Thursday, August 31, 2017

Titan Machinery Reverses FY2018 Guidance From Profit to ($-0.35) Loss

HOLY COW!
NO SUPRISE HERE!

Titan Machinery today lowered FY2018 guidance which CONFIRMED that its Q1 Conference Call in May was another PUMP AND DUMP.
Just 90 days ago when Titan reported another huge  quarterly miss (loss) the stock was hammered in premarket only to have the Chairman go on the morning conference call at the market open to PROCLAIM that the company although had Q1 losses would BE PROFITABLE in FY2018.
The stock IMMEDIATELY RALLIED and shot up 30% off its morning low!
Within 24 hours the stock SOARED and sure enough the CHAIRMAN DUMPED HIS STOCK.
   


This morning the Chairman said in the Q2 press release that the Company WILL NOT BE PROFITABLE in FY2018 but instead would LOSE (-$0.35) a share in FY2018!

TITAN MACHINERY HAS BEEN PUMPING AND DUMPING STOCK FOR YEARS but the SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION continues to just looks the other way.

This post will be updated later today after the conference call as the company failed to disclose REVENUES in their morning press release regarding their NEW DISTRIBUTION channel with an entity outside of the AGRICULTURE/Construction Space

SALES DECLINED IN Q2 across every channel:
AGRICULTURE, CONSTRUCTION, RENTAL, SERVICE.

Follow the BELOW LINKS TO SEE HISTORY OF PUMP AND DUMP:
Earlier this year a SEEKING ALPHA author wrote an article saying Titan Machinery hasn't done anything Criminal to make stock go into the pink sheets. HERE IS MY REBUTTAL illustrating all the GAMES.

My rebuttal with links can be found below:



Thanks for the mention.
You mention that you didn't you see anything that the company has done that is criminal so you don't see the company blowing up.
I think it would take a criminal investigator to make that decision.
For instance , has any agency ever investigated the suspicious trading in the stock prior to the 8K filing when the auditor suddenly resigned? http://tinyurl.com/kkc...
Have you or any agency ever investigated the suspicious trading in the stock on the session prior to the company issuing a press release that the company announced they were abruptly closing stores?
Has any agency ever investigated the lack of "related party transactions" disclosure regarding the construction company that has done the work building out locations. http://tinyurl.com/mya...
In the quarter that the company inflated their assets and under reported losses by 50%, has any agency ever investigated that disclosure? http://tinyurl.com/k9x...
Has any agency investigated the HYPE EPS estimates made by the Penny Stock Firm located in Minnesota (FELTL) saying the company would earn $0.37, only to see the company report a loss of over a ($1.00) 6 months later? http://tinyurl.com/ke4...
Has any agency investigated who is running Dealer Sites? You mention Dealer Sites had those lease agreements with Titan prior to going public but the percentage ownership of 30% is incorrect. It was nearly 100%. Are you aware that in 2013 they increased the lease agreement from $50 million to over $100 million?
Does anyone know how many of the stores that still remain are on properties owned by Dealer Sites? Have any of the stores that closed on property owned by Dealer Sites?
Was there anything wrong When the Chairman hyped up his stock when he was featured on CNBC Mad Money with Jim Cramer and then 30 days later he and the CEO sold 500,000 shares @ $28 (note there are only 21 million shares out).
More notes on Selling into Hype here .. http://tinyurl.com/kk4...
I am not sure if any of these activities are criminal, I'm just not as confident as you that they are not.
I can dig up more notes later to post here.
As far as risk reward in owning shares here at the $15 level, what are your thoughts?
The company this month said they were closing 15 USA stores by July 31st (almost 20% of USA locations) and gave guidance that sales will decline in FY2018 and they company would not be profitable again for the 4th consecutive year.
If they were to earn $0.05 a share in FY2019 , do you think the company deserves a Price Earnings Multiple of 300 based on FY2019 earnings estimates?
You mention that the company has available Credit of $500 Million, but that is not really true because the covenants of their Loan agreements won't permit them to exceed their current ratios.
Although you correctly note that the company "had" $52 million on Jan 31,2017, that number has declined after they paid out $15 million to WFC since that date.
There's so so much more for me to comment about this company but I have to go somewhere this morning.





Friday, August 25, 2017

Back to School Newsletter Picks Available Now!

 

Tom Renna began his professional career on Wall Street 28 years ago after graduating Rutgers University. In 2005 Tom founded Equities Research LLC, a small boutique investment research firm where he provides market research analysis and consulting services to both Issuers (private and public) and Wall Street professionals. Tom's experience as an investment banker, financial advisor, institutional equity broker, bond broker, entrepreneur and director of a public company gives him the unique ability to see all sides of Wall Street. Tom provides invaluable insight to both issuers and investors, from the novice to top Wall Street executives.  In 1997 Tom was an original owner of Newsgrade Corporation, a private online publishing company that annually generated millions of timely and actionable automated unique stories that were streaming on Bloomberg Terminals for institutional investors. By 2003 Tom had become Managing Director of National Sales for Stockdiagnostics.com, a subsidiary of Newsgrade that he helped to create. Tom has made some of the top long and short calls over the last 25 years on Wall Street and his work has been mentioned on CNBC TV among other financial news sources. 
email Tom directly: thomasrenna@gmail.com

Since graduating Rutgers University (B.A.) in 1990, Tom has worked in the financial industry in various capacities. 

Founder of Equities Research 2005
Stock Picker and Author of the weekly, Tuesday Market Commentary, published at Global Investor Services, Inc., (formerly known as TheRetirementsolution.com). (May 2007, ending Spring 2009)
Large Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap folios for GISV   7/5/08-4/21/09
Stock Picker and Author of the famous weekly OPS Newsletter published by Stockdiagnostics.com
Broker, Insurance Agent and Financial Planner , specializing in Municipal Bonds at J.B.Hanauer brokerage (now RBC DAIN)
Accredited Asset Management Specialist - A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc., St. Louis, MO, a full-service New York Stock Exchange Member Firm.(now Wells Fargo )
Director of Business Development, CECS Corporation, Seattle, WA, a publicly traded holding company that specializes in the investment in technology companies. Also served on Board of Directors.
Timely analytical disclosure
Get there before the herd,
Know the Quality of the Numbers


Disclaimer.
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Thursday, July 6, 2017

Is this Retailer Heading Back to An All Time ________

Equities Research is expecting Titan Machinery to Trade at NEW ALL TIME LOW.
Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for TITN

Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.


In 2012 Titan Machinery earned over $2.00 in earnings per share and the stock traded at an all time high above $30 a share. That May, Wells Fargo completed an $150 million convertible indenture (@ $43) offering to the company.

5 years later the company still has nearly 22 million shares outstanding but the market capitalization has declined from $700 million to $400 million. As of April 30,2017 the company has about $50 million in cash and still has $75 million of the Wells Fargo Indenture due in less that two years.

Top Short Pick: Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)

Most recent Quarterly Report FY2018 Q1 was released in May 2017.

A Look At The Fundamentals Over last 5 years using Capital Market Labs







Monday, July 3, 2017

Jim Chanos: U.S. Economy is Worse Than You Think

Jim Chanos: U.S. Economy is Worse Than You Think: The famed short-seller offers a mid-2017 reality check for “fake fiscal news,” economic pipe dreams, and “portents of even worse things”

Friday, June 30, 2017

The Positive Contribution of Short Sellers

This week the President, Tom Farley, from NYSE Group Inc said short selling "feels kind of icky and Un-American"

Famed Short Seller Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, was interviewed by Bloomberg later this week and took issue with Farley's comments.


Here is a  May 22, 2003 Presentation by David Rocker to the House of Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprise titled: 

"The Long and Short of Hedge Funds:  Effects of Strategies for Managing Market Risk" 

Included in the above link: 
March 1999 Barron's:"A CROWDED TRADE"
February 2001 Barron's: "Fantasy Accounting"





Monday, June 26, 2017

This Is Why You Must Watch 2,450 in the S&P 500

#FridayNightDump Where Companies Try to Hide Dirt in Plain Sight

When Markets close on Friday nearly every market participant from brokers, analysts, investors, money managers and even the media flee their terminals and turn their attention to their personal lives until they boot up again on Monday morning. Monday is when everyone logs back on gets plugged back into the market pulse and are bombarded with the latest news of the morning.

Experienced management from public companies that are very crafty and slick who wish to hide SEC disclosure file any unfavorable news on Friday Nights when everyone is away knowing that when the new week starts, last week's news is buried. Michelle Leder of @Footnoted coined Friday Night Filings as the #FridayNightDump





Journal of Accounting and Economics published research by professors from Cornell University and Simon Fraser University unveiling statistics of Friday Night Filers.

"Abstract

Using combinations of weekdays and times of day (before, during, and after trading hours) of earnings announcements, we examine whether managers attempt to strategically time these announcements. We document that the worst earnings news is announced on Friday evening and find robust evidence that only Friday evening announcements represent managers’ rational opportunistic behavior. Friday evening announcements are followed by insider trading in the direction of earnings news and the largest post-earnings announcement drift. Managers also attempt to reduce interaction with investors and hide more than just earnings news by announcing on Friday evening. We find that Friday evening announcements occur later in the evening than announcements on other evenings, firms have a reduced propensity to hold conference calls, and major firm restructuring events are relatively more likely to occur after Friday evening announcements."
Titan Machinery Visits #FridayNightDump for 2nd Time in JUNE
Friday Night a Form 4 was Filed by the CoFounder of Titan disclosing that 25,000 shares of stock from ASF LLC was distributed to two investors redeeming their interest in the LLC.

On Friday the stock traded sideways nearly all day all with the overall market but into the close while the overall market stayed sideways, TITAN MACHINERY traded an unusual amount of volume and the stock sold off 2 1/2% closing at $18.17.  The stock averages approximately  150,000 shares per day but on Friday traded over 330,000 shares (2X its norm).

Here is the Chart from Friday Prior the #FRIDAYNIGHTDUMP SEC disclosure:



On Thursday March 25th Titan Machinery in the premarket released their FY2018 1st quarter financials and reported another loss. (Over the last 13 quarters the company has reported an aggregate loss of over ($120 MILLION) although the stock has climbed from $170 million market capitalization to $400 million within the last 8 months. Over the prior 13 quarters SHAREHOLDER EQUITY HAS DECLINED FROM $411 Million to $317 Million!

Warren Buffett Explains this Difference Between Business Value and Book Value if you're buying this stock based on Book Value, think again.


The Company Also Announced :

  • US Sales Declined 17% in Q1 FY2018 vs Q1 FY2017
  • Announced Closing of 15 More Stores (20% of US locations
  • Scheduled Auction Liquidations of Inventories from at least 8 Locations in Q2
  • EPS for Q1 Missed Company's Guidance. Company gave the guidance on March 30th in a Conference Call when they were already 60 day into Q1.
  • Company on Conference Call  Hyped how they were able to pay down nearly $25 Million of an Indenture with Wells Fargo from Operational cash Flow.. But we would learn when the 10Q got filed weeks later that they Actually BORROWED $21 Million from a Credit line during the Quarter to end of the period with $50 million in cash.
  • Lowered FY2018 FULL YEAR EPS Guidance

So how did the stock MIRACULOUSLY  run up from $14.29 at the open on May 26th to above $18 within 24 hours?  A 30% JUMP.



BELOW IS CHART Starting on MAY 25th showing 30% Rise in 24 hours!
Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for TITN

Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

On Wednesday May 24,2017 the day prior to the press release there was AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY IN the JUNE OUT OF THE MONEY $17.50 CALLS @ $0.10 with the common stock only trading at $15. What made this peculiar is that the stock had not traded above $16  in over 3 YEARS!
Below is a SNAP SHOT taken from Yahoo on that day. These Options that were bought for $0.10 climbed to over $2.75 as the stock peaked above $19 less than 3 weeks later, while the $15 Calls climbed above $4.00!
2700% PROFIT !

So Where We?
Oh, How did the Stock Get GOOSED UP with such Horrible Financials and Lower Guidance?

Leave it to the MAESTRO!
At 9:30 am on the morning of March 26 the Chairman of the Company was still on the Conference Call with the stock down @ $14.19 and talked about Growth Through Acquisitions.  So the Company is Closing  15 more locations after closing over a dozen less than 2 years ago and pitching Wall Street FINEST about strategic ACQUISITIONS sending the stock up 30% from Thursday morning to Friday close. The word  "ACQUISITION" WAS MENTIONED 13 TIMES on the Call that morning  

The Maestro wasn't Finished! the following week TITAN MACHINERY would file a FORM 4 disclosing that the CHAIRMAN, the Maestro himself, SOLD STOCK ON That Prior FRIDAY into the RAMP! up 30% from Thursday.

#FRIDAYNIGHTDUMP On Friday June 2nd at 5:27pm  TITAN FILED their 10Q


  •  disclosing additional monies they borrowed 
  •  Reduced Credit Lines
  • Footnotes  disclosing new SALES AND SERVICE AGREEMENTS with CNHI 
  • ***note CNHI Construction generated generated NET INCOME of $2 Million on $2 Billion in Revenue. How a third party retailer like TITAN MACHINERY can even think about making a profit when the Manufcaturer can't earn money.


#FRIDAYNIGHT DUMP  When you're really SAVY like the Co-Founder of this Company, who also happens to be the Chairman of the UNDERWRITER Firm,  you make the company File A DUMP on the FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND like when the origianl AUDITOR of the Company Resigned. Another WILDLY TRADING SESSION that was followed by the 8K over that holiday weekend. (From the AUDITOR CAROUSEL)
  


COMING SOON is a LOOK at :
  • Has TITAN MACHINERY been able to Consistently Earn Profits on their Service and Parts Division by GENERATING PROFITS when Repairing their OWN INVENTORY?
  • prior Annual Reports and how the company valued USED and NEW EQUIPMENT
  • How Company Revenue Declined from over $2 Billion and Equipment Revenue declined to under $800 Million after closing nearly 20% of Locations and reducing the workforce by nearly 20% but he company STILL MANAGED TO MAINTAIN SERVICE AND PARTS PROFITS while reducing PARTS inventories via AUCTION LIQUIDATION?
If you are still reading and REALLY WANT TO Learn More about TITAN MACHINERY GAMES including:
  • SEC Division of Corporate Finance Comments regarding 4 FILINGS
  • Auditor FEES with Deloitte as Doubled while Company Sales have decline over 50%
  • the RECENT Resignation of a CoFounder as President and Director who is still listed on the Comapny's HOME PAGE AS PRESIDENT 
  • Or about the SIX DIRECTORS WHO RECENTLY RESIGNED
  • COMPANY AIRCRAFT
  • RELATED PARTY DISCLOSURE
  • SUSPICIOUS TRADING
  • PUMP AND DUMPS
  • PENNY STOCK BROKER HYPING TITAN STOCK
  • NON DISCLOSED RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 
  • and so much more



Sunday, June 25, 2017

Harvard Professor, "We are Building Artificial Brains and Uploading Minds to Cloud right now"

On Twitter I follow @PainCapital and he shared this insightful video.




If you follow the Markets, I recommend that you follow 
@PainCapital on Twitter 

Sunday, June 11, 2017

How many countries in the world are fully democratic?


1. Norway - 9.93 2. Iceland - 9.50 3. Sweden - 9.39 4. New Zealand - 9.26 5. Denmark - 9.20 6. Ireland - 9.15 7. Canada - 9.15 8. Switzerland - 9.09 9. Finland - 9.03 10. Australia - 9.01 11. Luxembourg​ - 8.81 12. Netherlands - 8.80 13. Germany - 8.63 14. Austria - 8.41 15. Malta - 8.39 16. Britain - 8.36 17. Spain - 8.30 18. Mauritius - 8.28 19. Uruguay - 8.17 source: www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/01/daily-chart-20


Tesla Says "Convertible Notes May Encourage Short Selling"

"convertible notes may encourage short selling"




Q1 Consolidated Statement of Operations






Barbarian Capital: Book Review: "Dead Companies Walking" by Scott Fea...: "Dead Companies Walking" is an excellent investing book that focuses on individual company shorts that hedge fund manager Mr. Fear...

TheStreet: 20 Troubled Retailers Besides J.C. Penney That Are Shuttering Stores