Founder of Equities Research. Stockdiagnostics Specialist

Founder of Equities Research. Stockdiagnostics Specialist
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Tuesday, January 15, 2013

3 D Printer Stock Stratasys is Gonna Get Flattened

CLICK YouTube Video Created on January 14,2013 DDD & SSYS


To See a technical chart by Greg Harmon of DragonFly Capital,  click here:  

Click to Equities Research original post at my home page.  

After Reporting 2011 2nd quarter financials for the period ending June 30,2011, Stockdiagnostics upgraded SSYS from a 2 to 1 ranking (highest ranking) because the company reported it's 4th consecutive positive operational cash flow quarter. Shares have since climbed from $25 to over $80.
<click to SSYS Stockdiagnostics OPS chart  
<click to SSYS Stockdiagnostics OPS chart
<click to SSYS Stockdiagnostics OPS 20 quarter chart
<click to SSYS Stockdiagnostics FCF chart


SSYS reported 2012 3rd quarter financials for the period ending September 30,2012 and the company reported Negative operational cash flow of -($9.6 million) a 262% decline vs. Q3 2011. hence the downgrade.

click image to enlarge:


ON December 3,2012 Stratasys announced the completed Merger of Objet Inc. 

This acquisition brought the number of shares outstanding to 41 million.
At $83 a share the company today has a market capitalization over $3.4 billion.

The problem is if you go to the Company's investor relations page   .
it states the company only has 21 million shares outstanding and  a $1.8 billion market cap. (40 days have passed since the share number has increased to 41.
This error also appears at Yahoo Finance and Morningstar. 

Motley Fool has published articles analyzing the stock using 21 million shares outstanding and not 41 million shares outstanding.

...and the Yahoo message boards have too many rumors to list about the company possibly being taken over by General Electric or Hewlett Packard.

The Annual CES Show  last week added hype to the fire as well. 

If these online financial websites have the wrong number of shares outstanding then it begs to ask the following questions:




  • I would think that with nearly twice as many shares outstanding that the EPS (Earning Per Share of $0.86 should probably need to be reduced (adjusted lower) or the PE multiple will need to be Ratched up.


  • Of course Objet numbers (earnings, if there are any) will need to be added to EPS  or subtracted).


  • The short interest % ratio should probably be looked at as well. if every other data point is adjusted I guess short interest is probably going to be lower %.


  • The daily volume of shares all of sudden is less in proportion to more shares outstanding as well. In other words, in November 600,000 share average volume was significant with only 21 million shares outstanding.


  • Today's 399,000 share volume means even less in the big picture with nearly twice as many shares outstanding.


  • volume this DRY at a top (all time high  (18 yr) was made last week @ $87) is referenced as a CROWDED TRADE.


  • this could end badly.


  • I think the Company SSYS is way overdue to Update their Investor Relations Website where they say there are only 21 million shares outstanding.


  • I know they use Morningstar numbers but that is no excuse for posting an erroneous number.


  • Its been nearly 40 days and their investor relation page still shows $1.8 billion mkt cap.


Objet was valued at $1,015,633,034 according to merger valuation in SEC filing. Objet owns 45% of new entity and the former SSYS retained 55%. (excluding options and insider positions and miscel.).
 not that important but original SSYS would be $1.2 billion value.
Now together 40 days later valuation is still over $3 billion

 My letter to the WSJ and BloombergAlthough WSJ & Bloomberg have the correct shares outstanding and mkt capitalization correct, neither of them Readjusted the EPS. THE EPS on these two sites needs to be adjusted down taking into account more shares. THe $0.86 EPS they state should be $0.46 and then they would also have to correct their PE multiples from 98 to 190 PE.
  • hi
             on your quote page for the ticker SSYS
 
you adjusted the shares outstanding correctly to 41 million up from 21 million.
 
but you did not adjust the eps down fro $0.86 to $0.47
 
and you would then need to change the PE from 99 to 190
 
Bloomberg page is wrong too in the same way.
 
meanwhile Morningstar, Yahoo FInance and SSYS's home page still show 21 million shares outstanding and the mkt cap they show is a mere $1.8 billion which should be $3.4 billion the way WSJ has it.
 
 
Someone need to fix all this ERRONEOUS DATA and let the world Know
 
small investors think their buying at a PE of 98 when they're buying at a PE of maybe 190, maybe even higher

WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE responds to my email : click here 

Learn About Importance of Operational Cash Flow:
CHANOS ON CASH FLOW @ HPQ (acquisitions to hide weak cash flow)

 

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