volume was significant with only 21 million shares outstanding.

    • Today's 399,000 share volume means even less in the big picture with nearly twice as many shares outstanding.

    • volume this DRY at a top (all time high  (18 yr) was made last week @ $87) is referenced as a CROWDED TRADE.

    • this could end badly.

    • I think the Company SSYS is way overdue to Update their Investor Relations Website where they say there are only 21 million shares outstanding.

    • I know they use Morningstar numbers but that is no excuse for posting an erroneous number.

    • Its been nearly 40 days and their investor relation page still shows $1.8 billion mkt cap.


    Objet was valued at $1,015,633,034 according to merger valuation in SEC filing. Objet owns 45% of new entity and the former SSYS retained 55%. (excluding options and insider positions and miscel.).
     not that important but original SSYS would be $1.2 billion value.
    Now together 40 days later valuation is still over $3 billion

     My letter to the WSJ and BloombergAlthough WSJ & Bloomberg have the correct shares outstanding and mkt capitalization correct, neither of them Readjusted the EPS. THE EPS on these two sites needs to be adjusted down taking into account more shares. THe $0.86 EPS they state should be $0.46 and then they would also have to correct their PE multiples from 98 to 190 PE.
    • hi
                 on your quote page for the ticker SSYS

    you adjusted the shares outstanding correctly to 41 million up from 21 million.

    but you did not adjust the eps down fro $0.86 to $0.47

    and you would then need to change the PE from 99 to 190

    Bloomberg page is wrong too in the same way.

    meanwhile Morningstar, Yahoo FInance and SSYS's home page still show 21 million shares outstanding and the mkt cap they show is a mere $1.8 billion which should be $3.4 billion the way WSJ has it.


    Someone need to fix all this ERRONEOUS DATA and let the world Know

    small investors think their buying at a PE of 98 when they're buying at a PE of maybe 190, maybe even higher

    WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE responds to my email : click here 

    Learn About Importance of Operational Cash Flow:

 
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