13 out 15 February Newsletter Picks In the Money

Newsletter Picks UP 16% vs 10% S&P500 index  in 12 Weeks

February 22,2013 

Equities Research Newsletter (subscription)

 (blue is price as of May 15,2013 close)

Long Picks:
(click ticker to see Stockdiagnostics upgrade charts & history)

FLEX  $5.15     ($7.29)   up 42%
PAY     $18.24  ($23.00)  up 26%
YHOO  $20.83  ($27.34)  up 31%

CRAY  $18.94   ($17.36)  down 8%
ADES  $25.20     ($31.37) up 24%
WWWW  $16.84 ($20.13) up 20%
EGHT  $6.33      ($7.38) up17%
RHT   $51.71    ($54.16) up 5%
OSIS  $55.17    ($63.93) up16%
GM   $26.51    ($32.31) up 22%
DIS   $54.17    ($67.67) up 25%
HSY  $80.30    ($90.32) up13%

Warnings:
ADP  $59.85   ($71.74) minus17%
TITN  $28.67   ($22.96) up 25%
SSYS $67.35 

Disclaimer.
All Newsletters, published by Equities Research, LLC , does not constitute a recommendation by Equities Research, LLC to buy, sell, hold any security, or to follow any particular trading or investment strategy. Also, the information provided should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. An investor's best course of action must be based upon individual circumstances. EquitiesResearch.com shall not be liable for any damages or costs of any type arising out of or in any way connected with your use of The Newsletters, or any of our services.
EquitiesResearch.com, its officers and employees may buy and sell any position in the securities or companies mentioned herein.

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Yahoo Reaches 200 Million Active Mobile Users

A collection of Notes on Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) from :
The NY TIMES,  BARRON's,  Bloomberg,  SEC.GOV,  Thomson Reuters, Forbes, &
Global Financial News Network (GFNN)

In Barron's this morning ("A Shopping List for Call Buyers"), Steven M. Sears lists long term buying opportunities.  In the article Sears includes:   "A hot stock and call buying list compiled by Jim Strugger, MKM Partners' derivatives strategist." where names such as Hershey, McDonalds, Conoco Phillips, Microsoft and Yahoo among others are mentioned.

New York Times reported today that famed chief economist David A. Rosenberg is bullish on Yahoo!

• "He recommends playing the equity markets cautiously by seeking high-dividend-paying stocks of well-managed companies. At the moment, he says, those include Blackstone, the asset manager; Merck, the drug maker; and Yahoo, the Internet portal, among United States stocks."

Yahoo! reported year end financials for the FY2012 on Monday after the close.
Yahoo! Japan also reported this week as well.

BlackRock LLC. filed a 13 G reporting a 5.94% stake in Yahoo this week (70million shares)

On November 12,2012 Bloomberg reported famed Hedge Fund Manager David Einhorn purchased
 5 million shares of Yahoo 

Thomson Reuters reported after the close last night that Third Point LLC sold 11 milion shares on Thursday and Friday reducing it's position from 73 million to 62 million shares.

Forbes published a great article describing  the vision of  CEO Marissa Mayer


Shares of Yahoo closed the week @ $19.76.
Equities Research Stock Pick : YHOO @ $17.39 on November 7,2012 
Equities Research Archives YHOO 
Global Financial News Network (GFNN) archive

Below are 3 great video clips with Pimm Fox of Bloomberg TV  that aired last night interviewing Yahoo's Robby Stein and Bart Stein.

YAHOO! CASH FLOW UP 58%

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) generated over $2 billion in operational cash flow for the trailing twelve months ending September 30,2012, an increase of 58% vs. the comparable period ending September 30, 2011.

Operational Cash Flow
Sept. 2012 ttm : $2.049 billion (+58%)
Sept. 2011 ttm : $1.295 billion (+48%)
Sept. 2010 ttm :   $876 million

YAHOO MAKES HISTORY: $1 Billion Quarter

YAHOO Makes History: $1 Billion Operational Cash Quarter!

Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) generated $1 billion in operational cash flow in a quarter for the first time in the companies history!

• 3Q operational cash flow improves by $690 million vs. Q3 2011 

• Q3 2012 operational cash flow increases 193% vs Q3 2011  

Other Operational Cash Flow Increases and Decreases for the Quarter ending September 30,2012 vs. Quarter ending September 30,2011:

INCREASES
CRAY Inc.	(NASDAQ:CRAY)	248%
Yahoo	(NASDAQ:YHOO)	193%
ADE-Es, Inc	(NASDAQ:ADES)	126%
Akami Technology	(NASDAQ:AKAM)	21.60%
Cognizant Tech. Sol.	((NASDAQ:CTSH	17%
Ultimate Software	(NASDAQ:ULTI)	14%
Pfizer	(NYSE:PFE)	12.70%
DECREASES
Sketchers USA	(NYSE:SKX)	-415%
Stratasys, Inc.	(NASDAQ:SSYS)	-262%
Interactive Brokers	(NASDAQ:IBKR)	-219%
ACETO Corp	(NASDAQ:ACET)	-150%
Merck & Co.	(NYSE:MRK)	-31.42%
Deckers	(NASDAQ:DECK)	-32%
Elizabeth Arden	(NASDAQ:RDEN)	-26%
PDF Solutions	(NASDAQ:PDFS)	-22%
Home Depot*	(NYSE:HD)	-6.73%
Dunkin Brands	(NASDAQ:DNKN)	-6.22%
Jazz Pharmaceutical	(NASDAQ:JAZZ)	-4.15%
Johnson & Johnson	(NYSE:JNJ)	-3.29%
*period 10/28/2012 vs. 10/28/2011

 

Cash Flow in the News

• Bob Olstein : Earnings vs. Cash Flow 

• James Chanos Exams Cash Flow 

• Cramer talks Operational Cash Flow 

Warren Buffett on importance of Cash Flow:

• Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway: 2000 Annual Report:

 "Common yardsticks such as dividend yield, the ratio of price to earnings or to book value, and even growth rates have nothing to do with valuation except to the extent they provide clues to the amount and timing of cash flows into and from the business. Indeed, growth can destroy value if it requires cash inputs in the early years of a project or enterprise that exceed the discounted value of the cash that those assets will generate in later years.
Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to growth and value styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance, not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component--usually a plus, sometimes a minus-- in the value equation."

Follow Insiders At Under Armour and SELL

originally published at Equities Research

August 14,2012
Under Armour (NYSE: UA) traded less than 1 million shares for the second consecutive day and closed yesterday @ $56.42. Since the company reported 2nd quarter financials on July 24th the stock is 16.62% higher. Increasing its market capitalization by nearly $900 million to $5.89 Billion. (Under Armour traded at an all time high on August 7th @ $58.48.)

Under Armour is on my radar as a prime Short

• The company reported an increase in sales of $78 million while only adding a mere $427,000 in net income
• For 6 months 2012 the company increased sales by $149 million and only increased comprehensive net income by less than $900,000.
• The company has generated NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW for its trailing twelve months
• Operational Cash Flow for the prior 3 years (2009,2010,2011) has declined from $119 million to $50 million to $15million,respectively.
• Accounts Payable increased by $50 million vs. 1st Quarter
• Accrued Expenses increased by $19 million vs. 1st Quarter
• Total Liabilities (all current) increased by $69 million vs. the 1st Quarter
• Stockholders Equity increased by only $15 million vs. the 1st Quarter

Read : "Under Armour Special Effects" to learn more.

• The dilemma that Under Armour faces is that it only has $143 million in cash. That is not enough to pay off its Accounts Payable of $146 million and its current portion due of $42 million of its long term debt that was moved to its Current Liabilities section of its Balance Sheet in its first quarter ended March 31, 2012.

Below is a table from Yahoo finance showing daily volume with stock prices since company reported 2nd quarter financials on July 24th.

Prices

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close* Aug 14, 2012 57.18 57.23 56.24 56.42 888,000 56.42 Aug 13, 2012 56.72 57.00 55.82 56.88 741,600 56.88 Aug 10, 2012 56.96 57.60 56.21 56.76 1,190,600 56.76 Aug 9, 2012 56.84 57.80 56.72 57.35 1,008,100 57.35 Aug 8, 2012 56.40 57.22 56.27 56.69 1,124,400 56.69 Aug 7, 2012 57.97 58.48 56.57 56.75 2,105,200 56.75 Aug 6, 2012 56.10 57.73 55.92 57.67 2,311,800 57.67 Aug 3, 2012 55.11 56.40 54.99 56.11 1,683,900 56.11 Aug 2, 2012 53.39 54.79 53.02 54.11 1,432,800 54.11 Aug 1, 2012 54.94 55.10 53.50 53.50 1,634,400 53.50 Jul 31, 2012 54.99 55.20 53.94 54.44 1,551,800 54.44 Jul 30, 2012 55.18 55.90 54.75 55.41 1,478,200 55.41 Jul 27, 2012 55.48 55.99 54.74 55.14 2,080,600 55.14 Jul 26, 2012 54.88 55.95 54.74 55.31 2,366,700 55.31 Jul 25, 2012 53.02 54.61 52.83 53.92 3,349,600 53.92 Jul 24, 2012 51.70 55.00 51.70 52.79 10,197,100 52.79 Jul 23, 2012 48.59 49.29 47.33 48.38 2,906,900 48.38

Use the below headlines from Dow Jones, Edgar Online, Flyonthewall and Knobias to see Insider Activity.

08/14/2012 22:54 ET	DJ CFO DICKERSON Registers 5,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/14/2012 17:11 ET	UA: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
08/14/2012 17:11 ET	DJ CFO DICKERSON Sells 5,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/14/2012 16:19 ET	UA: Filed New Form 8-K, Material Event Disclosure - Edgar
08/10/2012 22:40 ET	DJ Holder CUPID FOUNDATION Registers 30,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/10/2012 22:39 ET	DJ Holder JSP 2009 GRAT Registers 38,964 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/10/2012 22:38 ET	DJ VP PLANK Registers 125,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/10/2012 22:38 ET	DJ Holder JSDM FAMILY LLC Registers 25,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/10/2012 22:37 ET	DJ Chmn PLANK Registers 240,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/10/2012 22:35 ET	DJ Holder JS PLANK & DM DICARLO FOUNDATION Registers 12,500 Of UNDER ARMOUR >UA - Dow Jones
08/10/2012 22:35 ET	DJ Holder KD PLANK LLC Registers 15,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/09/2012 10:34 ET	DJ MARKET TALK: Under Armour's Footwear Showing Strong Stride - Dow Jones
08/08/2012 22:33 ET	DJ Holder KD PLANK II LLC Registers 15,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/07/2012 18:38 ET	DJ VP PLANK Sells 83,082 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/07/2012 18:36 ET	UA: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
08/06/2012 06:03 ET	UA: Filed New Form 10-Q, Quarterly Report - Edgar
08/02/2012 20:22 ET	DJ Chmn PLANK Sells 38,178 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/02/2012 20:20 ET	UA: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
08/02/2012 19:38 ET	DJ VP PLANK Sells 105,882 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/02/2012 19:36 ET	UA: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
08/02/2012 19:34 ET	DJ Chmn PLANK Sells 231,822 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
08/02/2012 19:31 ET	UA: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
08/02/2012 12:25 ET	BofA/Merrill's global retail team holds an analyst/industry conference call - theflyonthewall.com
08/02/2012 05:55 ET	BofA/Merrill's global retail team holds an analyst/industry conference call - theflyonthewall.com
07/31/2012 22:52 ET	DJ VP MIRCHIN Registers 15,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
07/31/2012 15:45 ET	*DJ Under Armour (UA) Mkt On Close Buy Imbalance: Shrs 88800 - Dow Jones
07/31/2012 09:48 ET	BofA/Merrill's global retail team holds an analyst/industry conference call - theflyonthewall.com
07/30/2012 15:21 ET	Under Armour's Special Effects - Knobias
07/27/2012 17:11 ET	DJ VP MIRCHIN Sells 15,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
07/27/2012 17:11 ET	UA: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
07/27/2012 17:06 ET	UA: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
07/27/2012 17:06 ET	DJ Dir COLTHARP Sells 15,000 Of UNDER ARMOUR INC >UA - Dow Jones
07/25/2012 08:01 ET	Under Armour's 2H athletic outlook looks solid, says UBS - theflyonthewall.com
07/24/2012 18:13 ET	DJ US HOT STOCKS: MetroPCS, Ryder, Sanmina-SCI, Under Armour -2- - Dow Jones
07/24/2012 16:14 ET	Stocks Ende Lower But Cut Losses Late After Fed Says Action May Be Coming Soon - Knobias
07/24/2012 16:00 ET	Knobias Sector Commentary - Knobias
07/24/2012 15:54 ET	Under Armour Uses Special Effects to Puff UP its Financial Performance and Share Price - Knobias

-----Tom Renna , Equities Research LLC. , tom@equitiesresearch.com ,908-477-4796