Thursday, December 31, 2015

2015 Saw the Return of : Wall Street Week





"Markets are UNPREDICTABLE. There is time to take more risk and time to take less risk" ---Jim Chanos, Kynikos Associates

Interview on C-SPAN with Host of Wall Street Week Louis Rukeyser 








Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Home Capital Group (Bull vs Bear)

Equities Research (BEARISH: HCG)


Bull:

BNN - Watch TV Online | Jason Donville - Part Two

Bear:

BNN - Watch TV Online | Andy Nasr - Part Six

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Kickstarter and Indiegogo Are Diverging on Equity Crowdfnvesting - The Atlantic

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/12/crowdfunding-equity-kickstarter-indiegogo/421473/

"Indiegogo’s founder and CEO, of the new SEC rules, adding “[It] is really a huge win for America and is really a great opportunity for everyone to get involved with funding their neighbors or some great new idea that they want to see come to life.”

New York Times 

December 23,2015

When a Unicorn Start-Up Stumbles, Its Employees Get Hurt

"It’s not unusual for employees to be wiped out while venture capitalists make money,” said Dennis J. White, a partner in Boston at the law firm Verrill Dana, who has studied deals like Good’s."

Friday, December 18, 2015

Linkedin Interviews Roddy Boyd

Katrina Brooker, Senior Editor at Linkedin interview of Roddy Boyd.

December 17,2015

This financial fraud reporter says he’s the last of his kind. Should the rest of us be worried?


I have made some great calls in my 26 year career and have received testimonials and compliments from across the world, but the greatest compliment I every received came from Roddy Boyd.
I post his tweet on my website (and people ask me , who is Roddy Boyd?

From time to time I'm asked about analysts, diggers whose work I really respect, who do things well. Tom Renna, is a must follow
— Roddy Boyd  September 7, 2013



Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Equities Research on Feedly

Equities Research on Feedly

The Irrelevant Investor Looks At Ten Baggers

The Irrelevant Investor 
PCLN,REGN,NFLX,ALXN,MNST,CF,SWKS,GMCR,AMZN,AAPL
"These stocks spent on average 34% of the time in “bear market territory.” That’s pretty wild. One out of every three days these stocks were at least 20% off their all-time high"- Michael Batnick

"One of the common themes among the very best performing stocks is that they are attached to a high price-to-earnings ratio. It makes sense that the fastest growing companies deserve a higher multiple than the average stock. " - Michael Batnick

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Titan Machinery: New 6 Year Low and Conditions are Getting Worse

TITAN MACHINERY (NASDAQ:  TITN  $9.18 ) Friday traded at a 6 Year intra day low of $8.92. All time low for TITN is $7.50 set in March 2009.

  • 21.5 million shares outstanding
  • $200 million market Capitalization
  • Revenue for 9 months ending October 31,2015 : $1 Billion 
  • Net Income for 9 months ending October 31,2015 : neg -($2.8 million)
DECEMBER 2015 10Q states: 
" a one percentage point decrease in interest rates for the next 12-month period would result in an increase to pre-tax earnings and cash flow of approximately $3.3 million"

TradeCard TITN can be found at CMLVIZ




On December 13,2015 Motley Fool published the following article by author Lee Samaha:

"It's getting worseTitan's third-quarter 2016 revenue came in significantly below analyst estimates, with revenue declining 30% and equipment sales down a whopping 37%. Moreover, its updated full-year guidance reflected a weakening in its end markets"






My Comment to the Motley Fool Article:
Tom Renna
great work. I also thought it was interesting that Meyer said on conference call that Titan would not be profitable for FY2016 which ends January 31,2016. On September conference call he said they would be profitable for year.

To your point that revenue for Q3 missed analyst estimates, to put a number to that: Analyst estimates called for $416 million in revenue and company came in at $344 million. A $72 million miss (or -17%).

Prior to the Q3 call on december 3,2015, all 7 analysts estimated FY2016 to be profitable with significantly higher revenue estimates. I am curious how much longer it will take for analyst to update their research and estimates for FY2016.

Analyst Feltl estimates still read FY2016 net income estimates of $0.26 EPS, that would be $5.6 million net income. And as mentioned in call, Meyer says there will be NO PROFIT.

Not sure if you noticed this spin by management.
SEE ABOVE CHARTS From FY2016 Q3 and FY2015 Q3 and note CONSTRUCTION REVENUE

In the FY2015 Q3 10Q Titan showed Construction sales of $110m Up from $109m in FY14 Q3 and touted the Q3 improvement vs. Fy 2014 Q3 on December 2014 call.  

In the FY2016 Q3 10Q reported this week the $110 million in construction revenue in the Fy2015 Q3 has now been changed to $98m in FY2016 Q3 10Q.

So on the call and on the investor relations slide presentation they show Construction being lower by 11% using the $98 million revenue figure.
But if TITAN used the $110 million construction revenue number that appears in FY2015 Q3 10Q then Construction Revenue actually declined 21%.

Your point about the service profit margins is perfect. If sales of rental, parts and equipment weren't so horrible, the profit margins would have shrunk for the overall business.

CLIFF NOTES: $35 to $9 

December 5,2015 News Break from FlyOntheWall

09:53 EDTCAT, TITN, DE, CNHI, AGCOTitan Machinery inventory cut negative for CNH Industrial, says Wells Fargo
Titan Machinery's (TITN) inventory reduction forecast this morning appears negative for CNH Industrial (CNHI), said Wells Fargo, noting that Titan is a large CNH distributor. Titan's results and cautious outlook also have a negative read through for AGCO (AGCO), Deere (DE), and Caterpillar (CAT), according to the firm.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Yer Blues John Lennon - Eric Clapton

John Lennon died December 8,1980 35 years ago today. I was a sophomore in High school doing my homework and my brother Joe came into room to tell me.

Sunday, December 6, 2015

New York Times calls for end to “gun epidemic”

On Saturday December 5,2015 The New York Times ran an editorial on its From Page for the first time in 95 years. END THE GUN EPIDEMIC IN AMERICA



Two of  the most popular Gun Stocks in the market are Smith & Wesson (SWHC : $18.99) and Sturm Ruger & Co (RGR: $54.32).
Both are valued at $1 Billion Market Capitalizations.

SWHC on August 17,1999 traded at $1.06 

RGR  on March 26,1990 traded at $2.06 

TradeCards from CMLVIZ (Capital Market Laboratories)




Friday, December 4, 2015

Titan Machinery Trading Near Multi Year Low

A letter to readers.

Good morning,
yesterday Titan reported FY2016 Q3

How much is Titan Machinery worth?

Titan has a Market cap over $200 million.

The company for 9 months ending Oct 31,2015 
Sales were $1 Billion and net income was $1.2 million

Not a very good business model and in my opinion a company that is worth less than $100 million. (under $5)

Cash declined from January 31,2015 to October 31,2015 from $127 million to $78 million.

Sales for 9 months fell compared to 9 months a year ago from $1.4 Billion to $1 Billion

In 9 months FY 2015 when the company reported $1.4 billion in sales, net income for those 9months was $2.2 million.

titan still has not filed their 10Q

any questions or comments are welcomed.



Thursday, December 3, 2015

TITAN Reports Q3 , Misses on Revenue and EPS; Lowers Guidance

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) reported FY2016 3rd quarter financials this morning.

$TITN Reports Q3 Revenue $344 Million , Misses $416 Milllion Revenue Estimates by $72 Million -17%







Tuesday, December 1, 2015

What to Look For: Titan Reports Q3 Thursday Pre Market

Equities Research Bearish Titan Machinery 

As of July 31,2015 Titan Machinery had current liabilities of $692 million. The company's cash position declined from January 31,2015 to July 31,2015 from $127 million to $95 million.
Bonds (2019) on Friday traded at an all time low of $63.61 w 18.56% yield.

trailing ttm total gross profit $275m ($69m/qtr), total SG&A $246m ($62m/qtr), total Interest Exp $34m ($8.5/qtr)

The best Fundamental tool to research stocks in all of Wall Street is the CMLVIZ trade card from Capital Market Laboratories. (founder Ophir Gottlieb)

Titan Machinery Trade Card can be found here with complete fundamental and technical analysis.

Keep in Mind as you look at the Below charts that Titan has a $12.28 per share stock price and a $265 Market Capitalization. How much would you be willing to pay for this entire business model?


Revenue Trailing Twelve Months, 1-Year Growth % & EPS Net trailing twelve months






TheStreetSweeper - Zagg Glass Screen Protector Company Shattering Under Pressure

TheStreetSweeper - Zagg Glass Screen Protector Company Shattering Under Pressure

Jim Cramer Sees Stock Market Falling Further When Rates Rise

Jim Cramer founded TheStreet (TST : $1.71) 19 years ago.

The Clip below from November, Cramer says stay away from China Markets and Invest in USA stocks.

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Titan Machinery Convertible Notes Close at NEW ALL TIME LOW

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN: $12.58) reports FY2016 3rd quarter financials on Thursday premarket for the period ending October 31,2015.
(Market capitalization $265 million, PE 160, Debt to EBITDA Ratio 25, Sales -25%, Net Income ttm -$31 million))

A year ago the company reported FY2015 3rd quarter net income of $2.4 million.

In their most recent 10Q filing for FY2016 for the period ending July 31,2015 the company reported net income of $6,000.

BOND $63.61 yield 18.56%

This week the $150 million 3.75% (May 2019 maturity) convertible indenture with Wells Fargo closed a New All Time Low of $63.61 yielding 18.56%.




Bond Risks: Danger of Defaulting on Credit Agreement's 6th Amendment.

Cliff Notes to Equities Research Bear Case



Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Titan Needs Q3 Net Income to Increase 180% To Stay Compliant With Terms of Wells Fargo Bond

Pressure is on Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN $12.31) to report a stellar 3rd quarter financial report for the period ending October 31,2015.

Titan Machinery was on the brink of going out of business in April 2012 when Wells Fargo loaned the company $150 million  (3.75% May 1,2019 maturity) save the day.

Indenture

  • The Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of April 24, 2012 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as trustee.

    The Notes are general unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the Company, and interest will be payable semiannually at a rate of 3.75% per annum. The Notes mature on May 1, 2019, unless earlier converted, redeemed or purchased by the Company in accordance with their terms. The Notes will be convertible at the option of the holders of the Notes under certain conditions described below. Upon conversion, the Company will pay cash up to the aggregate principal amount of converted notes and pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, shares of Company common stock or a combination thereof, at the Company’s election, for any conversion obligation in excess thereof, subject to certain limitations described below.  The initial conversion rate for the Notes is 23.1626 shares of Company common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes, and is subject to certain adjustments as set forth in the Indenture.


On March 9,2015 shares of TITN were halted when the company pronounced  FY2015 numbers and Titan Chairman David Meyer announced earlier this year that the company was non-compliant with the terms of a Wells Fargo covenant on January 31,2015. Titan's corporate bond was at a low of $66.50 with a 14.88% yield.

Suspicious Trading on March 9,2015 during the day. The overall market was up that day and Titan shares traded down 6%. After the close is when the Company pronounced the FY2015 year end warning and announced store closings. I am thinking inside information was leaked to someone who capitalized on the privileged news.

According to the footnotes in the 10K filed on April 15,2015, on April 10,2015 Wells Fargo made a 6th Amendment (4th in 12 months) amending the Bond covenants and revised the terms of the January 31,2015 violation so that Titan would be compliant. Bonds gained 21% by May 17,2015 closing at $80.

Terms of the 6th Amendment states Titan Machinery needs to earn $1 million in net income for the 9 months of FY2016 ending October 31,2015. For the first six months of FY2016 ending July 31,2015, Titan has already reported a loss of -($5.7 million).
TITAN Q3 report is due out anytime within the next three weeks and the company will have to earn a minimum of $6.7 million net income just for the 3rd Quarter alone or else they will be NON-Compliant with the net income covenant terms of the Bond!

A year ago the company reported 3rd quarter net income of $2.4 million. Titan will need to report a net income increase for their most recent Q3, 180% higher than a year ago Q3.

This morning John Deere announce their most recent quarter and NET INCOME declined 46%.

Equities Research Remains Bearish Titan Machinery.

Titan has a $265 million market capitalization @ $12.50.

In an SEC filing On May 7, 2015 the founder of Titan Machinery was not on the ballot for re-election to the board of directors for the June shareholder meeting. No formal announcement or 8K filing was filed announcing his plans to step down from the board. I found out simply by seeing his name was not on the ballot.

On May 11,2015 the founder announced he was resigning as president. 

3 of 8 Titan directors have resigned since May.

 October 28,2015 8K Credit Agreement Amendment 

Exhibit 10.1 of 8k  the term "Bankruptcy" appears 15 times


Sunday, November 22, 2015

Jim Cramer Says Google’s Stock Is Heading to $800 a Share



Cramer Bullish : GOOGLE (GOOG), Sketchers (SKX), Walgreens, AT and T (T), Intel (INTC), AGN

JIM CRAMER recently filed a Form 4 with Securities and Exchange Commission to report he has added to his position the THESTREET (TST) where he is the founder and a director.
Shares of the TheStreet have gained 10% since his purchase on November 6,2015.



FOLLOW THESTREETTV AT TWITTER



Thursday, November 19, 2015

Analyst Feltl Estimates Titan Machinery Will Earn $20 Million in FY2017. $0.94 EPS

This May Explain the Laughable $260 Million Market Capitalization

(note FY2017 ends January 31,2017)

The only analyst covering Titan Machinery with a STRONG BUY is Feltl & Co. a local Minnesota firm in the back yard of Titan Machinery that has a 12 month price target of $20.50. Minnesota is also the location of Titan's investment banker,  Cherry Tree & Associates, which is owned by Titan Director Tony Christiansen who is the brother of Titan co founder Peter Christensen who recently elected to resign as a director of the company and stepped down as president. (He will continue to earn $500,000 a year for next several  years as an outside consultant to the firm as part of his severance agreement.)


In May when Titan Machinery pre announced 1st quarter financials for the period ending April 30,2015 the company held a conference call. Five analysts were on the call participating in the Q&A except for the firm Feltl.   The following morning Feltl issued a research summary with FY2016 Estimated EPS of $0.36.

In October, Feltl changed their FY 2016 Estimated EPS to $0.26 but more importantly they increased their FY2017 EPS estimate to $0.94. (based on 21,573,553 shares outstanding).

FELTL ESTIMATES THAT TITAN MACHINERY WILL EARN OVER $20 MILLION NET INCOME in FY2017


FY2013 $2.19 Billion Revenue w $42.4 Million Net Income

FY2014 $2.22 Billion Revenue w $8.8 Million Net Income
FY2015 $1.90 Billion Revenue w -($32.1 Million) Net Income.

est FY 2016 $1.59 Billion Revenue w $5.6 million net income 

est FY 2017 $1.66 Billion Revenue w $20 Million net income

For FY 2016 1st 6 months Actual Revenue $687 million w -($6 million) net income


For Feltl FY2016 full year estimates to come in the company will need to report a combined $900 million in revenue for Q3 & Q4 and earn $11 million in the same combined Q3 & Q4 period.



Equities Research remains Bearish TITAN

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Cliff Notes: Titan Machinery Foot Prints


Since my coverage began on Titan Machinery I have reported so many bizarre events that it is difficult for new followers to bring it all together so I have created this post to shed some light on the concept of my bear case. (there's plenty more to read, note these are just highlights)





  • President's brother is UnderWriter My April 2013 report laying out the most detailed landscape of all the characters and how the house of cards was built. (my most viewed  report ever)

































A Short  Video to listen to while you read or work on something else.



Bear Warnings on FloTek (TheStreetSweeper and Bronte Capital)

Bronte Capital Blog (John Hempton) November 11,2015


Video Raises Doubts over Flotek's Most Recent Statements




TheStreetSweeper September 2015 Warning


More Insider Buying at TheStreet Moves stock Up 14% in 5 days

Since Wednesday of last Week TheStreet (TST) has moved up 14% closing at $1.64 up from a $1.44 5 days ago. The stock has traded over 700,000 shares over this period which is well above its average weekly volume over the last 3 months of 44,000.
(Shares made a 52 week intraday low of $1.40 on Wednesday).

The company reported a 3rd Quarter Profit on Wednesday after the close and 3 directors have bought shares in the company over the last 4 days.
James Cramer added 100.000 shares to his position and new director Larry Kramer has filed two Form 4's initiating a position of 28,450 shares. A 3rd Director Stephen Zacharias initiated filed a SEC Form 4 last night initiating a position  of 35,000 shares.


Equities Research continues to Be Bullish THESTREET

TheStreet current market capitalization is $55 million.
Subtracting the $34 million cash (and marketable securities) the underlying business is valued at $21 million. 
TheStreet reported a 3rd Quarter profit last week for the period ending September 30,2015.
FY2015 the company is expected to generate $68 million in revenue up from $61 million in FY2014.

Brokerage Firm B. Riley has Buy rating on the stock with a $3.75 price target.


November 4,2015 


Alert: TheStreet Reports Q3 Profit


October 5,2015

RateWatch was Acquired by TheStreet in 2007 for $25 Million


October 2,2015 


September 29,2015 

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Insider Buying: Founder Jim Cramer Buys 100,000 Shares TheStreet (TST)

Yesterday after the close two directors of TheStreet (NASDAQ: TST $1.57 yield 5.65% ) filed a Form 4.
Founder James Cramer added 100,000 shares of TheStreet to bring his total to over 2.6 million shares.
Cramer is the host of the Mad Money television program on CNBC and is also a co host of CNBC Squawk program, a Live market news show. Cramer also is a contributor to TheStreet as a commentator and is featured on TheStreet online video programs.

Another Director Larry Kramer also filed a Form to report his $10,000 investment in TST.  Larry Kramer (a new Director to the TheStreet)  was the founder of MarketWatch, an online financial  news company similar to TheStreet that was was acquired by CBS for $519 million and is now owned by Dow Jones.  

Equities Research continues to maintain a Strong Buy on TheStreet (TST).

TheStreet current market capitalization is $55 million.
Subtracting the $34 million cash (and marketable securities) the underlying business is valued at $21 million. 
TheStreet reported a 3rd Quarter profit last week for the period ending September 30,2015.
FY2015 the company is expected to generate $68 million in revenue up from $61 million in FY2014.

Brokerage Firm B. Riley has Buy rating on the stock with a $3.75 price target.

November 4,2015 

Alert: TheStreet Reports Q3 Profit


October 5,2015

RateWatch was Acquired by TheStreet in 2007 for $25 Million


October 2,2015 


September 29,2015 

Monday, November 9, 2015

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Student Debt (HBO)

For Profit Institutions that trade Publicly. Avoid these Stocks.
Devry (DV)
ITT (ESI)
Apollo (APOL)
Education Management(EDMC)

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Alert: TheStreet Reports Q3 Profit

After the close , TheStreet (NASDAQ: TST $1.44) reported 3rd quarter profit for the period ending September 30,2015.
TheStreet was expected to report a Q3 loss of ($0.03).

The stock average daily volume over the last 3 months was 34.000, today the stock traded above average volume of 349,000.
The stock has been trading at a 52 week low over the last several weeks. The stock pays a $0.10 a share dividend paid quarterly. At current levels the shares are yielding 6.9%.

Equities Research continues to rate TheStreet TST a Strong Buy.

34 million shares outstanding with $1.44 share price, the total market capitalization is $50 million.
TheStreet has zero debt and Subtracting the $30 million cash from the  $50 million market capitalization, the entire underlying business is currently being valued at $20 million.

Analyst at B. Reilly has a price target of $4.00 on  the shares as of this morning.

NOTES FROM 8K filed after the close: 


TheStreet (TST): Q3 2015 Revenue Increases 14%

Third quarter revenue of $16.7 million, up 14% year-over-year.
GAAP Net Income of $0.4 million, representing EPS of $0.01 versus a loss of $0.5 million, representing EPS of ($0.02) year-over-year.
Subscription Revenue of $13.7 million, up 17% year-over-year.
Media Revenue of $3.0 million, up 2% year-over-year.
Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities of $30.3 million.
Confirms full-year revenue guidance: $68 to $69 million.
Confirms full-year Adjusted EBITDA(1) guidance: $2.8 to $3.2 million.

Friday, October 2, 2015

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

TITN | Stock Price Chart for Titan Machinery Inc

TITN | Stock Price Chart for Titan Machinery Inc


This Roll Up Story is ending.









Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Free Cash Flow Investing

Long Pick Starbucks New All Time High $63.43

Equities Research Newsletter Long Pick Starbucks @ $12.67 (adjusted for dividends and splits) on September 21,2007 has gained 400% vs. 35% for the Standard & Poors 500 Index over the same 8 year period.


August 20,2014 CRAMER BULLISH ON STARBUCKS
Starbucks Up 65% since Cramer Reiterated his StarBucks Buy in Aug 2014 @ $38.48 vs 4.3% gain on S&P500 Index 


Sunday, October 25, 2015

Monday, October 19, 2015

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for TITN (Titan Machinery)

$900m liabilities, Cash declining $127m in Jan to $95m in July. Sales falling -25%, $30m in losses, Why PE 160. No Growth. No Value



Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for TITN



Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Long Pick Hershey Up 8% in 4 months in Down Market

July 1, 2015 Equities Research pick Hershey (NYSE: HSY $95.28) is up $7 for an 8% gain (adjusted for dividend).
Over the same 15 week period , The Dow Jones Industrial Average has loss 2.3% falling from 17,819 to 17,215 (604 points lower), while the S&P 500 Index has loss 30 points declining from 2063 to 2033, a -1.5% drop.

Daily and weekly charts with Fibs.
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Richard Suttmeier
CEO / Founder
Global Market Consultants, Ltd.
813-929-9702
813-777-3529 - Cell



Morningstar Assigns “A+” Credit Rating to Hershey

Hershey will report FY2015 Q3 financials pre market on 

Wednesday October 28,2015.


The Hershey Company (HSY) Trade Card™ from Capital Market Laboratories 


Tuesday, April 14, 2015