Tuesday, August 26, 2014

DANGER: Titan Machinery Bond Hits ALL TIME LOW....****Alert

*****ALERT.....*****ALERT....the end of Titan Machinery is rapidly approaching.

Titan Machinery Convertible Indenture (2019) hit a NEW all time low yesterday @ $79.00 yield 9.39%

Titan Machinery will be reporting FY2015 2nd quarter financials for the period ending July 31,2014 withing the next month.


#bearish

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75%  Maturity:2019.
Closed Yesterday:  $79.00 w 9.39% yield.



Date of Offering : April 18,2012 
Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible




Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.65 on volume of 120,358 shares. The stock has closed below $14 for the ninth consecutive session.

Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .


  •  FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
  •  April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location

TITN 2 year chart vs. S&P500 (source: BigCharts )


Thursday, August 21, 2014

Titan Machinery Bond (2019) Makes Third New YTD Low In 2 Weeks

 #bearish

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75%  Maturity:2019.
Closed Yesterday:  $81.13 w 8.73% yield.


Date of Offering : April 18,2012 
Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible




Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.50 on volume of 91,868 shares. The stock has closed below $14 for the sixth consecutive session.

Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .


  •  FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
  •  April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location.

A Post About a Former Apple Shareholder on LinkedIn today






www.linkedin.com/pub/ralph-lugo/64/337/1a4

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Follow Cramer and Be Bullish on Starbucks

Today Jim Cramer wrote at the TheStreet, "Jim Cramer's Stop Trading: Starbucks Should Go to $82"

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) reported poor cash flow from operations for the 9 month period ending June 30,2014. A closer look into the 3rd quarter 10Q reveals cash flow was actually robust but was negativity effected by the Kraft litigation.

Cash Flow from Operations:
FY2013 nine months:  $2.03 billion

FY2014 nine months : ($133 million)

from 1st quarter 10Q: (page 28)

  • Cash used by operating activities was $1.4 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2014, compared to cash provided by operating activities of $1.1 billion for the same period in fiscal 2013. The decrease was driven by the first quarter payment of $2.8 billion for the Kraft arbitration matter discussed above. This was partially offset by cash provided by operating activities of $1.4 billion resulting from increased earnings and improvements in working capital accounts.

JOBS ACT Title III is Taking Forever To Pass

The Securities & Exchange Commission has still not allowed  Title III of the Crowdfunding Act to pass.

Crowdfunding killed in NC; bill backer criticizes Senate strategy



Target Cash Flow Declines $2.6 Billion (-63%)

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT $59.25) announce 2nd quarter financials this morning for the period ending August 2,2014.

Operational Cash Flow:

FY2013 6 months: $4.1 billion
FY2014 6 months: $1.5 billion (63% decline)

TTM ending Aug 3,2013 : $6.96 billion
TTM ending Aug 2,2014 : $3.92 billion (43% decline)




Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Top Ten Institutions Own 85% of Titan Machinery Stock

 #bearish
According to Morningstar, the top ten institutions holding Titan Machinery stock own over 18 million of the approximately 21 million shares outstanding (85%). (from Morningstar.com)
  •  Invesco Canada Fund Inc,  4.0 million shares (19%)
  • Amvescap Plc.,                   3.6 million shares (17%)
  • Fidelity Management Co.    2.5 million shares (13%)
  • Invesco Advisers, Inc.         2.3 million shares (11%)
  • Huber Capital                      1.3 million shares (6%)
  • Towle & Co                        1.2 mllion shares (6%)
  • Dimensional Fund Advisors  907K shares      (4%)
  • Robeco Investment M          850K shares      (4%)
  • Granahan Investment            635K shares      (3%)
  • Vanguard Group, Inc.           547K shares      (2%)

To view institutions that hold Titan Machinery Bonds click here 

2 year stock chart of Titan Machinery (source BigCharts.com)




TheStreet Reports Higher Sales and Cash Flow for Q2

Summary

  • Operational Cash Flow for the 6 months ending June 30, 2014 increased to over $2 million vs $1.1 million in the comparable 6-month period from a year ago.
  • The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities of $59.1 million and zero debt.
  • This week on my LinkedIn thread, Herb Greenberg's status update time stamped his 1-year work anniversary at TheStreet.
On my LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) thread this week, my connection Herb Greenberg's status update time stamped his 1-year work anniversary at TheStreet.com (NASDAQ:TST).
A year ago, I recommended TheStreet stock at $2.04 (dividend adjusted) after the company reported FY2013 2nd quarter financials for the period ending June 30,2013 and announced a 25% increase in Free Cash Flow.


"Revenue in the second quarter of 2014 was $14.8 million, an increase of 9.5% from $13.5 million in the prior year period."
"The Company generated $2.0 million in operating cash flow for the six months ended June 30, 2014, compared to $1.2 million in operating cash flow for the prior year period."
"The Company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities of $59.1 million."


Operational Cash Flow for the 6 months ending June 30,2014 increased to over $2 million vs $1.1 million in the comparable 6 month period from a year ago. What makes the increase even more impressive is that company pays a $0.10 dividend, which is nearly a 4% yield at current market prices. In excess of $3 million per year.



There has been a recent shakeup in the online financial sector space:


I believe the TheStreet is a prime acquisition candidate for bigger media entities that would find it easier to buy the subscription distribution base and advertising model of the TheStreet vs. creating and building out their own.
Possible suitors for TheStreet, in my opinion, are:
  • Gannet (NYSE:GCI), as famous as the USA Today newspapers are today, their online financial Money presence is very weak.
  • Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) has high visibility in the financial arena with their CNBC TV programming, but their online presence is weak.
  • Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) has one of the most popular online financial news web sites on the entire web, while its advertising model is tremendous they fail to earn much revenue from a premium subscriber base like TheStreet.


A link to 2007 mergers
  • CBS Marketwatch was acquired by Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA).
  • 2007 Thomson Corp and Reuters Corp merged to become Thomson Reuters Corporation (NYSE:TRI).


The current market capitalization of TheStreet:
  • 34,439,149 shares outstanding
  • closing stock price $2.49
  • Market Capitalization: $85 million
  • total cash & marketable Securities : $59 million
  • Dividend Paid: $3.8 million
  • Debt: Zero
Subtracting the net cash position and annual dividend paid from the entire market capitalization, the underlying company is valued at $22 million.
TheStreet's underlying business in my opinion, (aside from its franchise value) should trade at an operational cash flow multiple of a minimum 25 times $4million = $100 million. In other words, I believe the underlying business which is currently valued at approximately $22 million should be trading 5 times higher at $100 million alone, which would have the common stock valued at nearly $6.00 per share. (Or a total market capitalization of $160 million.)


Equities Research Archives on TheStreet dating back to 2007

Disney & Home Depot Make All TIme Highs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed yesterday @ 16,838.74 up 175.83 on the session.
Home Depot (NYSE: HD)  and Disney (NYSE: DIS) both reached all time highs, HD closed  @ $89.97, while DIS closed @ 83.59.



Monday, August 18, 2014

Awaiting Titan Machinery Q2 Results

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) Fiscal Year 2015 2nd quarter ended July 31,2014. Over the last several years Titan has reported Q2 financials within the first 10 days of September. Titan has not yet announced when they will be reporting Q2  financials.


Don't Be Surprised if Titan Machinery Pre-Announces Q2  Financials in August
Investors should note that in 2013 Titan shares were halted after the close on May 23,2013 when the company uncharacteristically announced preliminary  FY2014 Q1 financials (approximately 2 weeks before they normally released Q1 numbers). In the press release and on the conference call the following morning, the company  significantly lowered expected Q1 financials and cut their year end FY2014 outlook dramatically.

FY2014 Q1 May 23,2013 Titan Machinery Press Release:
  • "First quarter fiscal 2014 revenue is expected to be approximately $50 million less than the Company previously anticipated;"
  •  "Preliminary loss per diluted share for the first quarter of fiscal 2014 is expected to be in the range of $(0.01) to $(0.03) on approximately 20.9 million weighted average diluted common shares outstanding, compared to net income of $0.36 on approximately 21.0 million weighted average diluted common shares outstanding in the first quarter last year."
  •  "believe we will see improvements in our construction segment in the second quarter and throughout the remainder of fiscal 2014."
FY2014 Q2 reported on September 5,2013 Company  press release



FY2014 Q2 Financials Examined by Equities Research LLC,


  •  Thursday, September 5, 2013

    Titan Machinery EPS Falls 73%

    Titan Machinery Lowered Guidance for FY2014 from  $1.70-$2.00 down to $1.20-$1.50
    Q2 Operational Cash flow NEGATIVE $42 million


    EPS declined 73% 6 months
    FY2013 6 months : $0.60
    FY2014 6 months : $0.16

    EPS declined 28% Q2 vs Q2
    FY2013 Q2 : $0.25
    FY2014 Q2 : $0.18

    CASH declined $22 million
    January 31,2013 : $124 million (Accounts Payable $28 million)
    July 31,2013 :       $102 million (Accounts Payable $39 million)

    Total Current Liabilities
    January 31,2013 : $804 million
    July 31,2013 :       $969 million

    Total Long Term Liabilities 
    January 31,2013: $239 million
    July 31,2013 :      $264 million

    Net Income vs Operational Cash Flow
    Trailing 10 quarters ending July 31,2013 Net Income:                 $89 million
    Trailing 10 quarters ending July 31,2013 OP. Cash Flow:        -($345 million)

 

Barry Ritholtz Talked to Jim Chanos on Bloomberg

This weekend I listened to Barry Ritholtz interview Jim Chanos on Bloomberg.

Two of the smartest financial minds of all time.

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Titan Machinery Bond Hits New YTD Low

Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.34 on volume of 140,000 shares. The last time the stock traded this low was on July 22,2010 when it closed @ $13.54.
Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .

  •  FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
  •  April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location.

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75%  Maturity:2019.
Closed Week:  $83.19 w 8.11% yield.

Date of Offering : April 18,2012 
Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible

** Recent Amendments To $150 million indenture

Amendment #3

In the Footnote Exhibit 10.53, terms of Titan Machinery's $150 million convertible note with Wells Fargo is disclosed with Amendments that were made on April 3,2014.





1.1.6    Effective as of the Third Amendment Effective Date, Section 6.12(a) of the Credit Agreement is hereby deleted in its entirety and the following is substituted therefor:
(a)    Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.25 : 1.00, and (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.00 : 1.00.
1.1.7    Section 6.12(b) of the Credit Agreement is hereby deleted in its entirety and the following is substituted therefor:

(b)    Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, as at the end of each Fiscal Period, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.25 : 1.00.

1.1.8    The following is hereby inserted in the Credit Agreement as Section 6.12(c):

(c)    Consolidated Net Income. Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, for the period consisting of the four consecutive Fiscal Periods ending on such date, a Consolidated Net Income of not less than $5,000,000.00, and (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, for the period consisting of the four consecutive Fiscal Periods ending on such date, a Consolidated Net Income of not less than $10,000,000.00. For purposes of this Section 6.12(c) only, (a) for all Fiscal Periods through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, the One-Time Impairment Charge (net of the tax benefit to the extent already included in the determination of Consolidated Net Income) shall be excluded from the calculation of Consolidated Net Income, and (b) for all Fiscal Periods through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014 for that portion of the One-Time Restructuring Charge incurred in the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014, and through the Fiscal Period January 31, 2015 for that portion of the One-Time Restructuring Charge incurred in the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014, the One-Time Restructuring Charge (net of the tax benefit to the extent already included in the determination of Consolidated Net Income) shall be excluded from the calculation of Consolidated Net Income.


Amendment #2





1.1.5       Effective as of October 31, 2013, Sections 6.12(a) and (b) of the Credit Agreement are hereby deleted in their entirety and the following are substituted therefor:

(a)           Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio.  Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2013, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.75 : 1.00, (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.50 : 1.00, (c) as at the end of the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.25 : 1.00, and (d) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2015, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.00 : 1.00.

(b)           Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio.  Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2013 through the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.15 : 1.00, (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.20 : 1.00, and (c) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.25 : 1.00.


Amendment #1
  • SECTION 6.12                            FINANCIAL COVENANTS.

    (a)           Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio.  Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2012 through the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.00 : 1.00, and (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 2.50 : 1.00.

    (b)           Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio.  Borrower shall maintain, as at the end of each Fiscal Period ending after the Closing Date, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.25 : 1.00 for the then trailing twelve month period.

    ******definitions from original indenture:


    Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio means, as of the last day of a fiscal quarter, for the period consisting of the four consecutive Fiscal Periods ending on such date, subject to Section 1.02(h), the ratio of:  (a) the sum for such period of (without duplication):  (i) Consolidated EBITDAR; minus (ii) all payments in cash for taxes related to income made by Borrower and its Subsidiaries; minus (iii) Capital Expenditures actually made in cash by Borrower and its Subsidiaries (net of any insurance proceeds, condemnation awards or proceeds relating to any financing with respect to such expenditures); minus (iv) Restricted Payments paid in cash by Borrower; to (b) of:  (i) Consolidated Interest Expense; plus (ii) Consolidated Rent Expense; plus (iii) without duplication, all current maturities of long-term Debt (including with respect to Debt that is a capital lease).

    Consolidated Interest Expense means, for any period, for Borrower and its Subsidiaries on a consolidated basis, the sum of (without duplication):  (a) all interest, premium payments, debt discount, fees, charges and related expenses in connection with borrowed money (including capitalized interest) or in connection with the deferred purchase price of assets during such period; plus (b) all payments made under interest rate Swap Contracts during such period to the extent not included in clause (a) of this definition; minus (c) all payments received under interest rate Swap Contracts during such period; plus (d) the portion of rent expense with respect to such period under capital leases that is treated as interest in accordance with GAAP.

    Consolidated Leverage Ratio means, as of any date of determination, the ratio of:  (a)  Consolidated Total Liabilities; to (b) Consolidated Tangible Net Worth.

    Consolidated Net Incomemeans for any period, the sum of net income (or loss) for such period of the Borrower and its Subsidiaries on a consolidated basis determined in accordance with GAAP, but excluding any income of any Person if such Person is not a Subsidiary, except that the Borrower’s direct or indirect equity in the net income of any such person for such period shall be included in such Consolidated Net Income in accordance with GAAP.

    Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio means, as of any date of determination, the ratio of:  (a) the sum of (i) Consolidated Total Liabilities, minus (ii) the amount by which Cash Equivalents held by Borrower and its Subsidiaries as of such date of determination exceed $30,000,000; to (b) Consolidated Tangible Net Worth.

    Consolidated Rent Expense means for such period, total rental expenses attributable to operating leases of the Borrower and its Subsidiaries for real property on a consolidated basis.


Friday, August 15, 2014

Berkshire Hathaway Shares Make New High $201,204


  • Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL $97.50)         $583 billion market capitalization
  • Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM $99.09)           $422 billion market capitalization
  • Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG $574.65)    $388 billion market capitalization
  • Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT $44.27)         $364 billion market capitalization
  • Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A )      $324 billion market capitalization

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Top Technical Analyst Greg Harmon looks at Titan Machinery (again)

Expert Technical Analyst, Greg Harmon of DragonFlyCap.com, was kind enough again this morning to share his read on the stock chart of Titan Machinery (NASADQ: TITN $13.76) after the shares closed at a new 4 year low last night. The last time Titan stock closed this low was on July 23,2010 when it closed at $13.92. Greg has been spot on with his technical analysis of this ticker:

Note: Titan Machinery remains Equities Research  top short pick based on fundamental analysis.





click image to enlarge


 
   



Tuesday, August 12, 2014

NU SKIN 10Q: Negative Operational Cash Flow

Nu Skin filed their FY2014  2nd quarter 10Q today with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

FY2014 6 months Operational Cash Flow declined over $370 million vs. the comparable first 6 months of FY2013.

  • FY2013 6 months Operational Cash Flow : Positive $188 million
  • FY2014 6months Operational Cash Flow : NEGATIVE ($184 million)




O'Captain my Captain

Monday, August 11, 2014

Wall Street Journal Is On Top of Crowdfunding

The Wall Street Journal is doing a terrific job of reporting on the developments taking place in the World of Crowdfunding.

Hits on Titan's 2011 Insider Selling Post Spiking

Hits on a June 2011 post at Equitiesresearch.com pointing to the insider selling at Titan Machinery has recently spiked.


7/13/2011

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)


  INSIDER SELLING:
On June 9,2011 Chairman David Meyer appeared on Jim Cramer's MAD MONEY  and touted TITAN MACHINERY's future. 30 days later DAVID MEYER SOLD 300,000 shares @ $27.80 and received proceeds of $8,340.00.00 and CEO Peter Christianson sold 200,000 shares $27.80 for proceeds of $5.56 million.

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

NY TIMES looks at Facebook & Google's New Buying Strategy

Today on Dealbook, the New York Times :

New Buying Strategy as Facebook and Google Transform Into Web Conglomerates



  • "The goal is no longer building a business but to be in the orbit of these tech giants. Or to put it another way, to win the lottery."
 
  • "it used to be that someone struggled for years to build a company before it went public. Sure, some companies were sold when they were at an early stage with little, or even no, revenue, but that strategy reaped tens of millions of dollars, not billions."


  • "The competition to stay on top has led the tech conglomerates to drive valuations sky high as they battle for start-ups."



Saturday, August 2, 2014

Posts of Titan Machinery's Decline from $30 to $14


Friday, August 24, 2012

Weakening Cash Flow at DICK'S & TITAN 

Monday, September 10, 2012

Titan Reports, Misses, Cuts, ....Drops


Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Titan Machinery Reports in Morning

Thursday, May 16, 2013

March Newsletter Performance 9 out 10 Picks " In The Money"


Thursday, May 16, 2013

13 out 15 February Newsletter Picks "In the Money"


Tuesday, June 4, 2013
TITAN STOCKHOLDERS Did NOT APPROVE PROPOSAL 3


Monday, August 12, 2013

Titan Machinery Warning


Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Don't Trust Titan Machinery's Guidance


Thursday, September 5, 2013

Titan Machinery EPS Falls 73%

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Greg Harmon Technical Chart of Titan Machinery