Founder of Equities Research. Stockdiagnostics Specialist

Founder of Equities Research. Stockdiagnostics Specialist
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Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Titan Needs Q3 Net Income to Increase 180% To Stay Compliant With Terms of Wells Fargo Bond

Pressure is on Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN $12.31) to report a stellar 3rd quarter financial report for the period ending October 31,2015.

Titan Machinery was on the brink of going out of business in April 2012 when Wells Fargo loaned the company $150 million  (3.75% May 1,2019 maturity) save the day.


  • The Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of April 24, 2012 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as trustee.

    The Notes are general unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the Company, and interest will be payable semiannually at a rate of 3.75% per annum. The Notes mature on May 1, 2019, unless earlier converted, redeemed or purchased by the Company in accordance with their terms. The Notes will be convertible at the option of the holders of the Notes under certain conditions described below. Upon conversion, the Company will pay cash up to the aggregate principal amount of converted notes and pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, shares of Company common stock or a combination thereof, at the Company’s election, for any conversion obligation in excess thereof, subject to certain limitations described below.  The initial conversion rate for the Notes is 23.1626 shares of Company common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes, and is subject to certain adjustments as set forth in the Indenture.

On March 9,2015 shares of TITN were halted when the company pronounced  FY2015 numbers and Titan Chairman David Meyer announced earlier this year that the company was non-compliant with the terms of a Wells Fargo covenant on January 31,2015. Titan's corporate bond was at a low of $66.50 with a 14.88% yield.

Suspicious Trading on March 9,2015 during the day. The overall market was up that day and Titan shares traded down 6%. After the close is when the Company pronounced the FY2015 year end warning and announced store closings. I am thinking inside information was leaked to someone who capitalized on the privileged news.

According to the footnotes in the 10K filed on April 15,2015, on April 10,2015 Wells Fargo made a 6th Amendment (4th in 12 months) amending the Bond covenants and revised the terms of the January 31,2015 violation so that Titan would be compliant. Bonds gained 21% by May 17,2015 closing at $80.

Terms of the 6th Amendment states Titan Machinery needs to earn $1 million in net income for the 9 months of FY2016 ending October 31,2015. For the first six months of FY2016 ending July 31,2015, Titan has already reported a loss of -($5.7 million).
TITAN Q3 report is due out anytime within the next three weeks and the company will have to earn a minimum of $6.7 million net income just for the 3rd Quarter alone or else they will be NON-Compliant with the net income covenant terms of the Bond!

A year ago the company reported 3rd quarter net income of $2.4 million. Titan will need to report a net income increase for their most recent Q3, 180% higher than a year ago Q3.

This morning John Deere announce their most recent quarter and NET INCOME declined 46%.

Equities Research Remains Bearish Titan Machinery.

Titan has a $265 million market capitalization @ $12.50.

In an SEC filing On May 7, 2015 the founder of Titan Machinery was not on the ballot for re-election to the board of directors for the June shareholder meeting. No formal announcement or 8K filing was filed announcing his plans to step down from the board. I found out simply by seeing his name was not on the ballot.

On May 11,2015 the founder announced he was resigning as president. 

3 of 8 Titan directors have resigned since May.

 October 28,2015 8K Credit Agreement Amendment 

Exhibit 10.1 of 8k  the term "Bankruptcy" appears 15 times

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Jim Cramer Says Google’s Stock Is Heading to $800 a Share

Cramer Bullish : GOOGLE (GOOG), Sketchers (SKX), Walgreens, AT and T (T), Intel (INTC), AGN

JIM CRAMER recently filed a Form 4 with Securities and Exchange Commission to report he has added to his position the THESTREET (TST) where he is the founder and a director.
Shares of the TheStreet have gained 10% since his purchase on November 6,2015.


Thursday, November 19, 2015

Analyst Feltl Estimates Titan Machinery Will Earn $20 Million in FY2017. $0.94 EPS

This May Explain the Laughable $260 Million Market Capitalization

(note FY2017 ends January 31,2017)

The only analyst covering Titan Machinery with a STRONG BUY is Feltl & Co. a local Minnesota firm in the back yard of Titan Machinery that has a 12 month price target of $20.50. Minnesota is also the location of Titan's investment banker,  Cherry Tree & Associates, which is owned by Titan Director Tony Christiansen who is the brother of Titan co founder Peter Christensen who recently elected to resign as a director of the company and stepped down as president. (He will continue to earn $500,000 a year for next several  years as an outside consultant to the firm as part of his severance agreement.)

In May when Titan Machinery pre announced 1st quarter financials for the period ending April 30,2015 the company held a conference call. Five analysts were on the call participating in the Q&A except for the firm Feltl.   The following morning Feltl issued a research summary with FY2016 Estimated EPS of $0.36.

In October, Feltl changed their FY 2016 Estimated EPS to $0.26 but more importantly they increased their FY2017 EPS estimate to $0.94. (based on 21,573,553 shares outstanding).


FY2013 $2.19 Billion Revenue w $42.4 Million Net Income

FY2014 $2.22 Billion Revenue w $8.8 Million Net Income
FY2015 $1.90 Billion Revenue w -($32.1 Million) Net Income.

est FY 2016 $1.59 Billion Revenue w $5.6 million net income 

est FY 2017 $1.66 Billion Revenue w $20 Million net income

For FY 2016 1st 6 months Actual Revenue $687 million w -($6 million) net income

For Feltl FY2016 full year estimates to come in the company will need to report a combined $900 million in revenue for Q3 & Q4 and earn $11 million in the same combined Q3 & Q4 period.

Equities Research remains Bearish TITAN

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Cliff Notes: Titan Machinery Foot Prints

Since my coverage began on Titan Machinery I have reported so many bizarre events that it is difficult for new followers to bring it all together so I have created this post to shed some light on the concept of my bear case. (there's plenty more to read, note these are just highlights)

  • President's brother is UnderWriter My April 2013 report laying out the most detailed landscape of all the characters and how the house of cards was built. (my most viewed  report ever)

A Short  Video to listen to while you read or work on something else.

Bear Warnings on FloTek (TheStreetSweeper and Bronte Capital)

Bronte Capital Blog (John Hempton) November 11,2015

Video Raises Doubts over Flotek's Most Recent Statements

TheStreetSweeper September 2015 Warning

More Insider Buying at TheStreet Moves stock Up 14% in 5 days

Since Wednesday of last Week TheStreet (TST) has moved up 14% closing at $1.64 up from a $1.44 5 days ago. The stock has traded over 700,000 shares over this period which is well above its average weekly volume over the last 3 months of 44,000.
(Shares made a 52 week intraday low of $1.40 on Wednesday).

The company reported a 3rd Quarter Profit on Wednesday after the close and 3 directors have bought shares in the company over the last 4 days.
James Cramer added 100.000 shares to his position and new director Larry Kramer has filed two Form 4's initiating a position of 28,450 shares. A 3rd Director Stephen Zacharias initiated filed a SEC Form 4 last night initiating a position  of 35,000 shares.

Equities Research continues to Be Bullish THESTREET

TheStreet current market capitalization is $55 million.
Subtracting the $34 million cash (and marketable securities) the underlying business is valued at $21 million. 
TheStreet reported a 3rd Quarter profit last week for the period ending September 30,2015.
FY2015 the company is expected to generate $68 million in revenue up from $61 million in FY2014.

Brokerage Firm B. Riley has Buy rating on the stock with a $3.75 price target.

November 4,2015 

Alert: TheStreet Reports Q3 Profit

October 5,2015

RateWatch was Acquired by TheStreet in 2007 for $25 Million

October 2,2015 

September 29,2015