Showing posts with label Chanos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chanos. Show all posts

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Caterpillar Doesn't Generate Enough Free Cash Flow To Cover Dividend

Yesterday Jim Chanos announced his Short pick Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)

A look at the free cash flow for Caterpillar for the trailing twelve month ending March 31,2013:
Dividend Paid ttm ending 3/31/2013:  $1,329,000,000.00
Free Cash Flow ttm end 3/31/2013:   $1,171,000,000.00

FCF only generated 88% of dividend! 

click to see enlarged numbers







Equities Research

Chanos Archives:
Equities Research: Chanos Talks Cash Flow
Equities Research: Chanos Sees Cash Flow Declining at HPQ
Equities Research: A Gloomy View of China
Equities Research: Jim Chanos: Psychology of short selling; China ...


Tuesday, January 15, 2013

3 D Printer Stock Stratasys is Gonna Get Flattened

CLICK YouTube Video Created on January 14,2013 DDD & SSYS


To See a technical chart by Greg Harmon of DragonFly Capital,  click here:  

Click to Equities Research original post at my home page.  

After Reporting 2011 2nd quarter financials for the period ending June 30,2011, Stockdiagnostics upgraded SSYS from a 2 to 1 ranking (highest ranking) because the company reported it's 4th consecutive positive operational cash flow quarter. Shares have since climbed from $25 to over $80.

SSYS reported 2012 3rd quarter financials for the period ending September 30,2012 and the company reported Negative operational cash flow of -($9.6 million) a 262% decline vs. Q3 2011. hence the downgrade.


click image to enlarge:





  • ON December 3,2012 Stratasys announced the completed Merger of Objet Inc. 

    This acquisition brought the number of shares outstanding to 41 million.
    At $83 a share the company today has a market capitalization over $3.4 billion.

    The problem is if you go to the Company's investor relations page   .
    it states the company only has 21 million shares outstanding and  a $1.8 billion market cap. (40 days have passed since the share number has increased to 41.
    This error also appears at Yahoo Finance and Morningstar. 

    Motley Fool has published articles analyzing the stock using 21 million shares outstanding and not 41 million shares outstanding.

    ...and the Yahoo message boards have too many rumors to list about the company possibly being taken over by General Electric or Hewlett Packard.

    The Annual CES Show  last week added hype to the fire as well. 

    If these online financial websites have the wrong number of shares outstanding then it begs to ask the following questions:


    I would think that with nearly twice as many shares outstanding that the EPS (Earning Per Share of $0.86 should probably need to be reduced (adjusted lower) or the PE multiple will need to be Ratched up.

    Of course Objet numbers (earnings, if there are any) will need to be added to EPS  or subtracted).

    The short interest % ratio should probably be looked at as well. if every other data point is adjusted I guess short interest is probably going to be lower %.

    The daily volume of shares all of sudden is less in proportion to more shares outstanding as well. In other words, in November 600,000 share average volume was significant with only 21 million shares outstanding.

    Today's 399,000 share volume means even less in the big picture with nearly twice as many shares outstanding.

    volume this DRY at a top (all time high  (18 yr) was made last week @ $87) is referenced as a CROWDED TRADE.

    this could end badly.

    I think the Company SSYS is way overdue to Update their Investor Relations Website where they say there are only 21 million shares outstanding.

    I know they use Morningstar numbers but that is no excuse for posting an erroneous number.

    Its been nearly 40 days and their investor relation page still shows $1.8 billion mkt cap.


    Objet was valued at $1,015,633,034 according to merger valuation in SEC filing. Objet owns 45% of new entity and the former SSYS retained 55%. (excluding options and insider positions and miscel.).
     not that important but original SSYS would be $1.2 billion value.
    Now together 40 days later valuation is still over $3 billion

     My letter to the WSJ and BloombergAlthough WSJ & Bloomberg have the correct shares outstanding and mkt capitalization correct, neither of them Readjusted the EPS. THE EPS on these two sites needs to be adjusted down taking into account more shares. THe $0.86 EPS they state should be $0.46 and then they would also have to correct their PE multiples from 98 to 190 PE.
    hi
                 on your quote page for the ticker SSYS

    you adjusted the shares outstanding correctly to 41 million up from 21 million.

    but you did not adjust the eps down fro $0.86 to $0.47

    and you would then need to change the PE from 99 to 190

    Bloomberg page is wrong too in the same way.

    meanwhile Morningstar, Yahoo FInance and SSYS's home page still show 21 million shares outstanding and the mkt cap they show is a mere $1.8 billion which should be $3.4 billion the way WSJ has it.


    Someone need to fix all this ERRONEOUS DATA and let the world Know

    small investors think their buying at a PE of 98 when they're buying at a PE of maybe 190, maybe even higher

    WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE responds to my email : click here 

    Learn About Importance of Operational Cash Flow:

 

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Chanos Talks Cash Flow


A link to Lawrence C. Strauss interview with Jim Chanos in this week's Barron's. (the following paragraph is from the Barron's article.)
"So, in the past, value investors looked at declining free cash flows and put some discount rate on that. And then they got a value, and then they would say, "Gee, there is the possibility of a call-option value of the business inherent to all its other opportunities. So, if I can buy it at some discount to that present value, I'm in good shape." But we've seen time and time again where the cash flows do not gradually decline. Nor do managements seem very willing to pay out cash flows when they are in a declining business. They often use them to make acquisitions, trying to save the business on a Hail Mary basis. The advent of digitization in lots of businesses also means that the timing gets compressed, meaning that you need to move quickly or you are roadkill on the digital highway. That's true whether you look at companies like Eastman Kodak [ticker: EKDKQ], or Blockbuster, or the newspapers. Value investors have been drawn to these companies like moths to the flame, only to find out that the business has declined a lot faster than they thought and that the valuation cushion proved to be anything but." 




Below are Stockdiagnostics Cash Flow Charts from Equities Research 

Equities Research :  Stockdiagnostics Cash Flow Charts

Stockdiagnostics Downgrades of Stocks with declining Operational Cash Flows.

Stockdiagnostics Charts of Stocks filing Bankruptcy, including Eastman Kodak .

Equities Research remains Bearish these Stocks with Declining Operational Cash Flow:
 Titan Machinery , Automatics Data Processing, Apple Computer, Cubic Corporation, NetFlix, Big Lots,

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Chanos Sees Cash Flow Declining at HPQ

Today Jim Chanos came out on CNBC TV and highlighted to the world the declining Cash Flow at Hewlett-Packard.

Below are two charts of HPQ's quarterly operating cash flow statistics showing their recent declines.
click to HPQ Stockdiagnostics 20 quarter OPS chart
click to HPQ Stockdiagnostics 20 quarter FCF chart
click to HPQ Stockdiagnostics Long Term OPS & FCF Growth Tables


Chanos from CNBC transcript in video link:
"those acquisitions have enabled them to maintain a revenue base and see a declining cash flow base. those are maintenance capital expenditures or maintenance r & d hidden as acquisitions. and when you value the company, when you begin to look at the fact that this company has purchased its r & d, capitalized it, if you will, r & d is normally expensed, you begin to see a totally different picture. look at the middle of the left table which shows you that the free cash flow four buybacks and dividends, but after cap and acquisitions a much different animal and has turned negative. in addition, the balance sheet has been destroyed here. all right"


A look at today's morning posts at Equities Research with recent Stockdiagnostics Downgrades.


company
ticker
date
 Downgrade
$ Close
Time
% Return
HUSA
5/23/2011
$17.25
$1.06
14m
94%
FSLR
5/10/2011
$128.51
$14.46
14m
89%
TSTC
12/2/2010
$11.10
$1.71
18m
85%
SVU
1/192009
$13.32
$2.28
30m
83%
NOK
8/25/2011
$8.17
$1.69
15m
79%
SPWR
5/18/2011
$21.10
$4.42
14m
79%
STRI
5/10/2011
$16.35
$4.15
14m
75%
AIXG
3/7/2011
$42.31
$12.91
17m
70%
RIMM
9/26/2011
$21.68
$6.92
10m
68%
SCIL
3/16/2011
$3.00
$1.05
16m
65%
SNMX
5/16/2011
$5.92
$2.18
14m
63%
GrafTech International,Inc.
GTI
5/2/2011
$22.57
$8.88
4m
61%
ISNS
4/4/2011
$13.50
$5.25
16M
61%
SNE
8/24/2010
$28.07
$12.30
23m
56%
PMFG
5/24/2011
$18.00
$8.00
14m
56%
MT
5/16/2011
$31.92
$15.06
14m
53%
AA
4/25/2011
$16.67
$8.28
17m
50%
TIE
5/13/2011
$18.86
$11.09
14m
41%