Thursday, December 31, 2015

2015 Saw the Return of : Wall Street Week





"Markets are UNPREDICTABLE. There is time to take more risk and time to take less risk" ---Jim Chanos, Kynikos Associates

Interview on C-SPAN with Host of Wall Street Week Louis Rukeyser 








Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Home Capital Group (Bull vs Bear)

Equities Research (BEARISH: HCG)


Bull:

BNN - Watch TV Online | Jason Donville - Part Two

Bear:

BNN - Watch TV Online | Andy Nasr - Part Six

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Kickstarter and Indiegogo Are Diverging on Equity Crowdfnvesting - The Atlantic

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/12/crowdfunding-equity-kickstarter-indiegogo/421473/

"Indiegogo’s founder and CEO, of the new SEC rules, adding “[It] is really a huge win for America and is really a great opportunity for everyone to get involved with funding their neighbors or some great new idea that they want to see come to life.”

New York Times 

December 23,2015

When a Unicorn Start-Up Stumbles, Its Employees Get Hurt

"It’s not unusual for employees to be wiped out while venture capitalists make money,” said Dennis J. White, a partner in Boston at the law firm Verrill Dana, who has studied deals like Good’s."

Friday, December 18, 2015

Linkedin Interviews Roddy Boyd

Katrina Brooker, Senior Editor at Linkedin interview of Roddy Boyd.

December 17,2015

This financial fraud reporter says he’s the last of his kind. Should the rest of us be worried?


I have made some great calls in my 26 year career and have received testimonials and compliments from across the world, but the greatest compliment I every received came from Roddy Boyd.
I post his tweet on my website (and people ask me , who is Roddy Boyd?

From time to time I'm asked about analysts, diggers whose work I really respect, who do things well. Tom Renna, is a must follow
— Roddy Boyd  September 7, 2013



Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Equities Research on Feedly

Equities Research on Feedly

The Irrelevant Investor Looks At Ten Baggers

The Irrelevant Investor 
PCLN,REGN,NFLX,ALXN,MNST,CF,SWKS,GMCR,AMZN,AAPL
"These stocks spent on average 34% of the time in “bear market territory.” That’s pretty wild. One out of every three days these stocks were at least 20% off their all-time high"- Michael Batnick

"One of the common themes among the very best performing stocks is that they are attached to a high price-to-earnings ratio. It makes sense that the fastest growing companies deserve a higher multiple than the average stock. " - Michael Batnick

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Titan Machinery: New 6 Year Low and Conditions are Getting Worse

TITAN MACHINERY (NASDAQ:  TITN  $9.18 ) Friday traded at a 6 Year intra day low of $8.92. All time low for TITN is $7.50 set in March 2009.

  • 21.5 million shares outstanding
  • $200 million market Capitalization
  • Revenue for 9 months ending October 31,2015 : $1 Billion 
  • Net Income for 9 months ending October 31,2015 : neg -($2.8 million)
DECEMBER 2015 10Q states: 
" a one percentage point decrease in interest rates for the next 12-month period would result in an increase to pre-tax earnings and cash flow of approximately $3.3 million"

TradeCard TITN can be found at CMLVIZ




On December 13,2015 Motley Fool published the following article by author Lee Samaha:

"It's getting worseTitan's third-quarter 2016 revenue came in significantly below analyst estimates, with revenue declining 30% and equipment sales down a whopping 37%. Moreover, its updated full-year guidance reflected a weakening in its end markets"






My Comment to the Motley Fool Article:
Tom Renna
great work. I also thought it was interesting that Meyer said on conference call that Titan would not be profitable for FY2016 which ends January 31,2016. On September conference call he said they would be profitable for year.

To your point that revenue for Q3 missed analyst estimates, to put a number to that: Analyst estimates called for $416 million in revenue and company came in at $344 million. A $72 million miss (or -17%).

Prior to the Q3 call on december 3,2015, all 7 analysts estimated FY2016 to be profitable with significantly higher revenue estimates. I am curious how much longer it will take for analyst to update their research and estimates for FY2016.

Analyst Feltl estimates still read FY2016 net income estimates of $0.26 EPS, that would be $5.6 million net income. And as mentioned in call, Meyer says there will be NO PROFIT.

Not sure if you noticed this spin by management.
SEE ABOVE CHARTS From FY2016 Q3 and FY2015 Q3 and note CONSTRUCTION REVENUE

In the FY2015 Q3 10Q Titan showed Construction sales of $110m Up from $109m in FY14 Q3 and touted the Q3 improvement vs. Fy 2014 Q3 on December 2014 call.  

In the FY2016 Q3 10Q reported this week the $110 million in construction revenue in the Fy2015 Q3 has now been changed to $98m in FY2016 Q3 10Q.

So on the call and on the investor relations slide presentation they show Construction being lower by 11% using the $98 million revenue figure.
But if TITAN used the $110 million construction revenue number that appears in FY2015 Q3 10Q then Construction Revenue actually declined 21%.

Your point about the service profit margins is perfect. If sales of rental, parts and equipment weren't so horrible, the profit margins would have shrunk for the overall business.

CLIFF NOTES: $35 to $9 

December 5,2015 News Break from FlyOntheWall

09:53 EDTCAT, TITN, DE, CNHI, AGCOTitan Machinery inventory cut negative for CNH Industrial, says Wells Fargo
Titan Machinery's (TITN) inventory reduction forecast this morning appears negative for CNH Industrial (CNHI), said Wells Fargo, noting that Titan is a large CNH distributor. Titan's results and cautious outlook also have a negative read through for AGCO (AGCO), Deere (DE), and Caterpillar (CAT), according to the firm.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Yer Blues John Lennon - Eric Clapton

John Lennon died December 8,1980 35 years ago today. I was a sophomore in High school doing my homework and my brother Joe came into room to tell me.

Sunday, December 6, 2015

New York Times calls for end to “gun epidemic”

On Saturday December 5,2015 The New York Times ran an editorial on its From Page for the first time in 95 years. END THE GUN EPIDEMIC IN AMERICA



Two of  the most popular Gun Stocks in the market are Smith & Wesson (SWHC : $18.99) and Sturm Ruger & Co (RGR: $54.32).
Both are valued at $1 Billion Market Capitalizations.

SWHC on August 17,1999 traded at $1.06 

RGR  on March 26,1990 traded at $2.06 

TradeCards from CMLVIZ (Capital Market Laboratories)




Friday, December 4, 2015

Titan Machinery Trading Near Multi Year Low

A letter to readers.

Good morning,
yesterday Titan reported FY2016 Q3

How much is Titan Machinery worth?

Titan has a Market cap over $200 million.

The company for 9 months ending Oct 31,2015 
Sales were $1 Billion and net income was $1.2 million

Not a very good business model and in my opinion a company that is worth less than $100 million. (under $5)

Cash declined from January 31,2015 to October 31,2015 from $127 million to $78 million.

Sales for 9 months fell compared to 9 months a year ago from $1.4 Billion to $1 Billion

In 9 months FY 2015 when the company reported $1.4 billion in sales, net income for those 9months was $2.2 million.

titan still has not filed their 10Q

any questions or comments are welcomed.



Thursday, December 3, 2015

TITAN Reports Q3 , Misses on Revenue and EPS; Lowers Guidance

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) reported FY2016 3rd quarter financials this morning.

$TITN Reports Q3 Revenue $344 Million , Misses $416 Milllion Revenue Estimates by $72 Million -17%







Tuesday, December 1, 2015

What to Look For: Titan Reports Q3 Thursday Pre Market

Equities Research Bearish Titan Machinery 

As of July 31,2015 Titan Machinery had current liabilities of $692 million. The company's cash position declined from January 31,2015 to July 31,2015 from $127 million to $95 million.
Bonds (2019) on Friday traded at an all time low of $63.61 w 18.56% yield.

trailing ttm total gross profit $275m ($69m/qtr), total SG&A $246m ($62m/qtr), total Interest Exp $34m ($8.5/qtr)

The best Fundamental tool to research stocks in all of Wall Street is the CMLVIZ trade card from Capital Market Laboratories. (founder Ophir Gottlieb)

Titan Machinery Trade Card can be found here with complete fundamental and technical analysis.

Keep in Mind as you look at the Below charts that Titan has a $12.28 per share stock price and a $265 Market Capitalization. How much would you be willing to pay for this entire business model?


Revenue Trailing Twelve Months, 1-Year Growth % & EPS Net trailing twelve months






TheStreetSweeper - Zagg Glass Screen Protector Company Shattering Under Pressure

TheStreetSweeper - Zagg Glass Screen Protector Company Shattering Under Pressure

Jim Cramer Sees Stock Market Falling Further When Rates Rise

Jim Cramer founded TheStreet (TST : $1.71) 19 years ago.

The Clip below from November, Cramer says stay away from China Markets and Invest in USA stocks.