Wednesday, May 31, 2017

TITAN Chairman Excited on Conference Call DUMPS STOCK Next Day AT 3 YEAR HIGH

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN $17.20) reported FY2018 1st Quarter numbers last week on Thursday morning. The company reported Sales in Unites States had declined 17% and re-iterated the company was closing 15 stores (20% of their US locations by end of 2nd quarter. 
The Stock opened on Wednesday morning down nearly 10% @ $14.39.



At the market open management was finishing up their  Conference Call where the Chairman hinted to analysts that he was speaking with acquisition candidates and was hoping the company could close a deal soon. (The word ACQUISITION was MENTIONED 13 TIMES on the call). Shares of the Stock Rebounded IMMEDIATELY and the shares skyrocketed from $14.39 at the open to a high of $17.16. A 21% MOVE HIGHER within hours.

Chairman Meyer caption from SeekingAlpha Conference Call Transcript:
Source: StockCharts.com
Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for TITN

Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

Strangely enough someone on Wednesday the day prior to the announcement the company had unusual call options activity with heavy buying in the out-of the money $17.50 June calls with the common stock under $15.
Those Wednesday purchases in the $12.50, $15 and $17.50 (strikes )calls Increased in price 400% within 24 hours!


The Company announced their Q1 results on Thursday morning last week but they still HAVE NOT FILED their Q1 10Q with the Securities and Exchange.

The following day on Friday with shares climbing even higher the investment banker Stephens issued a morning note helping fuel the momentum as shares made a NEW 3 year high @ $17.43.

Stephens' Former Officer/Director recently resigned as a Director of Titan Machinery.
He is one of 6 of the 9 Directors that has resigned from Titan Since May 2015, including the Cofounder who resigned as President and received nearly a $2 million severance agreement that company still has not finished paying off.



Today we learned from a NEW SEC FORM FILING that the Chairman Sold Shares into the Ramp.
To see a history of insider selling during hyped management reports, click here.
The majority of the Chairman's remaining position is equity from under $3.00 a share.
   




In March 2017 the Company reported the weak fundamentals (3 years of losses (see above) and gave guidance that they would lose money again in FY2018.
But thanks to FAKENEWS like the Headline/Article below shares spiked as usual.


A TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE : What Kind of PEOPLE RUN TITAN?

DID TITAN MACHINERY MANAGEMENT OR EMPLOYEES SHARE INSIDE INFORMATION?

On Monday March 9,2015 the Overall Stock Market traded higher during a blockbuster day.  Titan Machinery for some reason did not participate in the rally and instead had one of its worse trading days in its history falling 6% on the session.
By A BIZZARE COINCIDENCE AFTER THE CLOSE that Monday TITAN MACHINERY PRE-ANNOUNCED FY2015 Year end Financials 1 month ahead of Schedule and the STOCK WAS HALTED after Hours.

ON June 9,2015 the Company Disclosed that they had Inflated Assets and Understated Losses. Ironically, these errors occurred at the time that the coFounder suddenly resigned as president. (although these accounting errors were disclosed one year after the fact).

REMEMBER THE SUSPICIOUS TRADING PRIOR TO THE AUDITOR RESIGNATION BEING DISCLOSED on 4th of July weekend in 2013?



What role does the local Minnesota penny stock firm FELTL play in all this activity?
Recently the Director of Research who was the biggest bull on Titan for years has recently resigned and has taken a position as the CFO of a local penny stock public company (RIBT).

TITAN has a history of HYPED GUIDANCE and insiders selling into stock getting pumped up, only to see numbers getting reported within 7 months and missing guidance by miles.


SEC Comment Letters that have been sent to Titan through the years can be found here

On Seeking Alpha Recently a Bullish Article was also written

HOW MUCH PROFIT CAN TITAN EARN REDUCING INVENTORY VIA AUCTION LIQUIDATIONS?










Thursday, May 25, 2017

Titan Machinery Reports Q1 USA SALES DECLINE 17% and Lowers FY2018 EPS Guidance

Titan Machinery Chairman announces in FY2018  press release this morning that 
 "the cost savings for fiscal 2018 will be less than previously expected."

TOTAL Fy2018 Q1 US SALES Declined 17% vs Q1 Fy2017
USA Sales Declined from $157 million to $131 million

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN $15.67)
First Quarter Results 
                                    FY2015      FY2016    FY2017    FY2018
Equipment Revenue    $345m        $244m      $184m      $168m   
Total Revenue             $465m        $353m      $284m      $264m
Net Income (loss)       -($6.5m)    -($6.2m)   -($3.6m)    -($5.9m)
EPS (loss)                    -($0.31)     -($0.29)    -($0.17)     -($0.27)

Stockholder Equity                     Stock                    Market Cap
April 30,2014:  $405,000,000    $16.50 (5/2014)     $365M 
April 30,2017:  $317,000,000    $17.00 (5/2017)     $375M




Titan Closing 15 locations (20% of USA stores) and Schedules Auction Liquidations to unload inventory to raise additional cash to service debt. 
Management Agrees to Pay CoFounder (former President) $650,000 severence.

Income (LOSS) before income taxes)
FY2015: -($38,340,000)
FY2016: -($56,211,000)
FY2017: -($22,713,000)
total loss for 3 years: -($117,264,000)












Monday, May 15, 2017

Facebook: 5 year Anniversary of IPO

May 18,2012 Facebook IPO $38 @ Morgan Stanley
FACEBOOK PROSPECTUS 
May 15,2017 $150.33 
300% return in 5 years 
31% Annualized Return 5 yrs

May 18,2012 S&P 500 @ 1295

May 15,2017 S&P 500 @ 2390
85% return 5 years
13% Annualized Return 5 yrs

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for FB



Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

Wednesday, May 3, 2017

TOP 50 United States Companies By Market Capitalization

October 30,2015 - April 30,2017
18 months
Equities Research: #bearish #SELL
  • S&P 500 has has gained 305 points for a 15% gain.
  • NIKE and Starbucks are no longer in top 50
  • AMZN has gained $149 Billion +51%
  • FB has gained $148 Billion +52%
  • AAPL has gained 87 Billion +13%
  • GOOG gained $143 Billion +29%
  • MSFT gained $109 Billion +26%
  • BRK gained $70 Billion +21%
  • XOM, KO are Flat
  • VZ -$3 Billion (-2%)  DIS -$10 Billion (-5%)
  • WFC -$7 Billion -2%
  • JPM gained $72 Billion +30%
  • WMT gained $44 Billion +24%
  • MCD gained $9 Billion +8%
  • IBM gained $14 Billion +10%
  • ORCL gained $20 Billion +12%
  • Home Depot gained $29 Billion +18%
Charts below from IWeblists)
 






Monday, May 1, 2017

Titan Machinery: 6th Director RESIGNS

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) last week filed a  DEF14 with the Securities and Exchange Commission disclosing that Lead Independent Director JAMES Irwin is resigning from the Board of Directors.

SIX of Titan Machinery's Nine Directors that sat on the Board in May 2015 have now gone including the Co-Founder Peter Christenson who suddenly resigned as President after the company filed a DEF14 in May 2015.


CLOSING STORES IN USA And Focusing on Growth in Europe

TITAN MACHINERY last month the closing of 15 more locations before July 31,2017 and announced FY2018 Sales are expected to decline for Fourth Consecutive Year and the company will not be profitable for a 4th consecutive year.

The closing of 14 Agriculture Locations in the USA will bring store total to 49 USA Agricultural Locations and the closing of 1 construction location will reduce Construction Locations down to 25 USA stores.
Titan has 20 International Locations but does not break down how many are AG and Construction.

  • the 65 Agriculture Locations generated $739 million in sales in FY2017 and loss ($15,7 Million). Average of $11 million in sales per store.
  • the 26 Construction Locations generated $323 million in sales in FY2017 and loss ($5.8 million). Average of $12 million in sales per store.
  • the 20 International Locations generated $150 million in sales in FY2017 and loss ($0.5 Million) Average $7 million in sales per store.

Since November 2016 the stock has climbed from under $9 to $16 a share bringing the market capitalization above $350 million.   The Fundamentals below are from the most recent 10K. Why Wall Street is celebrating these weak financials and valuing the 100 locations at an average of over $3.5 million per location is the greatest example of a stock that is disconnected from the underlying fundamentals of its business. 









 






SOME MAJOR RISKS FROM FY2017 10K


THE TIME TO SELL WAS WHEN THE DIRECTORS WERE SELLING:

 One time Chairman of ZNOMICS (Pink Sheets, ZNOM: one for 285 reverse split: ) is also co-founder of  TITAN Machinery. But there is no mention of ZNOMICS in the biography of the  TITAN director who is up for re-election DEF14A

Cherry Tree relationship Adam Smith Fund.
According to this SEC Filing Adam Smith is disclosed as a a "PROMOTER"

Fy2017 10K FOOTNOTES: DEBT, DEBT and more DEBT

ON THE POSITIVE SIDE, 
SEEKING ALPHA Writer Doesn't See Anything Criminal or Fraudulent at Titan Machinery that will cause the Stock to Blow UP.
(I on the other hand is not as confident as that writer and have commented on his article here)