Thursday, August 28, 2014

Titan Machinery New Low , Down on Unusually High Volume

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

DANGER: Titan Machinery Bond Hits ALL TIME LOW....****Alert

*****ALERT.....*****ALERT....the end of Titan Machinery is rapidly approaching.

Titan Machinery Convertible Indenture (2019) hit a NEW all time low yesterday @ $79.00 yield 9.39%

Titan Machinery will be reporting FY2015 2nd quarter financials for the period ending July 31,2014 withing the next month.

#bearish

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75% Maturity:2019.
Closed Yesterday: $79.00 w 9.39% yield.

Date of Offering : April 18,2012

Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible

http://www.cherrytree.com/news/releasearchive/titan_0412.htm

(more on investment banker Cherry Tree can be found here)

Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.65 on volume of 120,358 shares. The stock has closed below $14 for the ninth consecutive session.

Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .

FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location

TITN 2 year chart vs. S&P500 (source: BigCharts )

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Titan Machinery Bond (2019) Makes Third New YTD Low In 2 Weeks

#bearish

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75% Maturity:2019.
Closed Yesterday: $81.13 w 8.73% yield.

Date of Offering : April 18,2012

Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible

http://www.cherrytree.com/news/releasearchive/titan_0412.htm

(more on investment banker Cherry Tree can be found here)

Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.50 on volume of 91,868 shares. The stock has closed below $14 for the sixth consecutive session.

Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .

FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Target Cash Flow Declines $2.6 Billion (-63%)

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT $59.25) announce 2nd quarter financials this morning for the period ending August 2,2014.

Operational Cash Flow:

FY2013 6 months: $4.1 billion
FY2014 6 months: $1.5 billion (63% decline)

TTM ending Aug 3,2013 : $6.96 billion
TTM ending Aug 2,2014 : $3.92 billion (43% decline)

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Top Ten Institutions Own 85% of Titan Machinery Stock

#bearish
According to Morningstar, the top ten institutions holding Titan Machinery stock own over 18 million of the approximately 21 million shares outstanding (85%). (from Morningstar.com)

Invesco Canada Fund Inc, 4.0 million shares (19%)
Amvescap Plc., 3.6 million shares (17%)
Fidelity Management Co. 2.5 million shares (13%)
Invesco Advisers, Inc. 2.3 million shares (11%)
Huber Capital 1.3 million shares (6%)
Towle & Co 1.2 mllion shares (6%)
Dimensional Fund Advisors 907K shares (4%)
Robeco Investment M 850K shares (4%)
Granahan Investment 635K shares (3%)
Vanguard Group, Inc. 547K shares (2%)

To view institutions that hold Titan Machinery Bonds click here

2 year stock chart of Titan Machinery (source BigCharts.com)

Disney & Home Depot Make All TIme Highs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed yesterday @ 16,838.74 up 175.83 on the session.
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Disney (NYSE: DIS) both reached all time highs, HD closed @ $89.97, while DIS closed @ 83.59.

Monday, August 18, 2014

Awaiting Titan Machinery Q2 Results

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) Fiscal Year 2015 2nd quarter ended July 31,2014. Over the last several years Titan has reported Q2 financials within the first 10 days of September. Titan has not yet announced when they will be reporting Q2 financials.

Don't Be Surprised if Titan Machinery Pre-Announces Q2 Financials in August

Investors should note that in 2013 Titan shares were halted after the close on May 23,2013 when the company uncharacteristically announced preliminary FY2014 Q1 financials (approximately 2 weeks before they normally released Q1 numbers). In the press release and on the conference call the following morning, the company significantly lowered expected Q1 financials and cut their year end FY2014 outlook dramatically.

FY2013 Q1 May 23,2013 Titan Machinery Press Release:

"First quarter fiscal 2014 revenue is expected to be approximately $50 million less than the Company previously anticipated;"

"Preliminary loss per diluted share for the first quarter of fiscal 2014 is expected to be in the range of $(0.01) to $(0.03) on approximately 20.9 million weighted average diluted common shares outstanding, compared to net income of $0.36 on approximately 21.0 million weighted average diluted common shares outstanding in the first quarter last year."

"believe we will see improvements in our construction segment in the second quarter and throughout the remainder of fiscal 2014."

FY2013 Q2 reported on September 5,2013 Company press release

FY2013 Q2 Financials Examined by Equities Research LLC,

Thursday, September 5, 2013
Titan Machinery EPS Falls 73%

Titan Machinery Lowered Guidance for FY2014 from $1.70-$2.00 down to $1.20-$1.50
Q2 Operational Cash flow NEGATIVE $42 million

EPS declined 73% 6 months

FY2013 6 months : $0.60
FY2014 6 months : $0.16

EPS declined 28% Q2 vs Q2

FY2013 Q2 : $0.25
FY2014 Q2 : $0.18

CASH declined $22 million
January 31,2013 : $124 million (Accounts Payable $28 million)
July 31,2013 :       $102 million (Accounts Payable $39 million)
Total Current Liabilities
January 31,2013 : $804 million
July 31,2013 : $969 million
Total Long Term Liabilities
January 31,2013: $239 million
July 31,2013 :      $264 million
Net Income vs Operational Cash Flow
Trailing 10 quarters ending July 31,2013 Net Income:       $89 million
Trailing 10 quarters ending July 31,2013 OP. Cash Flow:        -($345 million)

Barry Ritholtz Talked to Jim Chanos on Bloomberg

This weekend I listened to Barry Ritholtz interview Jim Chanos on Bloomberg.

Two of the smartest financial minds of all time.

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Titan Machinery Bond Hits New YTD Low

Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) closed yesterday at $13.34 on volume of 140,000 shares. The last time the stock traded this low was on July 22,2010 when it closed @ $13.54.
Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .

FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location.

Bond:
Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75% Maturity:2019.
Closed Week: $83.19 w 8.11% yield.

Date of Offering : April 18,2012

Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible

http://www.cherrytree.com/news/releasearchive/titan_0412.htm

(more on investment banker Cherry Tree can be found here)

Click to original Wells Fargo $150 million Indenture disclosure with SEC

** Recent Amendments To $150 million indenture

Amendment #3

In the Footnote Exhibit 10.53, terms of Titan Machinery's $150 million convertible note with Wells Fargo is disclosed with Amendments that were made on April 3,2014.

10 K EX 10.53: THIRD AMENDMENT TO AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT

dated as of April 3, 2014

1.1.6 Effective as of the Third Amendment Effective Date, Section 6.12(a) of the Credit Agreement is hereby deleted in its entirety and the following is substituted therefor:

(a) Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.25 : 1.00, and (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.00 : 1.00.

1.1.7 Section 6.12(b) of the Credit Agreement is hereby deleted in its entirety and the following is substituted therefor:

(b) Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, as at the end of each Fiscal Period, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.25 : 1.00.

1.1.8 The following is hereby inserted in the Credit Agreement as Section 6.12(c):

(c) Consolidated Net Income. Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, for the period consisting of the four consecutive Fiscal Periods ending on such date, a Consolidated Net Income of not less than $5,000,000.00, and (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, for the period consisting of the four consecutive Fiscal Periods ending on such date, a Consolidated Net Income of not less than $10,000,000.00. For purposes of this Section 6.12(c) only, (a) for all Fiscal Periods through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, the One-Time Impairment Charge (net of the tax benefit to the extent already included in the determination of Consolidated Net Income) shall be excluded from the calculation of Consolidated Net Income, and (b) for all Fiscal Periods through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014 for that portion of the One-Time Restructuring Charge incurred in the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014, and through the Fiscal Period January 31, 2015 for that portion of the One-Time Restructuring Charge incurred in the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014, the One-Time Restructuring Charge (net of the tax benefit to the extent already included in the determination of Consolidated Net Income) shall be excluded from the calculation of Consolidated Net Income.

Amendment #2

3rd Quarter 10Q Footnote 10.2 Wells Fargo

SECOND AMENDMENT TO AMENDED AND RESTATED CREDIT AGREEMENT

dated as of November 14, 2013

1.1.5 Effective as of October 31, 2013, Sections 6.12(a) and (b) of the Credit Agreement are hereby deleted in their entirety and the following are substituted therefor:

(a) Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2013, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.75 : 1.00, (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.50 : 1.00, (c) as at the end of the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.25 : 1.00, and (d) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2015, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.00 : 1.00.

(b) Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2013 through the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.15 : 1.00, (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014 through the Fiscal Period ending October 31, 2014, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.20 : 1.00, and (c) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2015, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.25 : 1.00.

Amendment #1

FY 2012 10K Footnote 10.43 Original Convertible Indenture

FY 2012 10K Footnote 10.44 Convertible Indenture

SECTION 6.12                            FINANCIAL COVENANTS.

(a)           Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, (a) as at the end of each Fiscal Period beginning with the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2012 through the Fiscal Period ending January 31, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 3.00 : 1.00, and (b) as at the end of each Fiscal Period from and after the Fiscal Period ending April 30, 2014, a Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio not greater than 2.50 : 1.00.

(b)           Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio. Borrower shall maintain, as at the end of each Fiscal Period ending after the Closing Date, a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio not less than 1.25 : 1.00 for the then trailing twelve month period.

******definitions from original indenture:

“Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio” means, as of the last day of a fiscal quarter, for the period consisting of the four consecutive Fiscal Periods ending on such date, subject to Section 1.02(h), the ratio of: (a) the sum for such period of (without duplication): (i) Consolidated EBITDAR; minus (ii) all payments in cash for taxes related to income made by Borrower and its Subsidiaries; minus (iii) Capital Expenditures actually made in cash by Borrower and its Subsidiaries (net of any insurance proceeds, condemnation awards or proceeds relating to any financing with respect to such expenditures); minus (iv) Restricted Payments paid in cash by Borrower; to (b) of: (i) Consolidated Interest Expense; plus (ii) Consolidated Rent Expense; plus (iii) without duplication, all current maturities of long-term Debt (including with respect to Debt that is a capital lease).

“Consolidated Interest Expense” means, for any period, for Borrower and its Subsidiaries on a consolidated basis, the sum of (without duplication): (a) all interest, premium payments, debt discount, fees, charges and related expenses in connection with borrowed money (including capitalized interest) or in connection with the deferred purchase price of assets during such period; plus (b) all payments made under interest rate Swap Contracts during such period to the extent not included in clause (a) of this definition; minus (c) all payments received under interest rate Swap Contracts during such period; plus (d) the portion of rent expense with respect to such period under capital leases that is treated as interest in accordance with GAAP.

“Consolidated Leverage Ratio” means, as of any date of determination, the ratio of: (a) Consolidated Total Liabilities; to (b) Consolidated Tangible Net Worth.

“Consolidated Net Income” means for any period, the sum of net income (or loss) for such period of the Borrower and its Subsidiaries on a consolidated basis determined in accordance with GAAP, but excluding any income of any Person if such Person is not a Subsidiary, except that the Borrower’s direct or indirect equity in the net income of any such person for such period shall be included in such Consolidated Net Income in accordance with GAAP.

“Consolidated Net Leverage Ratio” means, as of any date of determination, the ratio of: (a) the sum of (i) Consolidated Total Liabilities, minus (ii) the amount by which Cash Equivalents held by Borrower and its Subsidiaries as of such date of determination exceed $30,000,000; to (b) Consolidated Tangible Net Worth.

“Consolidated Rent Expense” means for such period, total rental expenses attributable to operating leases of the Borrower and its Subsidiaries for real property on a consolidated basis.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Berkshire Hathaway Shares Make New High $201,204

Five Largest Public Companies by Market Capitalization

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL $97.50) $583 billion market capitalization
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM $99.09) $422 billion market capitalization
Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG $574.65) $388 billion market capitalization
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT $44.27) $364 billion market capitalization
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ) $324 billion market capitalization

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Top Technical Analyst Greg Harmon looks at Titan Machinery (again)

Expert Technical Analyst, Greg Harmon of DragonFlyCap.com, was kind enough again this morning to share his read on the stock chart of Titan Machinery (NASADQ: TITN $13.76) after the shares closed at a new 4 year low last night. The last time Titan stock closed this low was on July 23,2010 when it closed at $13.92. Greg has been spot on with his technical analysis of this ticker:

Note: Titan Machinery remains Equities Research top short pick based on fundamental analysis.

$TITN chart http://t.co/AUXBFTnQog working through a prior support zone, with H&S Top price objective to 3.16 @StockPicker908
— Greg Harmon, CMT (@harmongreg) August 14, 2014

click image to enlarge

Tweets by @harmongreg

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

NU SKIN 10Q: Negative Operational Cash Flow

Nu Skin filed their FY2014 2nd quarter 10Q today with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

FY2014 6 months Operational Cash Flow declined over $370 million vs. the comparable first 6 months of FY2013.

FY2013 6 months Operational Cash Flow : Positive $188 million

FY2014 6months Operational Cash Flow : NEGATIVE ($184 million)

$NUS 真是个废物
— tom renna (@StockPicker908) August 13, 2014

Op. C/F falls by $370million. $NUS 10Q 6mos 2014 operational cash flow Negative ($184 million) vs positive $188 mil CF 6mos 2013
— tom renna (@StockPicker908) August 13, 2014

O'Captain my Captain

Monday, August 11, 2014

Hits on Titan's 2011 Insider Selling Post Spiking

Hits on a June 2011 post at Equitiesresearch.com pointing to the insider selling at Titan Machinery has recently spiked.

7/13/2011

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN)

INSIDER SELLING:
On June 9,2011 Chairman David Meyer appeared on Jim Cramer's MAD MONEY and touted TITAN MACHINERY's future. 30 days later DAVID MEYER SOLD 300,000 shares @ $27.80 and received proceeds of $8,340.00.00 and CEO Peter Christianson sold 200,000 shares $27.80 for proceeds of $5.56 million.

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

NY TIMES looks at Facebook & Google's New Buying Strategy

Today on Dealbook, the New York Times :

New Buying Strategy as Facebook and Google Transform Into Web Conglomerates

By STEVEN DAVIDOFF SOLOMON

August 5, 2014 5:26 pm

"The goal is no longer building a business but to be in the orbit of these tech giants. Or to put it another way, to win the lottery."

"it used to be that someone struggled for years to build a company before it went public. Sure, some companies were sold when they were at an early stage with little, or even no, revenue, but that strategy reaped tens of millions of dollars, not billions."