Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Carl Icahn ...... danger ahead

Institutions' Buys and Sells in Titan Machinery

Today is the last day of the 3rd Quarter and we will learn in the coming months the changes Mutual Funds and Institutions made during the July 1,2015 to September 30 period.

Today we will look at the changes made in the 2nd Quarter from April 1 thru June 30,2015.


Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Strong Buy TheStreet (Business Insider Acquired For $442 Million, )

TheStreet $TST NASDAQ: $1.68 ) 


We don't know fundamentals of Business Insider but we know they were acquired for SIX TIMES FWD SALES. TheStreet @ $60 million revenue times 6 would be $360 (High Teens)  million market cap. Beginning of Digital Media


TheStreet has just over 34 million shares outstanding @ $1,68 per share values the market capitalization @ $60 million

If TheStreet was valued in line with Business Insider , $442 million divided by 34 million shares would be $13 a share , 7.7 Times Higher than its current stock price
note TheStreet pays a dividend

The Street has 31 million cash

No Long term debt

Subtracting the $31 million cash from $60 million mkt cap values THeStreet underlying business @ $29 million

EQUITIES RESEARCH : STRONG BUY THESTREET $1.68

Monday, September 28, 2015

Titan Machinery Closed Week @ $11.42, Where is it Headed Next?

My opinion for the stock is that it heads down below the $5 range. 

The underlying business is shrinking dramatically. IN FY2013 they earned $42 million in net income and FY2015 they reported a loss of $31.5 million.

For the 1st 6 most of FY2016 they have loss ($0.29) , over $ 6 million loss.
Their credit lines were reduced by over $100 million and the covenants of their $150 million Indenture with Wells Fargo has had 6 amendment, the last being made earlier this year "After the company" was non compliant with the terms of the note.

The company faces tighter restrictions on the $WFC note and may be in jeopardy of violating the net income covenant for FY2016 Q3 when they report in December.

Aside from the weak fundamentals crippling the stock , the management has some very suspicious dealings.
Management entered into a long term $100 million contract with an outside entity that Management has an equity interest in. 

A year ago the company filed a 10Q and inflated their assets and understated losses and never deemed it necessary to re file that 10Q.
(by over 50%)

In May of this year the company filed a DEF 14A disclosing that the Founder would continue as President and asked the shareholders for the president to vote their shares via a proxy. After the DEF 14A filing, 4 days later, the founder resigned as President. No DEF 14A was re filed.

Of the 8 directors of the company in May 2015 , 3 have now resigned, including the CEO of CONN who resigned a week ago , effective immediately.

There has been suspicious trading in the stock, specifically around the resignation of the company's original auditor resigned over the 4th of July weekend in 2013.

The company has also had some personal selling (insider selling) after some hyped guidance that pumped up the stock price significantly up at the $29 level. (including an appearance on Jim Cramer's Mad Money.)

In June 2014, after the company reported FY2015Q2 , gave guidance that for the FY2015 ending in less than 6 months, that they would earn close to $1.00 a share in net income for the year ending Jan. 31,2015. Well less than 6 months later they reported a LOSS ($1.51) eps. A huge miss, 

The company is not a growth company any longer and is not profitable any more and should not be trading with a fwd PE 160.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Titan Machinery Director Resigns Effective Immediately

Titan Machinery Director Resigns Effective Immediately
3 of 8 Directors Since May Have Now Quit, 


Titan Machinery closed yesterday @ $12.09.

Can Titan Machinery Go to Zero? Three Reasons that can drive it to $0.00

Twitter Feed Highlights





Thursday, September 24, 2015

ZACKS: TITAN Ranks Highest Debt to EBITDA Ratio

Stock Market Research - Zacks Investment Research

September 22,2015

"Typically, this ratio is considered to be alarming when it 

is greater than 3.0 but this can vary and should be looked at 

within the context of the industry.Titan Machinery

 (NASDAQ:TITN) is highest with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 

25.2."


Click here to view Zack's Investment Research Breakdown of 

Titan Machinery fundamentals, especially note the fwd PE 

173 that the company currently trades at with the stock at

 $12.50.

From Morningstar: 6 of top 10 Institutions reduced their positions from April 1,2015 to June 30,2015.

Shares trade during that 90 day period at a low of $12.56 and a high of $15.94



Equity Ownership

 TITN


NameOwnership Trend
Previous 8 Qtrs
SharesChange% Total
Shares Held
% Total
Assets
Date
Invesco Canada Fund Inc.Premium3,762,259-181,69517.580.4306/30/2015
Fidelity Management and Research CompanyPremium3,209,584-2,39615.000.0106/30/2015
Invesco Advisers, Inc.Premium2,315,357010.822.9306/30/2015
Towle & CoPremium1,017,462-17,8904.762.7706/30/2015
Rutabaga Capital Management LlcPremium990,88004.631.4706/30/2015
Granahan Investment Management Inc..Premium953,882303,1004.460.4006/30/2015
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.Premium856,114-28,8394.000.0106/30/2015
Vanguard Group, Inc.Premium600,4152,4222.81006/30/2015
BlackRock Fund AdvisorsPremium488,389-29,0602.28006/30/2015
Yost Capital Management, L.L.C.Premium460,289-48,2272.154.6306/30/2015
Total: Top 10 institutionsPremium14,654,631-2,58568.49

Saturday, September 19, 2015

#FridayNightDump , The Best Time to Hide

Michelle Leder of *Footnoted is one of the best follows on all

of Twitter. Every Friday night she posts about public 

companies who sneak in SEC filings before the 

weekend,.... sometimes to simply avoid being noticed. 


July 10,2015 report: 

When is the Best Time to Hide Earnings News?












Friday, September 11, 2015

StockTwits Contest Winner: My Stock Pick Up 37% in 4 days.

update: I won the contest : http://stocktoberfest.co






$TITN $10.01 to $13.74 this week. UP 37.4%
 (chart from big charts.com)







My handle on twitter is @stockpicker908 , my original handle was @GFNNstock

I don't have that many followers, but i really appreciate these bright folks that interact with me. Not only are they smart , but they are good guys/ladies on the up and up.

The Tweet and kind words in my post from Roddy Boyd is the greatest compliment that I ever received in my life! Thank You Roddy Boyd 

Everyone receiving this should visit and bookmark Roddy Boyd's site.







































about founder Tom Renna
Contact Tom Renna (908) 477-4796 or thomasrenna@gmail.com


 
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Thursday, September 10, 2015

TITAN Up again, Is it time to go LONG?

Be Careful on the Short Side Because Sometimes Wall Street Obviously Doesn't care about Fundamentals

A weekly close > 5-week MMA of $12.93 targets the 200-week SMA of $19.68


Based on Fundamentals, Titan Machinery is a very overpriced stock. extremely overpriced.

But yesterday the shares were up 20% closing at $12.39 after reporting a mere $6,000 in net income.

A friend of mine tried to short the stock and informed me that there was "NO BORROW AVAILABLE" , which could explain the shares surging higher.

today the stock is up another 5% trading in the $13 range.

With the Mutual Funds owning 85% of the shares outstanding as of June 30,2015 according to Morningstar it appears that the small float and high short interest in the stock are creating a #shortsqueeze.

Be Careful on the Short Side Because Sometimes Wall Street Obviously Doesn't care about Fundamentals

I asked a technical analyst to break down a chart for titan and this is what he shared with me:
A weekly close > 5-week MMA of $12.93 targets the 200-week SMA of $19.68


If you could buy ONE stock on close today which one ? Best gain next Friday's close wins a stocktoberfest.co ticket $spy
— Howard Lindzon (@howardlindzon) Sep. 4 at 02:43 PM


The Most Bullish Social Media Video you may ever see.
The Most Bullish Social Media Video you may ever see.

Titan Machinery Q2 Net Income Of $6,000 Increases Market Capitalization By $40 Million

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN) reportedFY 2016 2nd quarter financials yesterday morning premarket and shares skyrocketed up 20% for the day closing @ $12.39. ($261 million market capitalization).
Fundamental Highlights (including Archives):

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

TITAN Machinery Sales Decline 25%